Trade

Feudal Future Podcast — Navigating U.S.-Mexico Relations in Turbulent Times

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Thu, 08 May 2025 11:03:38 -0400

The fault lines in US-Mexico relations have never been more visible. Our expert panel —featuring former CNN journalist Bruno Lopez and economist Alejandro Chaufen— brings decades of experience to unpacking one of North America's most crucial yet strained relationships.

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The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

The EU's Fury at Trump's Tariffs Is Hypocritical Insanity

Joel Kotkin — Wed, 02 Apr 2025 18:48:18 -0400

Donald Trump’s tariff blitz is not exactly making friends with long-time allies, economists, or the libertarian, free trade Right. His approach has made him persona non grata at publications such as National Review and the Wall Street Journal. Yet although the president wields the tariff stick like a madman swatting flies, there is more logic to his approach than one might glean from much of the press.

Fundamentally, Trump’s tariff policy is an attempt, albeit crude, to reverse decades of unfair trade relations, most notably with Europe. His focus is to force the EU, whose trade policies he has labelled an “atrocity”, to reform its protectionist system, under which tariffs on US-made cars are by some counts four times higher than the equivalent American tariffs on European cars. The situation is similar in such sectors as food, beverages and other agricultural products. In some areas, American products sold in Europe are frequently taxed at 30 per cent or more.

As the historian Michael Lind has pointed out, tariffs have long been a tool in the arsenal of both advanced and developing countries. And they still are. Today, the EU imposes high tariffs on electric vehicles made in China. Other countries, including rising power India, have levied tariffs of 70 to 100 per cent on electric vehicles from China and elsewhere. Few Canadians recognise that Canada, beneficiary of a $100 billion merchandise trade surplus with the US last year, has been highly protectionist and for a long time. Canada recently levied a 100 per cent tariff on imported Chinese EVs and a 25 per cent surtax on Chinese steel and aluminium.

To deal with Trump’s policies, America’s traditional allies need to recognise that the greatest threat to the West is not American tariffs but China’s massive drive to dominate the market in manufactured goods in virtually every industry. In the US, notes an EPI study, the growth of China’s trade deficit cost roughly 3.7 million jobs between 2001 and 2018.

Until recently, multinational corporations and financial markets have been remarkably untroubled by Beijing’s stated aim by 2050 of becoming the leading global superpower. But those in the public realm have to take a longer range view that recognises that the West’s greatest long-term challenge lies in relentless Chinese mercantilism.

This West’s trade disadvantage with Beijing extends from the most prosaic to the cutting-edge. During the pandemic, the US found itself dependent on China, the source of the affliction, even for the most basic medical supplies. “Why can’t the greatest economy in the history of the world produce swabs, face masks and ventilators in adequate supply?” asked Lawrence Summers, the former head of President Obama’s National Economic Council, on social media on March 21 2020.

America’s inability to produce even basic goods has not fundamentally altered since. The generally anti-Trump media complains how companies cannot even source screws in the United States. Although chief executives and libertarian economists may see this as a reason to keep the floodgates open, a rational person might suspect that an America that cannot produce even such simple goods will not long lead the world.

But Chinese dominance is also spreading to the most critical sectors. In 2023, it consumed roughly half of the world’s steel and emerged as one of the world’s largest automobile producers – electric cars largely powered by coal play a key role. It has also invested heavily to take over the aerospace industry from both Boeing and Europe’s Airbus. It has grown rapidly in sectors like semiconductors, batteries, airplanes, and automotive parts, and now accounts for more than half of all world shipbuilding. Unlike Japan in the 1980s, whose growth threatened American industries, China’s rise also threatens America’s basic ability to produce advanced military goods.

Once this is understood, it seems fairly insane for Europeans and the UK to be criticising the United States while continuing to turn a blind eye to China. Britain’s Keir Starmer’s attempt to cosy up to China in order to “Trump proof” his realm seems the road to ever great irrelevancy, although perhaps his Labour Party can benefit in its drive to curb free speech from the censorship masters in Beijing.

European leaders need to realise that Trump’s desires are not revolutionary, but similar to their own: if you want to do business in our country, create jobs and production here. This is not only reliant on getting key trade partners to reduce their protective barriers but to force companies, like Honda, to scrap plans for shifting production of new models to Mexico and instead make them in Indiana. Both Eli Lilly and chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor have already been persuaded to invest billions in the United States, when their products in the past could easily be shipped in from abroad.

Of course many businesses – notably those with strong Chinese supply links – will be reluctant to accept that the current economic regime is over. But others are now seeking out more domestic suppliers. McKinsey surveyed supply chain executives and found consistent concern that supply chains are too vulnerable to international disruption.

Rather than rant, European, UK and Canadian political leaders need to push for negotiations aimed at equalising tariff barriers and look for ways to build a reinvigorated economic and security alliance. Trump, after all, is a committed dealmaker, and perhaps can be persuaded to ratchet down his demands and give countries, including his own, time to adjust.

Trump will, and rightfully so, work to unravel existing trade barriers, and recalibrate relations by ending nearly 80 years of now unsustainable American economic and security protection. America’s president may be half-mad, but our friends abroad also need to realise that, without a strong tie to America, they would likely be reduced to little more than Chinese vassal states.

This piece first appeared at: Telegraph.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Feudal Future Podcast: Exploring the Paradox of Peace and Economics in Taiwan-China Relations

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 28 Feb 2024 13:33:32 -0500

Discover the nuanced complexities of Taiwan-China relations and the unexpected preferences of their people toward peace, as we're joined by Raymond Kuo from the Rand Corporation and Professor Robert Koepp of Chapman University.

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The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Feudal Future Podcast: An Explanation on the Global Energy Crisis

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 23 Dec 2022 14:00:58 -0500

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by author and energy expert, Robert Bryce, and structural engineer, Hügo Krüger, to discuss the global energy crisis.

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JOIN US: January 20th at Chapman University: The Future of Cities

The Western US has long been an innovator in developing the urban form, notably in the creation of suburbanized, multipolar cities. Yet now that model is showing strain, and there’s a fierce debate about how western cities should grow. The panel will explore these issues, from homelessness to high housing prices and the impact of regulation.

Register at: events.r20.constantcontact.com/register

Latest Research: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the new report on restoring The California Dream.

If you haven’t downloaded the report, see it here

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For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

America's Vulnerability: The Country's Need for Reshoring Semiconductors

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 05 Aug 2022 12:23:52 -0400

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Robert Casanova, director of industry and economic policy at the Semiconductor Industry Association, and Bill Amelio, CEO of DoubleCheck Solutions, to discuss America’s need to reshore the semiconductor industry.

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Mixed News on Trade

Matthew Leiphon — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 17:56:35 -0500

The Department of Commerce released trade balance numbers for January this morning, reporting that the monthly deficit jumped to $46.3 billion, up from $40.3 billion in December. Economists had been projecting a deficit of $41.5 billion. The larger than expected number may lead some economists to “lower their estimates for economic growth in the January-March quarter based on the wider deficit.”

However, buried within the dark clouds is a silver lining. U.S. exports actually hit an all time high of $167.7 billion during the month, potentially showing signs of a strengthening economic recovery. This is up from $125.4 billion in January, 2009 and $144.7 billion in January, 2010. American exporters appear to be on a roll, and gaining momentum.

Exports of services also continues to be a point of trade strength for the nation. While year over year increases were smaller than those in overall exports (47.2 billion, up from 44.2 billion in January, 2010) the nation actually had one month trade surplus of $13.4 billion in services. This is up from past years, and is not an anomaly- the nation has marked a trade surplus in the services sector throughout the past two years.

The increase in the size of the deficit can largely be attributed to issues in two areas; petroleum and consumer goods. As oil prices continue to rise, the cost of oil imports have surged as well. In January alone, the nation imported 34.9 billion in petroleum products, leading to a deficit of $26.7 billion. This represents an increase of 21.5% over last January, and up 4.7% over the previous month.

The rise in the consumer goods deficit may actually be good news, of a sort. While the deficit itself is disconcerting, the detailed numbers show that imports of apparel, textiles, appliances, and other household related products are up notably. While increased imports in these sectors serve to worsen our trade balance with China (up to $23.3 billion in January, from $20.7 billion in December), increased demand for such retail goods could be a sign that the American economy, largely centered around consumer spending, is starting to catch some momentum again. According to economist Joseph LaVorgna, interviewed by CNN, while the deficit is wider, “the numbers actually imply a very healthy economy… The gain in imports was in every category. Domestic demand is still very firm and producers are rebuilding their inventories.”

Obama Administration to Repeat Protectionist Errors of 1930s?

Wendell Cox — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 23:51:56 -0400

In a potentially ominous development, Television New Zealand reports that the Obama government has postponed free trade agreement discussions under the proposed Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (P4) with New Zealand, Singapore, Brunei and Chile. Along with the United States, Australia, Peru and Vietnam were to have been involved in the expanded free trade area. It is reported that the postponement is related to an assessment of trade policy by the Obama administration. An inward turning US trade policy, favored by President Obama's organized labor allies even before the economic meltdown, could set the nation on a protectionist course not unlike the measures that prolonged the Great Depression.

In the Doldrums: Another Economic Indicator Heads South

Matthew Leiphon — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 03:51:19 -0400

Lost amidst headlines of bank nationalization, credit market woes, and a worldwide equities rout, was news that the Baltic Dry Index, an index seen as a measure of world trade flows and future economic activity, has been in freefall this week. A drop of 8% on Tuesday was bookended by drops of around 11% on both Monday and Wednesday.

According to the Guardian, the index is

"seen as a good leading indicator of future economic production levels because it charts the cost of freight movements in 26 of the world's biggest shipping lanes of "dry" materials, such as coal, iron ore and grain which feed into the production of finished goods some weeks or months ahead."

Since reaching a peak in July, the BDI has plummeted over 80%, leading to fears that demand for commodities, particularly in China, may be on the wane. This could, reports the Guardian, mean that the "great Asian miracle economy might now be coming apart at the seams, in spite of the official figures suggesting everything is still fine."

Agricultural areas throughout the United States, buoyed by recent high prices for commodities, have thus far shown economic strength in the face of increasingly difficult conditions nationwide. The good times may be, if not coming towards an end, facing some sort of moderation.

Effects of the credit crunch have already begun to show some impact on international commodities trade. Last week, Canada's Financial Post reported that grain shipments had begun to pile up in ports as international buyers found themselves unable to obtain letters of credit. In the words of one marketing expert, the situation is a "nightmare." According to experts interviewed by Bloomberg, "letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen," and as a result, "nothing is moving". Such credit issues, in connection with weakened demand for commodities in a potential worldwide recession and a downturn in international trade, may mean that communities around the nation will soon face a more difficult economic picture.