China

The EU's Fury at Trump's Tariffs Is Hypocritical Insanity

Joel Kotkin — Wed, 02 Apr 2025 18:48:18 -0400

Donald Trump’s tariff blitz is not exactly making friends with long-time allies, economists, or the libertarian, free trade Right. His approach has made him persona non grata at publications such as National Review and the Wall Street Journal. Yet although the president wields the tariff stick like a madman swatting flies, there is more logic to his approach than one might glean from much of the press.

Fundamentally, Trump’s tariff policy is an attempt, albeit crude, to reverse decades of unfair trade relations, most notably with Europe. His focus is to force the EU, whose trade policies he has labelled an “atrocity”, to reform its protectionist system, under which tariffs on US-made cars are by some counts four times higher than the equivalent American tariffs on European cars. The situation is similar in such sectors as food, beverages and other agricultural products. In some areas, American products sold in Europe are frequently taxed at 30 per cent or more.

As the historian Michael Lind has pointed out, tariffs have long been a tool in the arsenal of both advanced and developing countries. And they still are. Today, the EU imposes high tariffs on electric vehicles made in China. Other countries, including rising power India, have levied tariffs of 70 to 100 per cent on electric vehicles from China and elsewhere. Few Canadians recognise that Canada, beneficiary of a $100 billion merchandise trade surplus with the US last year, has been highly protectionist and for a long time. Canada recently levied a 100 per cent tariff on imported Chinese EVs and a 25 per cent surtax on Chinese steel and aluminium.

To deal with Trump’s policies, America’s traditional allies need to recognise that the greatest threat to the West is not American tariffs but China’s massive drive to dominate the market in manufactured goods in virtually every industry. In the US, notes an EPI study, the growth of China’s trade deficit cost roughly 3.7 million jobs between 2001 and 2018.

Until recently, multinational corporations and financial markets have been remarkably untroubled by Beijing’s stated aim by 2050 of becoming the leading global superpower. But those in the public realm have to take a longer range view that recognises that the West’s greatest long-term challenge lies in relentless Chinese mercantilism.

This West’s trade disadvantage with Beijing extends from the most prosaic to the cutting-edge. During the pandemic, the US found itself dependent on China, the source of the affliction, even for the most basic medical supplies. “Why can’t the greatest economy in the history of the world produce swabs, face masks and ventilators in adequate supply?” asked Lawrence Summers, the former head of President Obama’s National Economic Council, on social media on March 21 2020.

America’s inability to produce even basic goods has not fundamentally altered since. The generally anti-Trump media complains how companies cannot even source screws in the United States. Although chief executives and libertarian economists may see this as a reason to keep the floodgates open, a rational person might suspect that an America that cannot produce even such simple goods will not long lead the world.

But Chinese dominance is also spreading to the most critical sectors. In 2023, it consumed roughly half of the world’s steel and emerged as one of the world’s largest automobile producers – electric cars largely powered by coal play a key role. It has also invested heavily to take over the aerospace industry from both Boeing and Europe’s Airbus. It has grown rapidly in sectors like semiconductors, batteries, airplanes, and automotive parts, and now accounts for more than half of all world shipbuilding. Unlike Japan in the 1980s, whose growth threatened American industries, China’s rise also threatens America’s basic ability to produce advanced military goods.

Once this is understood, it seems fairly insane for Europeans and the UK to be criticising the United States while continuing to turn a blind eye to China. Britain’s Keir Starmer’s attempt to cosy up to China in order to “Trump proof” his realm seems the road to ever great irrelevancy, although perhaps his Labour Party can benefit in its drive to curb free speech from the censorship masters in Beijing.

European leaders need to realise that Trump’s desires are not revolutionary, but similar to their own: if you want to do business in our country, create jobs and production here. This is not only reliant on getting key trade partners to reduce their protective barriers but to force companies, like Honda, to scrap plans for shifting production of new models to Mexico and instead make them in Indiana. Both Eli Lilly and chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor have already been persuaded to invest billions in the United States, when their products in the past could easily be shipped in from abroad.

Of course many businesses – notably those with strong Chinese supply links – will be reluctant to accept that the current economic regime is over. But others are now seeking out more domestic suppliers. McKinsey surveyed supply chain executives and found consistent concern that supply chains are too vulnerable to international disruption.

Rather than rant, European, UK and Canadian political leaders need to push for negotiations aimed at equalising tariff barriers and look for ways to build a reinvigorated economic and security alliance. Trump, after all, is a committed dealmaker, and perhaps can be persuaded to ratchet down his demands and give countries, including his own, time to adjust.

Trump will, and rightfully so, work to unravel existing trade barriers, and recalibrate relations by ending nearly 80 years of now unsustainable American economic and security protection. America’s president may be half-mad, but our friends abroad also need to realise that, without a strong tie to America, they would likely be reduced to little more than Chinese vassal states.

This piece first appeared at: Telegraph.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Feudal Future Podcast: Exploring the Paradox of Peace and Economics in Taiwan-China Relations

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 28 Feb 2024 13:33:32 -0500

Discover the nuanced complexities of Taiwan-China relations and the unexpected preferences of their people toward peace, as we're joined by Raymond Kuo from the Rand Corporation and Professor Robert Koepp of Chapman University.

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India Passed China in Population Last Year: Data

Wendell Cox — Wed, 18 Jan 2023 11:51:28 -0500

It has long been expected that China’s population would soon begin declining and India would become the world’s most populated nation. Most recently, this was expected to happen in 2023. But it appears to have surely happened in 2022.

The new population estimate released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates a loss of 850,000 to a population of 1,411,750,000 in 2022. India’s 2022 population has not been announced, but it is clear that it will be greater than that of China. In 2021, India’s population was 1,407,560,000, according to the World Bank. In 2021, India added 11.2 million residents, down from 13.3 million from 2020 to 2021. The United Nations has projected a gain of 9.5 million for India in 2022.

It seems likely that India’s population increased at least by the 9.5 million projected by the United Nations in 2022. This would give India a population of at least 1,417,000,000 in 2022, more than 5,000,000 above the population of China (Figure).

It is hard to imagine any circumstance that would prevent India’s 2022 population from exceeding that of China. COVID deaths, for example, have been only 530,000 since the beginning of the pandemic, so that the 2022 death toll could not reduce the projected gain by much.

India’s population pre-eminence awaits final confirmation with the official 2022 population estimates.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Joel Kotkin talks with Robert Bryce on 'The Power Hungry Podcast'

Robert Bryce — Wed, 23 Mar 2022 21:36:26 -0400

In his second appearance on the Power Hungry Podcast, Kotkin discusses his recent article for Quillette, “The New Great Game,” how China and Russia are allying against the West, why America needs “a new nationalism” to counter this alliance, how California’s administrative state is crushing the poor and the middle class, Michael Shellenberger’s gubernatorial bid, energy, housing, and why despite his many concerns, he remains bullish on the future of the United States.

Joel Kotkin is a demographer, journalist, author, and executive editor of NewGeography.com.

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International Design Webinar

New Geography — Fri, 19 Nov 2021 16:59:48 -0500

You are invited to attend an online international Bookshop Barnie with Professor Xing RUAN (based in Shanghai) in conversation with Austin Williams (London).

Professor Xing Ruan is Dean at the School of Design at Shanghai Jiao Tong University in China and his latest book is "Confucius' Courtyards: Architecture, Philosophy, and the Good Life in China" (to be published soon). The book has been described as “a truly magnificent work of scholarship for the understanding of China.”

If you want to understand Chinese society and civilization, its mindset and morality, this is the book to read.

DATE: Saturday 27th November 2021
TIME: 1pm-2:30pm (UK), 9pm-10:30pm (China), 8am-9:30am (New York)
ALL WELCOME(FREE)
REGISTER AT: Eventbrite

Feudal Future Podcast: The Reshoring Revolution — Is This the Future of America?

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 13 Sep 2021 13:19:06 -0400

On this episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by JR Turner, managing director of the Americas, Michelle Comerford, project director and industrial supply chain practice leader, and Harry Moser, founder and president of The Reshoring Initiative. The panel takes a deep dive into reshoring. “Reshoring” is the practice of bringing manufacturing and services back to the United States from overseas. This process can help balance trade and budget deficits, reduce unemployment by creating well-paying manufacturing jobs, and develop a skilled workforce.

[02:24] Supply chain collapses

[06:42] China and reshoring

[21:00] Labor shortages in supply chain

[32:38] Inflation

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About our episode guests:

Michelle Comerford develops corporate location strategies and executes site selection projects for BLS & Co.’s manufacturing and distribution clients. Based in Cleveland, Michelle has worked across a range of industries during her 13-year career. She is an expert in transportation/logistics cost analysis, and has advised numerous clients on site selection decisions with an emphasis on supply chain network optimization, inbound and outbound transportation costs, and customer service requirements.

Harry Moser founded the Reshoring Initiative to help bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Largely due to the success of the Reshoring Initiative, Harry was inducted into the Industry Week Manufacturing Hall of Fame 2010 and was named Quality Magazine’s Quality Professional of the year for 2012. Harry participated in President Obama’s 2012 Insourcing Forum at the White House, won the Jan. 2013 The Economist debate on outsourcing and offshoring, and received the Manufacturing Leadership Council’s Industry Advocacy Award in 2014.

JR Turners partnership with Chargeurs has a presence in 90 countries, which performs as a global leader in industrial niche markets of 4 core business: Temporary surface protection, Technical garment interlining, Technical textiles functionalization, and high-end Merinos fibers. The Group employs more than 2000 collaborators in 45 countries, over 5 continents. Its 4 business lines capture outstanding expertise, the power of innovation, high technical skills, performance and sustainable development.

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Feudal Future Podcast — Inside the Republic: China's History From Leading Historian Ross Terrill

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Thu, 02 Sep 2021 11:55:34 -0400

On this episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Ross Terrill, China specialist and Associate in Research at Harvard's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. The panel takes a deep dive into the history of China and the future of the republic.

[05:00] Afghanistan and China

[16:14] China’s aggressiveness

[25:14] China and capital markets

[39:38] Class and China

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Feudal Future Podcast — Madness in the Ruling Class: Who is Leading Our Country?

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 21 Jun 2021 15:38:30 -0400

On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Julius Krein, editor of American Affairs, and Aaron Renn, an opinion-leading urban analyst, consultant, speaker, and writer on a mission to help America’s cities and people thrive and find real success in the 21st century.

Julius Krein is the editor of American Affairs. American Affairs is a quarterly journal of public policy and political thought. It was founded to provide a forum for people who believe that the conventional partisan platforms are no longer relevant to the most pressing challenges facing our country. The obsolescent ideologies and expectations of previous decades are constraining our political discourse. The hyper-partisan posturing of our politics masks an underlying conformity and complacency in our intellectual life. American Affairs, by contrast, seeks to advance a more ambitious discussion of the fundamental issues and divides of our time.

Aaron Renn focuses on urban, economic development, and infrastructure policy in the greater American Midwest. He also regularly contributes to and is cited by national and global media outlets. He is a columnist for Governing magazine and his work has appeared in the The Guardian (UK), The New York Times, and The Washington Post, along with many others. Renn was a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute from 2015-2019 and is a Contributing Editor at its quarterly magazine City Journal. Prior to his work in public policy, Renn had 15 year business career in management and technology consulting, where he was a partner at Accenture. He also founded the urban data analytics software platform Telestrian, which continues to underpin his work on cities.

[ 2:48] Changes in Wall Street and the financial community

[10:01] The effect of elite thinking on the middle class

[30:30] Is generational change next

[42:19] Are we the next Brazil?

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
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Feudal Future Podcast — The War on Space: the Battle No Country Wants to Lose

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 24 May 2021 16:30:32 -0400

On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by geopolitical analyst, Brandon J. Weichert author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, to discuss a real-life version of Star Wars.

Brandon J. Weichert is a geopolitical analyst who manages The Weichert Report: World News Done Right. He is also a contributor to The American Spectator and contributing editor at American Greatness. Recently, Brandon has become a contributor to Real Clear Public Affairs and his national security writings have appeared at Real Clear Politics, Real Clear World, Real Clear Defense, and Real Clear Policy. He also travels the country briefing elements of the Department of Defense and various private groups on national security and emerging technology issues. A recovering Congressional staffer, Brandon holds an M.A. in Statecraft and National Security Affairs from the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. and is an Associate Member of New College at Oxford University. Brandon lives by Herman Kahn’s mantra that, “I’m against fashionable thinking.” Therefore, his entire life’s work has been predicated on challenging conventional wisdom and assumptions on a variety of matters, notably in national security. He lives with his wife and daughters in Southwest Florida and can be reached via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

[2:33] Space Pearl Harbor

[15:01] Elon Musk & China

[23:30] Policies on Space

[28:30] Educated Elites and Space

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Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

Feudal Future Podcast — Examining China's Urban Growth, with Austin Williams

New Geography — Mon, 01 Mar 2021 13:55:17 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Austin Williams. Austin Rhys Williams is course leader/senior lecturer in PG Dip Professional Practice in Architecture at Kingston School of Art; and honorary research fellow at XJTLU University in China.

He is the director of the Future Cities Project, China correspondent for the Architectural Review and has written for a range of publications; from the Times Literary Supplement to Top Gear; from Dezeen to The Economist.

His latest books are "China's Urban Revolution: Understanding Chinese Eco-cities" (Bloomsbury, 2017) and "New Chinese Architecture: Twenty Women Building the Future" (Thames & Hudson, forthcoming, 2019). His previous books include: "The Enemies of Progress", "The Future of Community" and "The Lure of the City". He co-founded the mantownhuman manifesto (featured in Penguin Classics "100 Artists' Manifestos") and the New Narratives initiative. (Kingston)

[2:30] Austin and Joel discuss the differences in urbanism between the West and China.

[13:30] Austin explains China’s vision for the future with artificial intelligence.

[15:30] Marshall, Austin and Joel discuss Jack Ma and independent thought.

[27:04] The episode ends with a discussion of economics, population control and China’s demographics.

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

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Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.

Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Learn more about Austin Williams.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.

Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Learn about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.