California

Feudal Future Podcast — Newsom's Next Move

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 04 Nov 2025 20:03:38 -0500

A governor with national ambitions, a party tug‑of‑war, and a state wrestling with affordability—this conversation goes straight at the question on everyone’s mind: can Gavin Newsom sell hope to a country tired of anger without getting buried by California’s record? We bring together seasoned strategists to weigh why prediction markets love his chances, how a relentless work ethic and podcast‑first media game reshape reach, and whether a transactional political style beats an old‑school “vision thing” when attention is fragmented and narratives move at internet speed.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, Associate Director of the Center for Demographics and Policy, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Buy Joel’s latest book, ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Newsom, the Legislature, and $20 Billion for Doubtful High-speed Rail

Wendell Cox — Mon, 15 Sep 2025 12:04:26 -0400

It is reported that California governor Gavin Newsom and the state legislature have agreed to provide $20 billion in funding ($1 billion annually) from the state’s cap and trade program. The California High Speed Rail Authority indicates that the total cost of the Gilroy to Palmdale segment would be $87 billion and would be completed by 2038.

There is still a considerable funding gap for the Gilroy to Merced (or Madera) segment. This portion of the route includes expensive tunneling through Pacheco Pass. Then there is the Bakersfield to Palmdale segment over Tehachapi Pass which is probably even more challenging.

If the present plan works out (and no one would be more surprised at that than me), a passenger getting on the train in San Francisco might wait up to three hours for the last part of the trip to Los Angeles. Of course, CHSRA could substitute bus connection service for anything they don’t finish, like the Amtrak San Joaquin’s do already on the Bakersfield to Los Angeles segment.

CHSRA indicated that this agreement “resolves all identified funding gaps for the Early Operating Segment (Merced to Palmdale).” I doubt it. The scaled back project could take many more years and many billions more.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a Senior Fellow with Unleash Prosperity in Washington and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985), which was a predecessor agency to the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro). Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

The New California Land Use (CEQA) Reforms

Wendell Cox — Tue, 08 Jul 2025 16:19:52 -0400

For more than half a century, the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) has been used to block new residential (and other) projects. There is considerable evidence that CEQA has been a major contributor to California’s housing price crisis. According to The Wall Street Journal, “has been used by opponents to block almost any kind of development project.”

Over most of the last decade, a number of legislative reforms have been enacted to address the severe unaffordability and constrained housing supply in the state. Yet, from 2019 to 2024, building permits have dropped by nearly 10%, according to Census Bureau data.

Last week, Governor Gavin Newsom set passage of CEQA housing reforms as a condition of signing the state’s budget act. The principal reforms exempt some housing projects from CEQA.

To be exempt from CEQA challenges, a housing project must be infill and within a Census Bureau urban area (see Los Angeles Densest Large Urban Area). This means that Greenfield development, often the target of CEQA suits, could not be exempt.

Projects up to 20 acres can be exempted. The buildings must be 85 feet tall or less. This is approximately eight stories. Minimum housing unit densities would need to be from 5 to 15 housing units per acre. In metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles (and other metropolitan areas with more than 2,000,000 residents), the minimum housing densities would be 15 units per acre in cities with more than 25,000 residents. This high residential density means that the reform is likely to result in virtually no single family permits (a type of development despised by the planning orthodoxy but preferred by more households).

Generally, the minimum densities are higher than the already developed areas. As a result, the CEQA reforms are less an affordability program and more a densification program. It is worth noting that California already has the highest urban population densities in the nation, according to the latest Census Bureau data (2020), at 4,789 per square mile. The latest Census Bureau data shows California to have the three densest larger urban areas in the nation (Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose). New York is fourth densest, with its sprawling suburbs weighing down its urban density).

Some analysts expect that the CEQA reforms will produce substantial new housing construction. This mirrors expectations expressed for the previously enacted reforms, which have had little effect. Part of the problem is that analysts portray the California housing debacle as a supply problem. But it is much more an affordability problem.

The problem is the extent to which California land markets have been distorted through strategies like urban growth boundaries and state planning requirements, such as the Sustainable Communities provisions of Senate Bill 375 (2008). These kinds of regulations have been shown to materially escalate land prices throughout the urban area. New York Times journalist Conor Dougherty recently suggested that Greenfield development will be required “to fix the housing crisis.” I would not be surprised if Governor Newsom’s next wave of reform produces little more than those that preceded it.

Trump Says No More Federal Money to California Boondoggle

Wendell Cox — Fri, 09 May 2025 16:46:15 -0400

President Trump announced that the federal government would no longer provide financial support to the California High-Speed Rail project, according to the New York Times.

According to Trump, “That train is the worst cost overrun I’ve ever seen,” “It’s, like, totally out of control.” He added: “This government is not going to pay.”

Izzy Gordon, spokesman for Governor Gain Newsom responded: “With 50 major structures built, walking away now as we enter the track-laying phase would be reckless — wasting billions already invested and letting job-killers cede a generational infrastructure advantage to China.”

In fact, the recklessness was California’s alone, which chose to spend billions of money that it did not have, apparently on the assumption that the taxpayers of the other 49 states would have no alternative but to continue funding. The “unused 50 major structures” could ultimately become a memorial to an overly costly project that had been oversold from the start. An appropriate name could be “Stonehenge in the Valley.”

Recently, Unleash Prosperity released my report (“California High-Speed Rail: Still Stuck at the Station”) suggesting that the presently estimated $128 billion ultimate cost to link Los Angeles to San Francisco could double that amount ($250 billion), if the cost escalation of the first third of the project continues. As the state established Peer Review Group has said, so far the work has been in the easy part. The much more complicated segments from Palmdale to Los Angeles

Feudal Future Podcast — Challenges and Solutions for California's Economy

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 19 Feb 2025 18:57:00 -0500

Is California losing its status as a global innovation powerhouse? Join us for a compelling conversation with Dr. Ken Murphy as we explore the shifting dynamics of California’s economic landscape. We question whether the iconic tech hub is maintaining its edge or if it’s at risk of devolving into a neo-feudalist economy. While Silicon Valley continues to thrive, other regions like Los Angeles and Sacramento face significant hurdles. Dive deep into the challenges of remote work, high operational costs, and regulatory burdens that could threaten California’s standing in high-tech industries.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Feudal Future Podcast — Breaking Down Barriers in Housing Development

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 04 Feb 2025 19:17:26 -0500

Discover why building a home in California now costs over $1.2 million per unit as we navigate the maze of the state's housing crisis with Gary London and Jennifer Hernandez. These experts shed light on the staggering decline in permits for single and multifamily homes.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Feudal Future Podcast Empowering California's Future: The Latino Workforce and Socio-Economic

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 31 May 2024 20:05:01 -0400

Unlock the transformative potential of California’s future as we uncover the influential role of the Latino population in our latest Feudal Future Podcast episode. With Latinos projected to make up 78% of all new U.S. workers by 2030, their impact on the state's socio-economic landscape is monumental. Join us and our distinguished guests, Soledad Ursúa, Jennifer Hernandez, Sen Gloria Romero and Karla López del Río as we navigate the complexities of income disparity, homeownership challenges, and educational shortcomings faced by this community. Discover how California's ambitious carbon neutrality goals uniquely affect Latino workers and the critical need for policies that foster their success.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Feudal Future Podcast: Nurturing California Industries

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 09 Aug 2023 17:21:11 -0400

On this special Feudal Future episode, Joel Kotkin sits down with Marshall Toplansky & Sougata Poddar as they discuss Chapman University's brand new report on nurturing California industries.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT HERE:
https://www.chapman.edu/Nurturing California Industries

Find more podcast episode at joelkotkin.com/JoelKotkin.com.

Feudal Future Podcast: The End of the Valley

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 06 Jun 2023 13:39:41 -0400

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by American entrepreneur, Rony Abovitz, and author Michael Malone to discuss the future of Silicon Valley.

Listen on Apple Podcast
Listen on Google Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch the Video

Latest Research: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the new report on Nurturing California Industries.

If you haven’t downloaded the report, see it here

Visit Our Page: www.TheFeudalFuturePodcast.com

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Gavin Newsom Meets Reality with California’s Budget Deficit

Joel Kotkin — Tue, 16 May 2023 11:42:47 -0400

Gavin Newsom, the would–be president many Democrats hope might be an alternative to the current dodderer–in–chief, has landed himself in hot water. Once an enthusiastic backer of just about every progressive cause, the California Governor must now cope with a budget deficit that has already ballooned to $32 billion. This will no doubt limit his ability to spread largesse to the party’s loyal constituencies.

Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the coming battle over reparations for African Americans. Newsom approved a reparations task force in the midst of the frenzy which followed the murder of George Floyd, but he now faces a bill that could top $800 billion. Newsom has already hinted that the reparations discussion is about “more than cash payments”, but in reality cash — estimated as at least $125,000 per individual but sometimes much higher — is what this is all about.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.