COVID-19

Update: Urban Density and COVID-19 Fatalities

Wendell Cox — Wed, 08 Dec 2021 18:14:41 -0500

The latest fatality rates as of December 5, 2021 from COVID-19 are shown in Figure 1. This is derived from data reported by usafacts.org. The data includes all the pandemic period, that began in the first quarter of 2020.

Fatality rates data continue to show an association between higher county urban densities and their fatality rates. Urban density is used as a surrogate for the overcrowding that increases exposure density. The issue is not density per se, however, but consistent with crowding which is often found in dense urban areas.

Death rates remain near or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 10,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties account for 91% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million). Death rates are higher at densities above 10,000 per square mile and below 1,000 per square mile.

The death rates in counties with higher urban densities have improved materially since our first report (July 9, 2020). The earlier, higher rates were influenced by the pre-lockdown fatality data, with improvements as lockdowns were typical for more than a year. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Ask the Experts: The World After COVID

New Geography — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:05:46 -0400

On September 1, 2021, Chapman University’s Vice President for Research, Thomas Piechota hosted Ask the Experts Virtual Town Hall: The World After COVID. The event featured Richard Florida, the world’s premier urban expert, who will discuss the global future with leading experts from the US, Europe, Africa, and Asia. Florida, the author of The Creative Class and the New Urban Crisis, will be followed by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman; Behki Mahlobo, analyst and economic researcher at the Center of Risk Analysis in Johannesburg; Li Sun, expert of Chinese cities and professor at the University of Leeds; and Laure Mandeville-Tostain, senior reporter for Le Figaro in Paris.

View more details about Ask the Experts Virtual Town Hall: The World After COVID.

Feudal Future Podcast: What Works Best? The Office Debate: Work From Home vs. Work at the Office

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 02 Aug 2021 14:47:33 -0400

On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Doug Holte, the President of Irvine Company Office Properties and formerly served as a West Coast regional partner with the international real estate firm Hines, Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics (GWA), a research and consulting firm that helps employers understand and prepare for the future of work, and Andrew Segal, co-founder of Stemmons Enterprise software company. The panel discusses the effects of remote work and going back to the office that has exposed through the pandemic.

Join us for our free online event September 1st at 9am PST: THE WORLD AFTER COVID. The event will feature Richard Florida, the world’s premier urban expert, who will discuss the global future with leading experts from US, Europe, Africa and Asia. Florida, author of The Creative Class and the New Urban Crisis, will be followed by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in urban futures at Chapman; Behki Mahlobo, analyst and economic researcher at the Center of Risk Analysis in Johannesburg; Li Sun, expert of Chinese cities and professor at University of Leeds; and Laure Mandeville-Tostain, senior reporter for Le Figaro in Paris.

For more information click here:

www.chapman.edu/asktheexperts

To register for the event click here:

chapman.zoom.us

[02:50] Defining remote work

[05:29] Occupancy in suburban offices

[18:45] Geography of offices

[35:58] Threats with commercial real estate

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

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Ask the Experts Virtual Town Hall: The World After COVID

New Geography — Sat, 31 Jul 2021 20:40:04 -0400

Chapman University’s Vice President for Research, Thomas Piechota hosts Ask the Experts Virtual Town Hall: The World After COVID on Wednesday, September 1st from 9:00 – 10:00 AM PST. The event will feature Richard Florida, the world’s premier urban expert, who will discuss the global future with leading experts from US, Europe, Africa and Asia. Florida, author of The Creative Class and the New Urban Crisis, will be followed by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in urban futures at Chapman University; Behki Mahlobo, analyst and economic researcher at the Center of Risk Analysis in Johannesburg; Li Sun, expert of Chinese cities and professor at University of Leeds; and Laure Mandeville-Tostain, senior reporter for Le Figaro in Paris.

The discussion will be moderated by Marshall Toplansky of Chapman University.

Learn more about the Ask the Experts series here

Urban Density and Covid Death Rates: Update Through April 2021

Wendell Cox — Mon, 03 May 2021 12:35:37 -0400

The latest death rates as of April 30, 2021 from COVID-19 are displayed by US county urban density in Figure 1. This analysis is based on data reported by usafacts.org.

Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have the low to medium urban population densities characteristic suburban areas and account for 81% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million).

All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.

Despite considerable press coverage of fatality rates in rural areas, the fully rural counties (without urban areas), death rate remains 14% above the national average, virtually the same as at the end of 2020.

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities with their widespread overcrowding, especially in insufficiently ventilated, overcrowded enclosures, such as in offices, elevators, transit, retail establishments and housing. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. Economic activity in the nation’s largest and densest urban cores (central business districts) is a small fraction of normal, as a result of strict lockdowns.

Australia: Detached Home Building Record Predicted

Wendell Cox — Thu, 18 Feb 2021 15:03:12 -0500

Housing Industry Organization Chief Economist Tim Reardon has predicted that detached housing production will set an all time record in 2021 in Australia. The demographic shifts resulting from the Covid-19 Pandemic are the root cause. According to Reardon: ““Regional locations in many states are showing a larger increase in activity than capital cities as the population moves away from inner city living.” This mirrors a trend reported in other nations.

More at: links.hia.com.au.

Feudal Future Podcast — A Test of Strength: Pandemics Through the Eye of Religion, with Rev. John L. McCullough

New Geography — Mon, 01 Feb 2021 12:33:48 -0500

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Rev. John L. McCullough, President Emeritus of Church World Service. CWS is a global ecumenical organization specializing in Development and Humanitarian Assistance, Immigration and Refugee Services, Justice and Human Rights. Headquartered in NYC with primary offices in: Bangkok, Belgrade, Buenos Aires, Elkhart (IN), Hanoi, Islamabad, Jakarta, Miami, Nairobi, Phnom Phen, Vientiane, Washington, D.C. CWS is also branded as CROP Hunger Walks, and is a major sponsor of the Ecumenical Advocacy Days. Mission Statement: Church World Service works with partners to eradicate hunger and poverty and to promote peace and justice around the world.

[4:00] Marshall opens up the discussion asking Rev. John what the impact of covid has had on faith-based organizations

[6:45] Joel and Rev. John discuss how developing countries respond to crises without relying on the government

[22:15] Marshall and Rev. John dive into the effect COVID is having on refugees and resettlement across the world

[32:00] Rev. John ends the episode with how religion will reinvent itself through this pandemic

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2020 Year End Summary: Urban Density and COVID Death Rates

Wendell Cox — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 18:42:47 -0500

The latest death rates from COVID-19 are displayed by county urban density in Figure 1. Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have low to medium urban population densities characteristic of suburban and exurban areas and account for 85% of the nation’s population (279 million out of a total population of 328 million). All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Counties without urbanization (fully rural counties) also have higher proportional death rates (Figure 3).

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities because of the overcrowding that often occurs in such environments. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater.

Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Feudal Future Podcast — Chicago & Positioning: Becoming the Next Middle Class Hub

New Geography — Mon, 07 Dec 2020 12:21:37 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Pete Saunders. Pete Saunders is a writer and researcher whose work focuses on urbanism and public policy. He has been the editor and publisher of the Corner Side Yard, an urbanist blog, since 2012. A practicing urban planner, he serves as the community and economic development director for the Chicago suburb of Richton Park, Ill., and is the principal for PDS Consulting, an urban-planning consulting and research firm.

Marshall begins the show asking Pete what he thinks Chicago can expect being under a new Biden administration. Pete began to explain that not everything seems cut and clear and to be wary buying into a new administration so quickly. Pete went into details and programs that Biden could implement in order to unite Chicago and establish them once again as a metropolitan powerhouse.

Joel chimed in and was curious to see if the new administration would be able to help the crime rates in Chicago. Pete stated that the crime is not something an administration can change, but that it is more of a societal change that needs to happen.

Marshall added that not only crime was something to be concerned about, but also the amount of talent Chicago raises in its own states, and exports out to other parts of the US and how that was taking away from Chicago. Joel added that if Chicago wants to make changes, they need to be more welcoming to new business and create an environment that is welcoming to the business owners. Pete agreed without hesitation.

As the episode ends, Joel and Pete look hopeful in seeing Chicago make steps to revive the Midwest and give power again to the middle class.

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Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

Feudal Future Podcast — COVID mRNA Vaccines and the State of Future Pandemics

New Geography — Mon, 23 Nov 2020 13:58:53 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by guests Joe Payne and Tony Lemus. Joseph E. Payne is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Arcturus Therapeutics. Arcturus therapeutics is a leading clinical-stage messenger RNA medicines company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics for rare diseases and vaccines.

Their conversation begins with Marshall asking Joe about different vaccines that are being approved rapidly and how they are receiving emergency permits for the market. Joe breaks down scientifically how mRNA works with the body and how the results look promising for covid19. Arcturus is in the middle of phase 1 and 2 trials with over 100 participants. Joe continued, highlighting that their vaccine could be a single dose vaccine as well as a low dosage.

Tony joined the conversation and added that the predictive models, coupled with the clinical trials, using AI, has sped the process of approval and are able to leap-frog the FDA with less red tape.

Joel brought up a problem. If multiple vaccines come out, which ones will be the best? Joe states that efficacy is the current issue, but the conversation will shift to convenience; cost and single administration. Joel continues and asks if this vaccine will stop the wave of pandemics due to the virus. Joe states that COVID-19 is here to stay regardless of the vaccine and that it will take time for herd immunity to develop.

As the episode ends, Joe explains how the beauty of mRNA vaccines is through a non-viral delivery and how this vaccine will be the benchmark for future pandemics.

Listen on Apple Podcast

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch Episode on Youtube

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.
Learn more about Joel Kotkin.
Learn about Joe Payne.
Learn about Tony Lemus.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

COVID-19

Update: Urban Density and COVID-19 Fatalities

Ask the Experts: The World After COVID

Feudal Future Podcast: What Works Best? The Office Debate: Work From Home vs. Work at the Office

Ask the Experts Virtual Town Hall: The World After COVID

Urban Density and Covid Death Rates: Update Through April 2021

Australia: Detached Home Building Record Predicted

Feudal Future Podcast — A Test of Strength: Pandemics Through the Eye of Religion, with Rev. John L. McCullough

Related:

2020 Year End Summary: Urban Density and COVID Death Rates

Feudal Future Podcast — Chicago & Positioning: Becoming the Next Middle Class Hub

Watch Episode on Youtube

Related:

Feudal Future Podcast — COVID mRNA Vaccines and the State of Future Pandemics

Related: