urban density

Detached Houses on Smaller Lots: Key to L.A.'s High Density

Wendell Cox — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 11:42:05 -0400

Recently, the high density of Los Angeles became an issue in a proposed city of Vancouver high rise development project (six buildings of from 12 to 40 stories). A July 4 Vancouver Sun article, by Susan Lazarak (“Vancouver proposes huge housing development at north end of Granville Bridge”) cited University of British Columbia regional planning professor Michael Hooper to the effect that concentrating tall towers but allowing lower density elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into a high overall density. In particular, he noted that Los Angeles has higher overall density than New York City because L.A. has “vast swaths of middle-density buildings” throughout the city.

Professor Hooper makes a valid and often misunderstood point on tall towers. Indeed, the Corbusian towers, which have been built in many cities, and famously rejected in Paris, are not required to achieve higher densities.

But first, some background…

This article clarifies often misunderstood urban density issues.

First of all, the city (municipality) of Los Angeles is not denser than the city of New York.

However, the Los Angeles urban area is considerably denser than the New York urban area. The urban area is the area of continuous development, and excludes all rural land (by definition, all land that is not urban is rural, according to both Statistics Canada and the US Census Bureau).

For example, the Vancouver urban area (the Statistics Canada term for urban area is “population centre”), stretches from Horseshoe Bay to Langley and Richmond to Maple Ridge and Port Coquitlam (Figure 1, Statistics Canada map of the Vancouver population centre).

Urban areas/population centres are defined by Statistics Canada and the US Census Bureau based on data from small census enumeration zones, without regard to municipal limits or even provincial or state boundaries (such as Ottawa-Gatineau, ON-QC, or Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD).

Moreover, the suburbs of Los Angeles (the part of the urban area outside the city), are about twice as dense as those of New York. This more than compensates for the higher municipal density in New York.

Urban areas are not metropolitan areas (census metropolitan areas). Population centres/urban areas are the highest geographical level at which urban density can be measured, because any higher level is at least partially rural. Metropolitan area densities are combined urban and rural densities.

In the United States, 81% of the land in metropolitan areas with more than 1,000,000 residents was rural in 2010 (see: Rural Character in America’s Metropolitan Areas). The 2021 census indicates that the Vancouver population centre comprises only 32% of the land in the Vancouver census metropolitan area.

Back to Los Angeles and New York…

The United States Census Bureau delineates the land area of urban areas in its census. The current release is based on the 2010 census. The Los Angeles urban area had a population density of 2,702 per square kilometer, more than 30% higher than New York’s 2,054. The Toronto population centre had a density of 3,088 according to the 2021 census, nearly 15% higher than Los Angeles (Figure 2).

The latest data from the American Community Survey (see Note 1) shows that the largest difference in housing types between the Los Angeles and New York urban areas is among single-family detached houses (Figure 3, see Note 2). In Los Angeles, 40% more of the housing stock is detached than in New York (48.4% compared to 34.0%).

The higher density, detached housing suburbs of Los Angeles are contrasted photographically with those of New York, at distances of 24 kilometers/15 miles and 56 kilometers/35 miles from the urban cores (Figures 4 and 5).

Even the San Francisco (2,249) and San Jose (2,267) urban areas have higher urban densities than New York. Like Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose have a larger share of single-family housing and a lower share of multi-family housing than New York — the opposite of what would be expected. As with Los Angeles, the higher densities of the San Francisco and San Jose urban areas compared to New York are driven by their detached housing on smaller lots (Figure 6).

Ironically, Los Angeles has long been considered the epitome of urban sprawl — probably more than any other urban area. If this perception were true, then every large population centre/urban area in Canada and the United States would be denser than Los Angeles. The reality? Only Toronto is denser (Figure 2).

Note 1: The later American Community Survey data for urban areas is based on the land area as defined by the Census Bureau in 2010.

Note 2: The factors contributing to urban density in this article relate only to residential densities. There is no readily available source for the extent of land use by non-residential functions, such as commercial, industrial and public facilities.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

PwC to Employees: Work for Us, Live Anywhere

Wendell Cox — Mon, 04 Oct 2021 11:21:37 -0400

According to the The Wall Street Journal, “The accounting and consulting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP says most of its U.S. employees can now live anywhere in the country, in the latest sign that the pandemic is upending traditional working arrangements in a variety of white-collar roles. The article, by Chip Cutter cites similar development among other major companies. For example, Facebook is expanding eligibility for remote work to “all levels of the company.” Those employees not able to obtain permission to work remotely “would be expected to come into the office, at a minimum, 50% of the time.” This means that employees will be able to work remotely up to a maximum of 50% of the time, a practice virtually unheard of among major companies before the pandemic.

The article also references a Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company survey finding that only 41% of pandemic remote workers “looked forward to returning to the office.” A hybrid approach, working both in the office and remotely, was favored by 29%. Ten percent of workers were not comfortable returning to the office “in any capacity.” This is similar to a research by Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis to the effect that many employees will resist returning to the office, out of a “residual fear of proximity” (infection).

California: Densifying Like No Other

Wendell Cox — Sun, 20 Jun 2021 15:17:44 -0400

We have previously shown that California is the least sprawling state, with an urban population density of 4,304 per square mile of land in 2010 (the last year for which such data is available --- new data will be reported in the 2020 census). This is slightly higher than New York, at 4,181, with its large lot New York City suburbs and low density urbanization upstate. This more than dilutes the effect of the nation’s densest large municipality (New York), which has more than 27,000 per square mile.

California’s urban densification between 2000 and 2010 was simply above and beyond that of any other state. The density of new urban development was 11,100 per square mile. (See: State Urban Density: 2000-2010 and below). This is nearly as dense as the city of Chicago, yet is spread all over the state, from Siskiyou County to Imperial --- and thus includes a lot of areas that can hardly be considered dense urban.

California’s density of new urban development was more than double that of number two --- Oregon, with its tough urban planning law. It is more than five times that of urbanization in the nation.

California has some of the most restrictive land use policies in the nation and there has been much analysis of the relationship between these and rising house prices. With California’s growth rate having dropped by 40% in the 2010s from the 2000s, and now losing population, these contrasts could be shown to be even greater when new data is released.

View or download PDF of statistics

Detached Dwelling Approvals in Australia Break Another Record in April

Wendell Cox — Mon, 07 Jun 2021 20:07:02 -0400

Newgeography.com Context Note: We are pleased to present the following press release from the Housing Industry Association, Australia’s association of home builders. For some years, planners and governments have pursued densification policies that encourage households to choose multi-family rather than detached housing. Historically, detached housing has been dominant in Australia, but in the middle 2010s, multi-family housing was a majority of new construction in some months. With the pandemic, remote working and the increased demand for space — both in houses — and in gardens, detached housing construction rose strongly and again dominates housing construction.

To read the full press release, click here.

Urban Density and Covid Death Rates: Update Through April 2021

Wendell Cox — Mon, 03 May 2021 12:35:37 -0400

The latest death rates as of April 30, 2021 from COVID-19 are displayed by US county urban density in Figure 1. This analysis is based on data reported by usafacts.org.

Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have the low to medium urban population densities characteristic suburban areas and account for 81% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million).

All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.

Despite considerable press coverage of fatality rates in rural areas, the fully rural counties (without urban areas), death rate remains 14% above the national average, virtually the same as at the end of 2020.

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities with their widespread overcrowding, especially in insufficiently ventilated, overcrowded enclosures, such as in offices, elevators, transit, retail establishments and housing. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. Economic activity in the nation’s largest and densest urban cores (central business districts) is a small fraction of normal, as a result of strict lockdowns.

Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability in Ottawa

Frontier Centre for Public Policy — Thu, 29 Apr 2021 11:34:32 -0400

The city of Ottawa is updating its Official Plan. Under consideration are expanding the urban boundary (urban growth boundary) and strengthening of its intensification (densification)policy. These strategies are components of urban containment policy. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability from an international perspective. For the purposes of this report, urban containment policy includes growth management, compact city policy, intensification and any measures that can materially impact the cost of land or housing by rationing or prohibiting greenfield land development (such as urban growth boundaries and intensification mandates).

The Frontier Centre for Public Policy has just released Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability by Wendell Cox, a senior fellow with the Frontier Centre. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability.

In the past two decades there has been growing concern about the deterioration in housing affordability across Canada. From 2000 to 2015, average house prices had risen three times that of before-tax average household incomes. This issue is not isolated to Canada; there has been a significant decline in housing affordability in several countries including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Urban containment policy has been strongly associated with higher house prices relative to incomes. This report also highlights the indirect consequences associated with urban containment, such as higher poverty rates and stunted economic growth.

To read this insightful paper, visit the Frontier Centre for Public Policy website: www.fcpp.org or Click Here.

This piece first appeared on Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

The Frontier Centre for Public Policy is an independent, non-profit organization that undertakes research and education in support of economic growth and social outcomes that will enhance the quality of life in our communities. Through a variety of publications and public forums, the Centre explores policy innovations required to make the prairies region a winner in the open economy. It also provides new insights into solving important issues facing our cities, towns and provinces. These include improving the performance of public expenditures in important areas such as local government, education, health and social policy.

2020 Year End Summary: Urban Density and COVID Death Rates

Wendell Cox — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 18:42:47 -0500

The latest death rates from COVID-19 are displayed by county urban density in Figure 1. Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have low to medium urban population densities characteristic of suburban and exurban areas and account for 85% of the nation’s population (279 million out of a total population of 328 million). All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Counties without urbanization (fully rural counties) also have higher proportional death rates (Figure 3).

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities because of the overcrowding that often occurs in such environments. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater.

Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Urban Density and COVID-19 Death Rates: Update November 2020

Wendell Cox — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 11:29:01 -0500

The latest death rates from COVID-19 are displayed by county urban density in Figure 1. Death rates remain at or below the national average per 1,000 residents in county categories with urban densities of 5,000 per square mile or below (Figures 1 and 2). More than 85% of the nation’s residents live in these areas, which have rural or low to medium density suburban areas. All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of Covid-19 deaths.

Urban density is important. Covid infections and deaths are associated with higher urban densities. This is not because population density is a problem in itself. It is rather that in high urban densities it is more difficulty to avoid higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. These areas are often characterized by worrying overcrowding from insufficiently ventilated enclosed spaces, such as elevators, transit, offices and public buildings (see: The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City by MIT economist Jeffery E. Harris). Social distancing alone is not enough. According to The New York Times: Small, crowded, enclosed spaces are petri dishes for the coronavirus. An additional problem in higher density residential areas is overcrowded apartments, often necessary because lower income households often cannot afford detached houses with yards in which kids can play. There is an important poverty connection.

Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Feudal Future Podcast, with John Russo

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 28 Oct 2020 22:59:30 -0400

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview John Russo, co-author of Steel Town USA and a visiting scholar at Georgetown University. John has spent most of his academic career at Youngstown State University in Ohio, and he has spent much time cataloguing the plight of the middle class and working class in the US.

As the conversation begins, John talks about the political situation in Ohio. While Donald Trump polled well in Ohio in 2016, with the 2020 presidential election right around the corner, John notes that Trump is now in trouble in Ohio. He explains from his observations in Youngstown how this change occurred, specifically citing the development of disillusionment with Trump. John also comments on demographics in Ohio, an article he wrote on Trump’s prospects in the state, Operation Grant, schism within the Republican party, and party polarization.

Next, focus shifts to issues surrounding the election itself. John does not offer a concrete guess as to who will win, but comments that the election is not so much about Trump and Biden as it is about the American people and their future. The election marks a significant generational shift as a new wave of young voters steps up, and John explains how this generation differs from generations that preceded it. He shares about potential conflict in the Democratic party, the idea of a “political parabola,” and realities of fear among voters.

Finally, the conversation turns to thoughts on the future, focusing first on the top three policy initiatives of the prospective Biden administration before turning to the future of capitalism, which John imagines will look more like the system established in China. As the episode moves toward a close, Joel, Marshall, and John talk about issues in the technology sphere, the last chance for the democratic party, labor reform, and more!

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Despite Surges, Rural Death Rates Remain Far Lower

Wendell Cox — Tue, 27 Oct 2020 11:23:50 -0400

There have been reports of rising Covid-19 infection rates in rural areas and even “surges,” such as here and here.

Many of these reports fail to note the most important statistic of all with respect to rural areas --- that, even with the recent increases and surges, rural Covid death rates remain below the national average. There are 703 counties in the United States that are completely rural (based on 2010 Census Bureau data), with no urban population. As of last Friday (October 24), the Covid death rate in these counties was 0.500 per 100,000 population. This is about 30% below the national rate of 0.676 per 100,000 (Figure 1 and 2). This analysis is described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.”

All of the other counties in the nation have areas defined by the Census Bureau as urban, ranging from little under one percent to 100 percent.

Urban density is important. Covid infections and deaths are associated with higher urban densities. This is not because population density is a problem in itself. It is rather that in high urban densities it is more difficulty to avoid higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. These areas are often characterized by worrying overcrowding from insufficiently ventilated enclosed spaces, such as elevators, transit, offices and public buildings. Social distancing alone is not enough. According to The New York Times: Small, crowded, enclosed spaces are petri dishes for the coronavirus. An additional problem in higher density residential areas is overcrowded apartments, often necessary because lower income households often cannot afford detached houses with yards in which kids can play. There is an important poverty connection.

The newest data continues to show that Covid fatality rates are much higher in counties with the highest urban densities. Counties with over 10,000 persons per square mile have from just under four to over six times the rural county death rate. The rural counties account for 28% fewer deaths proportionally than their population.

Counties with urban densities of less than 5,000 persons per square mile have a smaller proportion of Covid deaths than their population share. Above 5,000 persons per square mile, Covid deaths are proportionately higher than population shares (Figure 3).

Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.

At the same time, however, the higher density counties have made substantial progress in controlling COVID infections and deaths. This is very good news. At least in part, this has been made possible by lockdown strategies that have led to huge decreases in transit ridership, high rise downtowns with largely empty offices and limits on elevator occupancy. The real question will be how long it will take for to return to normal, especially in the densest areas, which have been the hardest by lifestyle interruptions (see: Escape from New York).

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

urban density

Detached Houses on Smaller Lots: Key to L.A.'s High Density

PwC to Employees: Work for Us, Live Anywhere

California: Densifying Like No Other

Detached Dwelling Approvals in Australia Break Another Record in April

Urban Density and Covid Death Rates: Update Through April 2021

Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability in Ottawa

2020 Year End Summary: Urban Density and COVID Death Rates

Urban Density and COVID-19 Death Rates: Update November 2020

Feudal Future Podcast, with John Russo

Related:

Despite Surges, Rural Death Rates Remain Far Lower