Los Angeles

Los Angeles Housing Voucher Lottery: 7 Families For Each Waiting List Place

Wendell Cox — Tue, 08 Nov 2022 11:53:46 -0500

Writing in Laist.com, David Wagner reports that the City of Los Angeles opened its Section 8 rental voucher waiting list for the first time in five years. Section 8 is the nation’s largest affordable housing (subsidized low-income housing) program in the nation. The City limits its waiting list to 30,000 families. The applications totaled 223,000, more than seven times the number of waiting list spots. The applicant families include more than 500,000 persons.

A lottery will determine which of the applications receive a place on the waiting list by December 1. It has been reported in 2021 that the average wait time for a family on the City of Los Angeles wait list was 24 months.

Housing costs (both rentals and owned housing) have skyrocketed ahead of incomes across California for decades, as land use regulation has been made more restrictive, principally through state measures (See Chapter 2, Saving California: Solutions to the state’s biggest policy problems).

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Detached Houses on Smaller Lots: Key to L.A.'s High Density

Wendell Cox — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 11:42:05 -0400

Recently, the high density of Los Angeles became an issue in a proposed city of Vancouver high rise development project (six buildings of from 12 to 40 stories). A July 4 Vancouver Sun article, by Susan Lazarak (“Vancouver proposes huge housing development at north end of Granville Bridge”) cited University of British Columbia regional planning professor Michael Hooper to the effect that concentrating tall towers but allowing lower density elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into a high overall density. In particular, he noted that Los Angeles has higher overall density than New York City because L.A. has “vast swaths of middle-density buildings” throughout the city.

Professor Hooper makes a valid and often misunderstood point on tall towers. Indeed, the Corbusian towers, which have been built in many cities, and famously rejected in Paris, are not required to achieve higher densities.

But first, some background…

This article clarifies often misunderstood urban density issues.

First of all, the city (municipality) of Los Angeles is not denser than the city of New York.

However, the Los Angeles urban area is considerably denser than the New York urban area. The urban area is the area of continuous development, and excludes all rural land (by definition, all land that is not urban is rural, according to both Statistics Canada and the US Census Bureau).

For example, the Vancouver urban area (the Statistics Canada term for urban area is “population centre”), stretches from Horseshoe Bay to Langley and Richmond to Maple Ridge and Port Coquitlam (Figure 1, Statistics Canada map of the Vancouver population centre).

Urban areas/population centres are defined by Statistics Canada and the US Census Bureau based on data from small census enumeration zones, without regard to municipal limits or even provincial or state boundaries (such as Ottawa-Gatineau, ON-QC, or Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD).

Moreover, the suburbs of Los Angeles (the part of the urban area outside the city), are about twice as dense as those of New York. This more than compensates for the higher municipal density in New York.

Urban areas are not metropolitan areas (census metropolitan areas). Population centres/urban areas are the highest geographical level at which urban density can be measured, because any higher level is at least partially rural. Metropolitan area densities are combined urban and rural densities.

In the United States, 81% of the land in metropolitan areas with more than 1,000,000 residents was rural in 2010 (see: Rural Character in America’s Metropolitan Areas). The 2021 census indicates that the Vancouver population centre comprises only 32% of the land in the Vancouver census metropolitan area.

Back to Los Angeles and New York…

The United States Census Bureau delineates the land area of urban areas in its census. The current release is based on the 2010 census. The Los Angeles urban area had a population density of 2,702 per square kilometer, more than 30% higher than New York’s 2,054. The Toronto population centre had a density of 3,088 according to the 2021 census, nearly 15% higher than Los Angeles (Figure 2).

The latest data from the American Community Survey (see Note 1) shows that the largest difference in housing types between the Los Angeles and New York urban areas is among single-family detached houses (Figure 3, see Note 2). In Los Angeles, 40% more of the housing stock is detached than in New York (48.4% compared to 34.0%).

The higher density, detached housing suburbs of Los Angeles are contrasted photographically with those of New York, at distances of 24 kilometers/15 miles and 56 kilometers/35 miles from the urban cores (Figures 4 and 5).

Even the San Francisco (2,249) and San Jose (2,267) urban areas have higher urban densities than New York. Like Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose have a larger share of single-family housing and a lower share of multi-family housing than New York — the opposite of what would be expected. As with Los Angeles, the higher densities of the San Francisco and San Jose urban areas compared to New York are driven by their detached housing on smaller lots (Figure 6).

Ironically, Los Angeles has long been considered the epitome of urban sprawl — probably more than any other urban area. If this perception were true, then every large population centre/urban area in Canada and the United States would be denser than Los Angeles. The reality? Only Toronto is denser (Figure 2).

Note 1: The later American Community Survey data for urban areas is based on the land area as defined by the Census Bureau in 2010.

Note 2: The factors contributing to urban density in this article relate only to residential densities. There is no readily available source for the extent of land use by non-residential functions, such as commercial, industrial and public facilities.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

The 'Defund the Police' Fantasy Lives on in LA

Joel Kotkin — Fri, 01 Jul 2022 11:01:11 -0400

Southern California has always had a casual relationship with reality, but West Hollywood’s decision to stop funding the LA Sheriff amidst a mounting crime tsunami takes the fantasy to a new — and dangerous — level. As usual this policy was concocted by woke politicians and not approved by the voters, who might be less than enthusiastic about the notion of replacing police officers with 30 unarmed “security ambassadors”.

We will see if this action gets pushback, particularly in a heavily gay city that has long embraced progressive politics. Yet there are signs that a struggle is emerging even within the Left-of-centre space, as people begin to weigh their ideological fixations against their personal safety.

Right now, remarkably, the defund movement is far from dead. Los Angeles, which has its own crime surge, just elected or placed first several new members who favour the so-called “people’s budget”, which seeks to take funds from cops to give to “community” groups. In Los Angeles, these Left-of-centre candidates have had strong support in media and gained much of their backing from the far-Left Democratic Socialists, in one case displacing a liberal labour-oriented Latino LA councilperson with an ally of Black Lives Matter.

It would be one thing if this insanity was restricted to LA-LA land. Despite the election of pro-police Mayor Eric Adams the New York City council has become, if anything, more amenable to defunding policies. Much of this could be ascribed to low turnouts, the media’s race obsessions, or the continued contraction of middle-class households in big cities across the nation.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and Executive Director for Urban Reform Institute. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Will California Housing Policy Destroy Los Angeles' Secret Forests?

New Geography — Sun, 26 Sep 2021 12:38:24 -0400

Recent California housing policies may result in the decimation of forests in both urban and suburban single-family neighborhoods of Los Angeles. L.A.-based policy analyst and writer Chris LeGras shows us drone footage of LA's "secret" forests that may be affected by the state's recent changes in housing policy.

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Feudal Future Podcast — Madness in the Ruling Class: Who is Leading Our Country?

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 21 Jun 2021 15:38:30 -0400

On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Julius Krein, editor of American Affairs, and Aaron Renn, an opinion-leading urban analyst, consultant, speaker, and writer on a mission to help America’s cities and people thrive and find real success in the 21st century.

Julius Krein is the editor of American Affairs. American Affairs is a quarterly journal of public policy and political thought. It was founded to provide a forum for people who believe that the conventional partisan platforms are no longer relevant to the most pressing challenges facing our country. The obsolescent ideologies and expectations of previous decades are constraining our political discourse. The hyper-partisan posturing of our politics masks an underlying conformity and complacency in our intellectual life. American Affairs, by contrast, seeks to advance a more ambitious discussion of the fundamental issues and divides of our time.

Aaron Renn focuses on urban, economic development, and infrastructure policy in the greater American Midwest. He also regularly contributes to and is cited by national and global media outlets. He is a columnist for Governing magazine and his work has appeared in the The Guardian (UK), The New York Times, and The Washington Post, along with many others. Renn was a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute from 2015-2019 and is a Contributing Editor at its quarterly magazine City Journal. Prior to his work in public policy, Renn had 15 year business career in management and technology consulting, where he was a partner at Accenture. He also founded the urban data analytics software platform Telestrian, which continues to underpin his work on cities.

[ 2:48] Changes in Wall Street and the financial community

[10:01] The effect of elite thinking on the middle class

[30:30] Is generational change next

[42:19] Are we the next Brazil?

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

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Feudal Future Podcast — The Passing of a Party? The Future of the GOP

New Geography — Wed, 17 Feb 2021 13:06:59 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Charles Blain, Brian Calle, and Cullum Clark to discuss the future of the GOP.

Charles Blain is the president of Urban Reform Institute. Urban Reform Institute (URI, formerly Center for Opportunity Urbanism) is a stand-alone think tank, based in Houston.

Brian Calle is the CEO and publisher of LA weekly. Since 1978, LA Weekly has been decoding Los Angeles for its readers, infiltrating its subcultures, observing and analyzing its shifting rhythms, digging up its unreported stories and confronting the city's political leaders.

Dr. J.H. Cullum Clark is the Director of the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative where he is responsible for managing various aspects of the new partnership between the Department of Economics and the Bush Institute and leads the Initiative's work on domestic economic policy and economic growth.

[3:42] Joel compares the GOP to France’s right, saying how the GOP is on its way to becoming a voiceless, minority party.

[6:17] Charles dissects the party, explaining how the party has no unifying voice, member accountability, or adherence to principles.

[26:00] Joel speaks about the GOP's racial insensitivity, lack of positive programming, and opposition of big tech.

[29:48] The episode ends with the hosts and speaker’s optimism on rational bipartisan debates in both the Senate and the House.

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Feudal Future Podcast — A Test of Strength: Pandemics Through the Eye of Religion, with Rev. John L. McCullough

New Geography — Mon, 01 Feb 2021 12:33:48 -0500

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Rev. John L. McCullough, President Emeritus of Church World Service. CWS is a global ecumenical organization specializing in Development and Humanitarian Assistance, Immigration and Refugee Services, Justice and Human Rights. Headquartered in NYC with primary offices in: Bangkok, Belgrade, Buenos Aires, Elkhart (IN), Hanoi, Islamabad, Jakarta, Miami, Nairobi, Phnom Phen, Vientiane, Washington, D.C. CWS is also branded as CROP Hunger Walks, and is a major sponsor of the Ecumenical Advocacy Days. Mission Statement: Church World Service works with partners to eradicate hunger and poverty and to promote peace and justice around the world.

[4:00] Marshall opens up the discussion asking Rev. John what the impact of covid has had on faith-based organizations

[6:45] Joel and Rev. John discuss how developing countries respond to crises without relying on the government

[22:15] Marshall and Rev. John dive into the effect COVID is having on refugees and resettlement across the world

[32:00] Rev. John ends the episode with how religion will reinvent itself through this pandemic

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Feudal Future Podcast — The Clash: the Power Divide Between the Working Class & the Managerial Elite

New Geography — Mon, 18 Jan 2021 13:39:37 -0500

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Michael Lind. Michael Lind is a professor of practice at the LBJ School. A graduate of the Plan II Liberal Arts Honors Program and the Law School at The University of Texas with a master's degree in international relations from Yale, Lind has previously taught at Harvard and Johns Hopkins. He has been assistant to the director of the Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs at the U.S. State Department and has been an editor or staff writer for The New Yorker, Harper's, The New Republic and The National Interest. A co-founder of New America, along with Walter Mead, Sherle Schwenninger and Ted Halstead, Lind co-founded New America's American Strategy program, and served as policy director of its economic growth program. He is a former member of the boards of Fairvote and Economists for Peace and Security. (LBJ Texas)

[6:40] Joel asks if national polarization will get worse in the upcoming weeks and how it will affect social platforms as well as the lives of ordinary people.

[9:00] Michael goes into detail how economic control has changed and shifted from the 20th century to today & how the ideas of demonetization plays out in the real economy.

[13:15] Joel and Michael discuss the power of the managerial elite and the historic function of companies and the organization and education of the elite.

[33:45] Joel asks Michael where he sees this clash ending up in the short term and long term.

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Feudal Future Podcast — The End of Innovation: Exposing California

New Geography — Tue, 22 Dec 2020 13:44:04 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Tracy Hernandez. Tracy Hernandez is the Founding Chief Executive Officer of the Los Angeles County Business Federation (BizFed), a nonprofit, massive grassroots alliance of 180 top business networks that counts among its more than 400,000 business members a diverse demographic, industry sector, and geographic array of small and large employers of over 3.5 million people in Southern California. (BizFed 2020)

[6:00] Marshall shares an innovation graph of the past 5 years for multiple states. California has been at the bottom of innovation growth. Marshall comments that our innovators are leaving our state by storm.

[12:00] Dee Dee Myers and GoBiz. Joel shares his thoughts about Newsom and the implications of appointing the wrong people with power.

[19:00] Prop 19. App Based Drivers in California. Tracy shares how the state could have crippled thousands of contractors with the pass of Prop 19.

[32:00] Restaurant Owners and Shutdowns. Tracy and Joel defend small business owners that are in near bankruptcy due to shutdowns.

The episode ends with a question from Tracy. “What will the tipping point be for California business owners?”

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Zooming Out on LA

Jerry Sullivan — Wed, 09 Dec 2020 13:27:05 -0500

There’s no longer any question that Los Angeles has arrived as a global city—if Hollywood’s reach doesn’t make the case then the Asian money behind its new skyline and preparations for a record-setting third Olympiad should.

The more apt question these days is which Los Angeles excites the world?

The Los Angeles of Rodeo Drive? Or the Huntington Gardens? Or Disneyland?

And there’s the rub—because none of those places is in the City of Los Angeles.

Rodeo Drive and the Huntington Gardens are both in the larger territory known as Los Angeles County. The former is famous as the high street of Beverly Hills, the latter a staid cultural preserve in San Marino.

Those two toney and independent towns are on opposite sides of LA County, which covers 4,000 square miles and includes 88 municipalities altogether.

You have to expand to the larger concept of Southern California to get to Disneyland, which is in Orange County, directly south of LA.

LA gets a lot of credit for its neighbors’ achievements, as well as its own—but the outsized image is a two-edged sword.

The latest report from the World Trade Center of Los Angeles provides some insights, giving data on foreign-owned businesses with operations in Southern California.

You might expect LA County to punch above its weight on foreign investment as the undisputed center of the sun-dappled landscape, with its population of 10 million approaching half of the region’s total. Among the assets likely to appeal to foreign investors at the practical and executive levels are the biggest airport in Southern California, twin seaports that are the busiest in the U.S., three research universities, 76 hospitals, numerous renowned museum and performance venues, nine professional sports teams, and 66 Consulates General.

Yet LA County looks to be just another option for foreign investment on Southern California’s expansive landscape.

There are nearly 12,000 foreign-owned firms in Southern California, and LA County is home to fewer than half of them.

The same goes for the 461,447 jobs at foreign-owned enterprises throughout the region–and for the $18.1 billion in annual wages they generate.

The numbers get worse for LA County when you consider investments coming from key overseas markets, including the UK, a leading trade partner of Southern California.

UK businesses combine to account for 76,000 jobs and $6.1 billion in annual payroll in Southern California, with about two-thirds of each total landing outside of City of Los Angeles or LA County.

A number of other top 10 sources of foreign investment in Southern California also index low for LA.

Los Angeles is a global magnet when viewed from afar.

But consider LA within its regional setting of Southern California and it’s about on par with a lot of other places that are miles away from Hollywood or the ports or a courtside seat to watch LeBron James perform for the world-famous Lakers basketball franchise.

The data on foreign-owned businesses and where they locate in Southern California serve to concentrate the mind on LA’s problem, which range from a federal corruption probe of City Hall to rampant encampments of rough sleepers and a municipal budget devastated by Covid-19 while feckless politicians fiddle.

Meanwhile, some of the best public schools are down in Orange County, there is world-class golf out in the Riverside County burg of Palm Springs, and you’ll find world-class resorts up in Santa Barbara County.

And you can check just about anywhere for better roads.

LA’s image is big.

But it seems foreign investors have learned that hype doesn’t fill potholes.

Jerry Sullivan is founder and chief columnist for SullivanSaysSoCal.com.