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Feudal Future Podcast — Trump's Tariffs and the Future of US-Canada Relations

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 01 Apr 2025 18:44:23 -0400

Trump's threatened tariffs against Canada have sparked more than just economic anxiety—they've triggered a profound identity crisis among our northern neighbors. Joining Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are John Kay (Quillette) and Rob Roberts (National Post), who offer razor-sharp insights into how this diplomatic tension is reshaping Canadian self-perception.

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The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Multiple More Jobs Accessible by Automobile Than by Transit

Frontier Centre for Public Policy — Thu, 11 Apr 2024 15:09:28 -0400

A recent University of Toronto paper by Jeff Allen and Steven Farber examines work access as measured in travel time to get to work. The “30-minute job access” is a rounded-up average in all heavily populated regions in Canada.

Data from the paper and key points are in the PDF. View/download the Charticle (PDF).

Downside of Calgary Downtown Residential Conversions?

Wendell Cox — Mon, 22 May 2023 14:22:16 -0400

The Calgary Herald reports that some office tenants are being forced out of their buildings in the city of Calgary’s program to convert office buildings to residential uses.

We had covered this program recently, noting that “that the City has adopted an aggressive program to reduce downtown’s office footprint. With 14 million square feet vacant, the city has adopted the “Downtown Calgary Incentive Program,” a goal of which is to reduce CBD office space by 6 million square feet by 2021. The purpose of the program is to encourage the removal of vacant office space in the downtown to help address vacancy rates and stabilize property values over the next decade.” The program provides subsidies to building owners undertaking conversions.

The Herald cites the case of one business that signed a sublease for space on April 12, just over a month ago. The company learned shortly thereafter that they would need to relocate before the end of 2023. Four years before their sublease was to expire.

Conversion of office buildings to residential may be the greatest hope for the survival of downtowns where until the pandemic, there were far more jobs than resident workers. The experiences cited in the Herald story could make downtown Calgary even less competitive with other office locations in the metropolitan area, as firms face uncertainty about being able to rely on agreed upon lease expiration dates.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Toronto Transit Service Cuts Criticized in University Report

Wendell Cox — Mon, 27 Mar 2023 11:34:45 -0400

Just implemented service adjustments will reduce Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) services to nine percent below pre-pandemic levels.

A Toronto Metropolitan University report (2023 TTC Service Changes and Transit Equity in Toronto), while acknowledging TTC’s challenging fiscal situation, notes that “Toronto’s most marginalized neighbourhoods will likely be disproportionately affected by the TTC service cuts.” The report continues: “These neighbourhoods may not generate the highest amounts of public transit trips, but residents in these neighbourhoods may be more dependent on public transit for their everyday needs compared to other parts of the city.” This “will likely make these neighbourhoods more mobility poor, creating additional barriers to the residents’ participation in employment, education, and society in general.”

Moreover, the report finds “At a time when all levels of the government are committing to address affordability and inequality, the proposed TTC service cuts are not justified.”

Note: The TTC principally serves the city (municipality) of Toronto, which accounts for 45% of the Toronto census metropolitan area population.

43% of Canada’s Employed Worked Majority of Hours at Home: January 2022

Wendell Cox — Mon, 21 Mar 2022 22:58:48 -0400

Statistics Canada reports that remote work reached a pandemic era recently.

“Since the onset of the pandemic, the Labour Force Survey has been tracking the proportion of non-absent workers who worked from home. During the week of January 9 to 15, more than 4 in 10 (43.0%) of those employed worked most of their hours from home, the highest proportion since the initial lockdown in April 2020. Among those who did not usually work any of their hours at home, 30.3% worked at home for at least part of the week.”

This was included in the Statistics Canada January monthly bulletin on urban transit ridership.

Demographia Housing Affordability in Canada 2021 Supplemental

Wendell Cox — Thu, 23 Dec 2021 16:07:31 -0500

Demographia Housing Affordability in Canada, assesses middle-income housing affordability (Section 1) using the Median Multiple,” which is the market rate median house price divided by the pre-tax median household income (gross income).

Read the full Report here: DEMOGRAPHIA HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CANADA

The Median Multiple is widely used for evaluating housing markets. It has been recommended by the World Bank and the United Nations and has been used by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The Median Multiple and other price-to-income multiples (housing affordability multiples) are used to compare housing affordability between markets by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, The Economist, and other organizations.

Historically, liberally regulated markets have exhibited median house prices that are three times or less that of median household incomes (a Median Multiple of 3.0 or less). Demographia uses the housing affordability ratings in Table 1.

Housing Affordability in Canada: The Context

Among the major markets, housing remained comparatively affordable from 1970 to the mid-2000s, though the Vancouver market had become severely unaffordable. Since then, however, housing affordability has deteriorated materially. Housing was generally affordable in Canada’s as late as the mid-2000s. For example, house prices have increased the equivalent of 7.7 years of median household income in Vancouver from 2004/2005 and 6.0 years in Toronto.

House price increases have been substantial in the other major markets. Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau house prices have increased the equivalent of more than two years of annual median household income. Calgary and Edmonton, prices rose about the equivalent of one year.

This piece first appeared on Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

New Toronto to London (ON) Train Ridership Half that of a Bus

Wendell Cox — Tue, 07 Dec 2021 16:32:33 -0500

The Toronto Star reports that the new Toronto to London, Ontario “GO” Transit commuter train is carrying far fewer passengers than the average transit bus. (see: GO’s new London-Toronto train is moving fewer passengers than a half-full TTC bus). During the week of November 15, ticket sales were only 32 per scheduled train.

The service, according to the Star, is operated with trains with six cars each, with a capacity of 162 passengers. This means is operating at three percent of capacity (that assumes all riders travel the entire distance from London to Union Station in downtown Toronto).

According to The Star, the GO trip takes nearly four hours each way between Toronto and London. VIA Rail, Canada, the national passenger rail system operates services between the two terminals in 2:10.

Metrolinx, which operates the GO train system across the Greater Golden Horseshoe, indicates that ridership remains about 75% less than normal, due to the pandemic. Even if the new London service were to attract four times the ridership (which returning to normal would accomplish over the entire network), less than 15% of the capacity would be utilized. This is a patronage level that could be easily handled by a few buses, which would also permit provision of trips throughout the day.

On the assumption that the public purpose of this service is serving people, the least expensive option should be provided --- that which attracts the highest number of passengers for the least cost. It is inconceivable that this could involve six car trains, and not even one-car trains.

This is not intended to criticize Metrolinx or GO trains, since similar decisions have been made by governments and transit operators virtually around the world, favoring trains, regardless of the cost. There are obviously places where rail transit is justified, but regrettably, not in many of the places it has been built in recent decades. The result has been to provide considerably less transit service and fewer rides than would have been the case if more efficient alternatives were adopted --- and alternatives that are time competitive with the car.

The University of Toronto’s Professor Shoshanna Saxe “hit the nail on the head,” noting “It’s very hard to attract people to transit when it’s slower than driving,” The problem not limited to the London to Toronto service. For example, international research found that within the Toronto CMA, cars provide 4.5 times the 30-minute job access as transit, despite the fact that it is hard to find a better transit system in North America.

Employment access should be the principal driver of transit policy, with emphasis on obtaining the largest increases among lower-income households that have less automobile access. That would lead to less poverty, an improved economy and more jobs.

The issue is not cars, trains or buses, it is outcomes for people. Transit’s potential can only be achieved if available resources are committed to maximizing ridership, especially to work, which is the most important trip.

Note: As a matter of interest, Metrolinx made a pre-pandemic-pandemic map of ridership by train line available (April to September 2020).

Ontario Premier Doug Ford Supports New Highway

Wendell Cox — Thu, 11 Nov 2021 11:56:59 -0500

Ontario’s premier Doug Ford indicated strong support for the new 60 kilometer (more than 35 miles) Highway 413 across the northwest suburbs of metropolitan Toronto. The highway would connect Vaughn, in York region with Milton, connective with Highway 401 west of Toronto International Airport. Highway 401, the MacDonald Cartier Freeway is one of the world’s busiest and widest highway, especially as it traverses within the northern city limits of Toronto, with from 12 to 14 lanes (see map at Toronto CTV News).

According to the Toronto Star, Ford “dismissed critics as downtown Toronto ideologues.” Ford told the Star: ““Just sitting there and telling people, ‘hop on your bicycle or get behind a horse and buggy and start driving,’ it doesn’t cut it.” The premier added “That’s the ideology of a lot of people that are from downtown Toronto making their comments about up here.”

Canada to Tax Home Equity?

Wendell Cox — Mon, 13 Sep 2021 12:33:16 -0400

In Canada, where income adjusted house prices vary more than five times between metropolitan areas, the threat of a federal initiative to tax house equity could be looming. That’s the conclusion columnist Lorne Gunter, writing in The Edmonton Sun, The Winnipeg Sun and other Sun Media outlets. The headline read: “Liberals laying groundwork to tax homeowners’ equity: Officials are softening up the ground for such a tax by insisting it is unfair that today’s homeowners have so much value in their homes while so many others cannot afford homes.

According to Gunter the evidence is in a report by the federal government’s Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, parts of which have been obtained by Blacklock’s Reporter (described as an “Ottawa insider newsletter”, which is the equivalent of a “Washington insider newsletter” in the United States). The report, “Wealth and Generational Equity in Canadian Housing,” according to Gunter, will be released at some point after the September 20 national election.

According to Gunter: “The current draft of the report recommends the Liberals “examine tax and other public finance policy opportunities to level the intergenerational playing field.” The Liberals currently form the federal government, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but are in a tight election race with the opposition Conservatives and New Democrats.

House prices, adjusted for incomes, are far higher in the Vancouver and Toronto metropolitan areas than in much of the rest of the nation. According to the Demographia International Housing Affordability (2021), published by the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, the median multiple (median house price divided by the median household income) is 13.0 in Vancouver, 9.9 in Toronto. By contrast, Demographia reports that median housing prices were 6.1 years less of median household income in Edmonton (median multiple of 3.8). Today, there remain a number of metropolitan areas with median multiples even lower than Edmonton’s.

Just 15 years ago, Toronto housing prices were only 1.6 years of income more costly, with Toronto’s median multiple being 4.4 and Edmonton’s 2.8. This was just after the Ontario government had implemented its greenbelt policy, which like elsewhere around the world, has been associated with huge increases in house prices relative to incomes. The problem with such policies (referred to as urban containment or compact city policies) is that they ban or severely limit development on the urban periphery, where land is affordable. This creates a scarcity of housing drives up house prices throughout the housing market (metropolitan area), while extinguishing opportunity for young households and others of more limited means (including many immigrants).

Vancouver’s similar policy was adopted decades ago, when there was only modest difference between its housing affordability and that of the rest of the nation (see Figure below).

Canada could face a very contentious debate on housing policy.

Quebec to Start 3-Day Work at Home Policy in 2022

Wendell Cox — Thu, 01 Jul 2021 13:24:33 -0400

Evidence keeps mounting that conversion to the “hybrid” or “cloud” employment model is gaining steam. The Quebec government has announced its back to work program for provincial employees. The government administration Minister, Sonia LeBel announced that starting on September 7, up to one half of employees will be allowed to work from the office one or two days per week. After November 15, all employees will be required to work two days per week in the office.

Labour Minister Jean Boulet stressed that even with the hybrid model “If the 2-metre distance can’t be respected, we will have to ensure that there are physical barriers in place and that people wear a mask… Everyone will need to know how to respect these principles. Until Sept. 7, we have ample time to prepare and plan properly.”

The two Ministers also announced that all employees “whose job allows it” will be able to work up to three days at home starting at the beginning of 2022.

Minister LeBel said “The ‘3-2’ formula strikes the right balance. It gives workers the benefits of teleworking while consolidating our workplaces and strengthening the sense of belonging among employees.”

The province employs 60,000.

The complete story is available in the Montreal Gazette (Gradual return' to offices for Quebec government workers starts Sept. 7).