policy

The Future of Cities: View from the Left Coast

New Geography — Tue, 13 Dec 2022 17:04:17 -0500

Save the date! Join us live for a Speaker Panel on Friday January 20,2023 from 11:30AM - 2:30PM PST.

The Western US has long been an innovator in developing the urban form, yet now that form is showing strain and there's a fierce debate about how western cities should grow.

The speaker panel will explore these issues, from homelessness to high housing prices and the impact of regulation.

Download event flyer (PDF opens in new tab or window)

Visit the event listing for more information:
Chapman University

Feudal Future Podcast — Immigration Crossroads

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 19 Sep 2025 11:56:24 -0400

Is there a middle ground between open borders and immigration restriction? This thought-provoking discussion with GOP strategist Mike Madrid and Venezuelan immigrant Dr. Daniel DiMartino explores the complex realities of America's immigration debate beyond the partisan talking points.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, Associate Director of the Center for Demographics and Policy, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Buy Joel’s latest book, ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

The New California Land Use (CEQA) Reforms

Wendell Cox — Tue, 08 Jul 2025 16:19:52 -0400

For more than half a century, the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) has been used to block new residential (and other) projects. There is considerable evidence that CEQA has been a major contributor to California’s housing price crisis. According to The Wall Street Journal, “has been used by opponents to block almost any kind of development project.”

Over most of the last decade, a number of legislative reforms have been enacted to address the severe unaffordability and constrained housing supply in the state. Yet, from 2019 to 2024, building permits have dropped by nearly 10%, according to Census Bureau data.

Last week, Governor Gavin Newsom set passage of CEQA housing reforms as a condition of signing the state’s budget act. The principal reforms exempt some housing projects from CEQA.

To be exempt from CEQA challenges, a housing project must be infill and within a Census Bureau urban area (see Los Angeles Densest Large Urban Area). This means that Greenfield development, often the target of CEQA suits, could not be exempt.

Projects up to 20 acres can be exempted. The buildings must be 85 feet tall or less. This is approximately eight stories. Minimum housing unit densities would need to be from 5 to 15 housing units per acre. In metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles (and other metropolitan areas with more than 2,000,000 residents), the minimum housing densities would be 15 units per acre in cities with more than 25,000 residents. This high residential density means that the reform is likely to result in virtually no single family permits (a type of development despised by the planning orthodoxy but preferred by more households).

Generally, the minimum densities are higher than the already developed areas. As a result, the CEQA reforms are less an affordability program and more a densification program. It is worth noting that California already has the highest urban population densities in the nation, according to the latest Census Bureau data (2020), at 4,789 per square mile. The latest Census Bureau data shows California to have the three densest larger urban areas in the nation (Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose). New York is fourth densest, with its sprawling suburbs weighing down its urban density).

Some analysts expect that the CEQA reforms will produce substantial new housing construction. This mirrors expectations expressed for the previously enacted reforms, which have had little effect. Part of the problem is that analysts portray the California housing debacle as a supply problem. But it is much more an affordability problem.

The problem is the extent to which California land markets have been distorted through strategies like urban growth boundaries and state planning requirements, such as the Sustainable Communities provisions of Senate Bill 375 (2008). These kinds of regulations have been shown to materially escalate land prices throughout the urban area. New York Times journalist Conor Dougherty recently suggested that Greenfield development will be required “to fix the housing crisis.” I would not be surprised if Governor Newsom’s next wave of reform produces little more than those that preceded it.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a Senior Fellow with Unleash Prosperity in Washington and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985), which was a predecessor agency to the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro). Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast — Trump's Tariffs and the Future of US-Canada Relations

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 01 Apr 2025 18:44:23 -0400

Trump's threatened tariffs against Canada have sparked more than just economic anxiety—they've triggered a profound identity crisis among our northern neighbors. Joining Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are John Kay (Quillette) and Rob Roberts (National Post), who offer razor-sharp insights into how this diplomatic tension is reshaping Canadian self-perception.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Feudal Future Podcast — El Futuro es Latino Town Hall

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 14 Mar 2025 20:53:35 -0400

Keeping the Dream Alive for the Next Generation The future of California’s economy depends on Latino communities. This stark reality emerges vividly in our special town hall session recorded at the Cheech Collection for Chicano Art in Riverside, where experts gathered to discuss findings from “El Futuro es Latino,” a groundbreaking research project from Chapman University.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Who Are the Winners and Losers from the U.S. Election?

Joel Kotkin — Wed, 06 Nov 2024 15:25:27 -0500

Donald Trump has now captured the presidency for a second time, while the Republican Party has taken back the Senate and looks on course to win the House of Representatives. Beyond these headlines, though, there may be many more beneficiaries of a Trump victory — and plenty of casualties, too.

Winners

The fossil fuel industry. Under Kamala Harris and a Democratic Congress, the now-thriving lords of oil and gas would have been facing a death sentence. Now, the Senate is sure to block any radical green policies, and perhaps the House as well. Given weakness in the marketplace and Republican hostility, green investors may have to find another line of work or move to Canada.
Red states. Their power will inevitably grow as jobs and people move there, notably to the South. There’s no chance that the high-tax states will gain back their émigrés, while policies encouraging manufacturing are likely to remain confined to the Sun Belt. This is manna from heaven for the growing coterie of young people in skilled trades, who may be the biggest winners of all, even as their professional rivals struggle. This election may also be a relief to communities on the US-Mexico border after Joe Biden’s administration failed to get a handle on immigration. Even Harris ended up calling for a border wall, and Trump now has the votes to make it happen.
Space travel and the military-industrial complex. By embracing tech mogul Elon Musk, the President-elect and his party have shown their openness to a new libertarian iteration of Silicon Valley. As SpaceX and much of the industry relocates largely to Florida and Texas, the Republicans will have many reasons to back more space spending. Similarly, the new wave of defence companies, such as Palantir and Anduril, can expect bigger contracts as the US rearms.
US-Israel relations. The Democrats have made a point of criticising Israel’s government, its leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and its military strategy. There is growing evidence of Iranian espionage influence in prominent DC circles which will stop with Trump. Yet while Israel may be happy with Trump’s return, so too might Russian President Vladimir Putin: cue the rekindling bromance.

Read the rest of this piece at UnHerd.

Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.

Feudal Future Podcast: The Future of Cars — Hybrid and Electric Insights

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Fri, 19 Jul 2024 19:27:55 -0400

Can electric vehicle mandates really deliver the green future we’re promised, or are we speeding towards unintended roadblocks? Join us as we dissect the real implications of EV adoption with our insightful guests, Jamie Farley from Performance Brokerage Services and Mark Mills from the National Center for Energy Analytics. Jamie reveals the surprising disconnect between the fast-paced push for EVs and the actual consumer demand, while Mark digs into the physical and material hurdles that make this transition more challenging than it appears.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

The Next Australian City: the Suburban Evolution

Guy Gibson and Ross Elliott — Fri, 14 Jun 2024 12:01:10 -0400

Australia, much like America, is a nation of suburbs. The overwhelming majority of its people live, work and play in the suburbs of Australian cities. And while Australia is one of the most urbanised nations in the world, with two thirds of them living in their capital cities – and principally Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane at that – it is the suburbs of those cities that remain the preferred place to live.

The evolution of Australian cities and suburbs is a theme explored in this book by Suburban Futures, edited by Guy Gibson and Ross Elliott. It features 30 authors and includes international perspectives by Joel Kotkin, Wendell Cox, Peter Gordon, Alan Berger and June Williamson and Ellen Dunham-Jones. The Canadian experience is told by Antony Lorius and Laura Taylor. Every Australian state and territory is also covered, each by a different author – all experts in their field but all with different perspectives on the history and future of suburban development.

North American readers will find much that is familiar and much that is new in this book. The editors have sought to provide a fresh sense of legitimacy for the suburban story of Australia which – much like in North America – is frequently the subject of disdain and derision. “The suburbs are about boredom, and obviously some people like being bored and plain and predictable, I'm happy for them … even if their suburbs are destroying the world,” was an infamous comment by noted Australian urbanist Elizabeth Farrelly. That’s not a view shared by authors in this work, who nonetheless are unafraid to tackle valid concerns around connectivity, mobility, equity and amenity.

The Next Australian City is for this reason both enlightening about the Australian experience, and challenging in terms of how its cities and suburbs will be shaped by global and local forces into the future.

Available at Amazon.

Feudal Future: Understanding California's Recent Financial Deficit

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Tue, 28 May 2024 11:38:21 -0400

Discover the unexpected fiscal twists and turns as California confronts its financial future, with insights from Steve Malanga of the Manhattan Institute and ex-Orange County Treasurer John Moorlach. As your guides, we, Marshall Toplansky and Joel Kotkin, promise to lead you through a landscape shaped by COVID-19 aftershocks, federal aid windfalls, and the intricate dance of managing state budgets and pension reforms. Prepare to be enlightened by our conversation on the surprising surpluses, the stark reality of tax collection downturns, and the resilience—or vulnerability—of California's fiscal policies.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

Support Our Work

The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘

Feudal Future: Addressing the Housing Affordability Crisis & Protecting the Middle Class Dream

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 01 Apr 2024 11:36:15 -0400

Unlock the mystery behind why securing a roof over your head has become an arduous quest in today’s Western civilization. This episode promises to gift you with the perspectives of housing experts Joel Farkas, Wendell Cox, and Karla López del Río, as we navigate through the complexities of local and state regulations, fees, and the polarizing anti-sprawl policies that contribute to the housing unaffordability crisis. It’s a discussion that extends beyond numbers and policies, touching the lives of middle-class families and reshaping the demographic landscape of entire states.

Listen on Apple Podcast
More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch this Episode

For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.

Tweet thoughts: @joelkotkin, @mtoplansky, #FeudalFuture #BeyondFeudalism

Learn more about Joel’s book ‘The Coming of Neo-Feudalism‘