pandemic

Bulletin: U.S. Household Income Drops in Pandemic

Wendell Cox — Tue, 14 Sep 2021 12:32:35 -0400

The Census Bureau has just announced that median household income in the United States declined by 2.6% in 2020 compared to 2019. This is the first statistically significant reduction in income since 2011. In 2020, the median household income was $67,521, down from $69.560 in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

UK Economy Survives Pandemic: Government Assistance and Remote Work the Reasons

Wendell Cox — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 20:28:58 -0400

In an article entitled “Financial hit from Covid far less drastic than feared,” The Times of London reported on July 8 reported that “Unemployment, debt and earnings have not worsened significantly as a result of the pandemic, Britain’s leading economic think tank has concluded, hailing the findings as “astonishing”.

The report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) expressed “surprise” that unemployment is much lower than was expected, that there has been only a small increase in people in arrears on bills and that the number of people using food banks increased minimally during the pandemic and is now below pre-pandemic levels.

At the same time, IFS noted “while the national picture was remarkable, its figures masked groups who have seen clear increases in hardship, particularly the self-employed and families already experiencing in-work poverty before the pandemic hit.”

The article attributed the positive developments to government interventions to support working people, more than one-third of whom received government support during the pandemic.

We add that, had it not been for the conversion to remote work, these results could not have been achieved. According to the OECD (See Note below), in Mid April of 2020, 49% of the United Kingdom pre-pandemic work force was working remotely, while 20% were working at their physical employment locations, leaving 31% who were not working (Figure). This data suggests that about 70% of the working population was teleworking (Figure). Had remote work not been embraced, the unemployment rate would have been far higher and the economic disruption would likely have been at least as bad as the most dire expectations.

Note: OECD, “Working during COVID-19: Cross-country evidence from real-time survey data.” At oecd-ilibrary.org

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

AEI's Ed Pinto on the Housing Reshufflling and Remote Work

Wendell Cox — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:41:06 -0400

Fortune recently published an interview with Ed Pinto, director of the American Enterprise Institute Housing Center, and former chief credit officer of Fannie Mae.

In the interview, Pinto tells Fortune’s Shawn Tully that the high end prices have increased in price as at least as much as medium to high portion of the market. This is unusual, but not so unusual is the fact that prices of high end housing are increasing faster than the low end of the market, which typically experiences the biggest price increases.

Pinto attributes this to “The work from home economy” that has “unleashed people who before the pandemic were tied to jobs in expensive coastal metros and empowered them to move to cities where they can get a lot more house for the same or in most cases less money.”

Pinto describes the United States as having two housing markets, the coasts and the interior. About a quarter of the population lives in the coastal market, where house prices average seven times income, according to Pinto. In the interior, on the other hand, house prices are 3.5 times incomes. Pinto says: “That opens a high-pressure dynamic that’s pushing people to move to where housing is more plentiful and a lot cheaper.”

He notes that restrictions on new house building have forced people in metros like Los Angeles and Seattle “to pay ever higher prices for a relatively small, aging pool of homes.

He cites migration increases to the usual domestic migration magnets like Austin and Raleigh, but notes big increases in less likely metros such as places like Pittsburgh and Columbus. Moreover, he cites local moves away from urban cores to peripheral locations in California, observing an equally strong trend from “downtown rentals” to “roomy homes” far out of town.

Read the complete article at: fortune.com

Feudal Future Podcast — Madness in the Ruling Class: Who is Leading Our Country?

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 21 Jun 2021 15:38:30 -0400

On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Julius Krein, editor of American Affairs, and Aaron Renn, an opinion-leading urban analyst, consultant, speaker, and writer on a mission to help America’s cities and people thrive and find real success in the 21st century.

Julius Krein is the editor of American Affairs. American Affairs is a quarterly journal of public policy and political thought. It was founded to provide a forum for people who believe that the conventional partisan platforms are no longer relevant to the most pressing challenges facing our country. The obsolescent ideologies and expectations of previous decades are constraining our political discourse. The hyper-partisan posturing of our politics masks an underlying conformity and complacency in our intellectual life. American Affairs, by contrast, seeks to advance a more ambitious discussion of the fundamental issues and divides of our time.

Aaron Renn focuses on urban, economic development, and infrastructure policy in the greater American Midwest. He also regularly contributes to and is cited by national and global media outlets. He is a columnist for Governing magazine and his work has appeared in the The Guardian (UK), The New York Times, and The Washington Post, along with many others. Renn was a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute from 2015-2019 and is a Contributing Editor at its quarterly magazine City Journal. Prior to his work in public policy, Renn had 15 year business career in management and technology consulting, where he was a partner at Accenture. He also founded the urban data analytics software platform Telestrian, which continues to underpin his work on cities.

[ 2:48] Changes in Wall Street and the financial community

[10:01] The effect of elite thinking on the middle class

[30:30] Is generational change next

[42:19] Are we the next Brazil?

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

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Housing Affordability in the Major Russian Metropolitan Areas, 3rd Quarter 2020

Tatiana Polidi — Thu, 08 Apr 2021 13:02:53 -0400

The Institute for Urban Economics presents the research on Housing Affordability in the major Russian metro area (as of the 3rd quarter 2020).

Despite economic distress and incomes drop housing prices displayed a strong positive trend in 16 out of 17 major metro markets in Russia.

Actually in the pandemic crisis housing markets are getting more influenced by the overall financial situation as well as by fundamental economic factors.

The price growth was encouraged among other reasons by the state program on the provision of subsidies for the mortgage interest rates accompanied by decline of savings yields.

Read/download the report here

Feudal Future Podcast — The Passing of a Party? The Future of the GOP

New Geography — Wed, 17 Feb 2021 13:06:59 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Charles Blain, Brian Calle, and Cullum Clark to discuss the future of the GOP.

Charles Blain is the president of Urban Reform Institute. Urban Reform Institute (URI, formerly Center for Opportunity Urbanism) is a stand-alone think tank, based in Houston.

Brian Calle is the CEO and publisher of LA weekly. Since 1978, LA Weekly has been decoding Los Angeles for its readers, infiltrating its subcultures, observing and analyzing its shifting rhythms, digging up its unreported stories and confronting the city's political leaders.

Dr. J.H. Cullum Clark is the Director of the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative where he is responsible for managing various aspects of the new partnership between the Department of Economics and the Bush Institute and leads the Initiative's work on domestic economic policy and economic growth.

[3:42] Joel compares the GOP to France’s right, saying how the GOP is on its way to becoming a voiceless, minority party.

[6:17] Charles dissects the party, explaining how the party has no unifying voice, member accountability, or adherence to principles.

[26:00] Joel speaks about the GOP's racial insensitivity, lack of positive programming, and opposition of big tech.

[29:48] The episode ends with the hosts and speaker’s optimism on rational bipartisan debates in both the Senate and the House.

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Feudal Future Podcast — A Test of Strength: Pandemics Through the Eye of Religion, with Rev. John L. McCullough

New Geography — Mon, 01 Feb 2021 12:33:48 -0500

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Rev. John L. McCullough, President Emeritus of Church World Service. CWS is a global ecumenical organization specializing in Development and Humanitarian Assistance, Immigration and Refugee Services, Justice and Human Rights. Headquartered in NYC with primary offices in: Bangkok, Belgrade, Buenos Aires, Elkhart (IN), Hanoi, Islamabad, Jakarta, Miami, Nairobi, Phnom Phen, Vientiane, Washington, D.C. CWS is also branded as CROP Hunger Walks, and is a major sponsor of the Ecumenical Advocacy Days. Mission Statement: Church World Service works with partners to eradicate hunger and poverty and to promote peace and justice around the world.

[4:00] Marshall opens up the discussion asking Rev. John what the impact of covid has had on faith-based organizations

[6:45] Joel and Rev. John discuss how developing countries respond to crises without relying on the government

[22:15] Marshall and Rev. John dive into the effect COVID is having on refugees and resettlement across the world

[32:00] Rev. John ends the episode with how religion will reinvent itself through this pandemic

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Feudal Future Podcast — The Clash: the Power Divide Between the Working Class & the Managerial Elite

New Geography — Mon, 18 Jan 2021 13:39:37 -0500

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Michael Lind. Michael Lind is a professor of practice at the LBJ School. A graduate of the Plan II Liberal Arts Honors Program and the Law School at The University of Texas with a master's degree in international relations from Yale, Lind has previously taught at Harvard and Johns Hopkins. He has been assistant to the director of the Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs at the U.S. State Department and has been an editor or staff writer for The New Yorker, Harper's, The New Republic and The National Interest. A co-founder of New America, along with Walter Mead, Sherle Schwenninger and Ted Halstead, Lind co-founded New America's American Strategy program, and served as policy director of its economic growth program. He is a former member of the boards of Fairvote and Economists for Peace and Security. (LBJ Texas)

[6:40] Joel asks if national polarization will get worse in the upcoming weeks and how it will affect social platforms as well as the lives of ordinary people.

[9:00] Michael goes into detail how economic control has changed and shifted from the 20th century to today & how the ideas of demonetization plays out in the real economy.

[13:15] Joel and Michael discuss the power of the managerial elite and the historic function of companies and the organization and education of the elite.

[33:45] Joel asks Michael where he sees this clash ending up in the short term and long term.

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Feudal Future Podcast — The End of Innovation: Exposing California

New Geography — Tue, 22 Dec 2020 13:44:04 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Tracy Hernandez. Tracy Hernandez is the Founding Chief Executive Officer of the Los Angeles County Business Federation (BizFed), a nonprofit, massive grassroots alliance of 180 top business networks that counts among its more than 400,000 business members a diverse demographic, industry sector, and geographic array of small and large employers of over 3.5 million people in Southern California. (BizFed 2020)

[6:00] Marshall shares an innovation graph of the past 5 years for multiple states. California has been at the bottom of innovation growth. Marshall comments that our innovators are leaving our state by storm.

[12:00] Dee Dee Myers and GoBiz. Joel shares his thoughts about Newsom and the implications of appointing the wrong people with power.

[19:00] Prop 19. App Based Drivers in California. Tracy shares how the state could have crippled thousands of contractors with the pass of Prop 19.

[32:00] Restaurant Owners and Shutdowns. Tracy and Joel defend small business owners that are in near bankruptcy due to shutdowns.

The episode ends with a question from Tracy. “What will the tipping point be for California business owners?”

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Feudal Future Podcast — Chicago & Positioning: Becoming the Next Middle Class Hub

New Geography — Mon, 07 Dec 2020 12:21:37 -0500

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Pete Saunders. Pete Saunders is a writer and researcher whose work focuses on urbanism and public policy. He has been the editor and publisher of the Corner Side Yard, an urbanist blog, since 2012. A practicing urban planner, he serves as the community and economic development director for the Chicago suburb of Richton Park, Ill., and is the principal for PDS Consulting, an urban-planning consulting and research firm.

Marshall begins the show asking Pete what he thinks Chicago can expect being under a new Biden administration. Pete began to explain that not everything seems cut and clear and to be wary buying into a new administration so quickly. Pete went into details and programs that Biden could implement in order to unite Chicago and establish them once again as a metropolitan powerhouse.

Joel chimed in and was curious to see if the new administration would be able to help the crime rates in Chicago. Pete stated that the crime is not something an administration can change, but that it is more of a societal change that needs to happen.

Marshall added that not only crime was something to be concerned about, but also the amount of talent Chicago raises in its own states, and exports out to other parts of the US and how that was taking away from Chicago. Joel added that if Chicago wants to make changes, they need to be more welcoming to new business and create an environment that is welcoming to the business owners. Pete agreed without hesitation.

As the episode ends, Joel and Pete look hopeful in seeing Chicago make steps to revive the Midwest and give power again to the middle class.

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