A red anti-Israel activist as next mayor of New York? In the cradle of capitalism and the largest diaspora city in the world? It may still be unlikely but the meteoric rise of New York assemblyman, 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, tells us much about the potential of the redistributionist Left not only in America but across the West.
Many pundits, both Right and Left, express dismay about the surge of Right-wing populists, not only in America but across much of Europe and, now, under Nigel Farage, in the UK as well. Yet rather than a powerful, inexorable shift to the Right, we could just as likely be at the beginning of a new surging red tide.
To be sure, as long as the Left clings to issues like transgender sports, slavery reparations, racial quotas and the defunding of police support, the Right seems likely to prevail. But in a host of key economic and demographic areas, we could see a shift not to the mild Clinton or Blair centre-Left, but to something far more radical, and openly anti-capitalist.
The reason for this shift lies in economics. Even as neo-liberalism has delivered brilliantly for the elite classes, and the highly educated middle classes, it has never worked well for the aspirations of most middle and working class Westerners. Across the 36 wealthier countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the middle class “looks increasingly like a boat in rocky waters”, according to a report by that organisation.
Critically, home ownership, the ultimate symbol of middle class respectability, is fading out of sight for many. In the United States, the chance of middle-class earners moving up to the top rungs of the earnings ladder has dropped by approximately 20 per cent since the early 1980s, while life expectancy in the US has been declining.
So even as the vast majority of Americans reject the Left’s cultural agenda, they also, by roughly four-to-one, favour higher taxes on the rich and government-imposed reductions on drug prices. Indeed a strong majority of people in 28 countries, according to an Edelman survey, believe capitalism does more harm than good. More than four in five worry about job losses, most particularly from automation. Inequality and general fear of downward mobility naturally lead to a rise in support for expanded government and greater re-distribution of wealth.
Current economic changes, notably artificial intelligence, seem likely to boost the ranks of the downwardly mobile educated classes. In the US, some 40 per cent of recent graduates are underemployed, working in jobs where their college credentials are essentially worthless. In the UK, roughly a third of young people doubt that they will reach their career goals. In the US, close to half of adults under 30 still live with their parents.
Low unemployment numbers hide the growing percentage of young working class people who now remain outside the labour pool entirely. In Europe, up to a fifth of the population under 30 is neither in school or a job, most resoundingly in Italy, the EU’s third largest economy. In the UK, one out of seven aged under 25 is on the economic sidelines, the highest level in a decade.
This younger, economically marginalised new proletariat – sometimes called the precariat – constitutes the base of Mamdani’s drive. His positions resonate here, notably frozen apartment rents, free buses and childcare – all paid by a rise in taxes on the wealthy.
New York may be the most alluring city in America for the wealthy with elite degrees, but it faces very high levels of inequality. Job growth has been weak and concentrated in low wage sectors like hospitality and tourism. And as incomes for most stagnate, housing costs have not done the same, rising to record levels this year.
But rising proletarianisation is not just a New York phenomenon. Radical redistributionism describes the policies of one potential future Democratic presidential candidate, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). AOC, a House representative, is also the person cited as the true face of the Democratic Party in some polling. Ocasio-Cortez, also considering a run to dethrone Charles Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, recently endorsed Mamdani, with whom she shares not only a political base but radical economic, anti-Israel and extreme green views.
The other beacon for the new Left lies in California. Home to the most billionaires as well as the highest levels of poverty in the nation, the Golden State has become a field of dreams for socialist groups like the Democratic Socialists of America. This openly Marxist group now has several seats on the LA City Council and seems on the verge of becoming a dominant force in California’s largest city. Due to its more proletarian population, LA has replaced more prosperous and professional San Francisco as the centre of California economic radicalism.
Similar phenomena can be seen in Europe, where an alliance of Leftist activists and Muslims made Trotskyite Jean-Luc Melenchon a favourite among younger voters. German working class voters have embraced the hard-right AfD, with almost 40 per cent, but also Die Linke, which is thought to have won a quarter of the youth votes in the latest elections, more than the Social Democrats and Greens combined. Others embraced the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which mixes socialism with a strong anti-immigrant twist.
In the end, New York will likely not elect Mamdani, in large part due to fear of crime, economic dislocation, as well as the opposition of the city’s still large Jewish population, roughly one in seven Gothamites. But Mamdani is only in his early 30s, and his rise suggests the potency of a coalition of young people, immigrants, and lower wage workers favourable to the radical redistribution of wealth and stomping out capitalism.
Unless proponents of capitalism awaken to these dangers, and address these concerns, the Left may yet rise again to the shock and consternation of those who so blithely celebrate its current demise.
This piece first appeared at: Telegraph.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
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