Philadelphia’s transit agency, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) has paused the King of Prussia rail line that is proposed as a link to the Norristown High Speed Line and centre city. King of Prussia is located in suburban Montgomery County, PA and is hope to the King of Prussia Mall, one of the five largest in the United States.
According to a SEPTA press release dated March 17, “… SEPTA must prioritize essential
infrastructure work and safety and security improvements to maximize the reliability and effectiveness of our aging system.” The press release further noted that “From August 2020 to August 2022, the project estimate increased from $2.08 billion to $2.6 billion. The estimate now stands at $3.02 billion.”
All activities on the King of Prussia project are being halted, and a pending contract for final design has not been executed by SEPTA.
“The Authority will provide details on how funds allocated for KOP Rail will be used
when the proposed capital budget and long-term program is released in April.”
Like other transit agencies around the world, ridership has been severely reduced by the effect of the pandemic, pandemic lockdowns and the increase in remote and hybrid work. In 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, the transit’s work trip market share in the Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD metropolitan area fell by half, from
9.4% to 4.7% in 2021, according to American Community Survey data. At the same
time, the work from home share quadrupled, from 6.0% to 23.6%.
On this episode of The Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by political demographer, Ruy Teixeira, and author and principal, Soledad Ursua to discuss the future of Latinos in politics.
Latest Research: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the new report on restoring The California Dream.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
In “California’s High-Speed Rail Was A Fantasy From Its Inception,” economist Lee Ohanion says that: “California’s HSR is perhaps the greatest infrastructure failure in the history of the country. And the reason it failed is because of a gross failure of state governance, one on such a grand scale that it is nothing short of a betrayal of Californians.”
Ohanion notes that the cost of the present Bakersfield to Merced line, for which the California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) does not even have the money, is already more costly that the original projections for the 800-mile system, which was to connect San Diego, Los Angeles, the Bay Area and Sacramento. This 170-mile stub is on the flat land in the middle of the San Joaquin Valley, by far the easiest portion of the system to build. CHSRA hasn’t turned the first shovel on the Pacheco Pass tunnel, the Tehachapi or the San Gabriel Mountains tunnel that would be required just to complete the San Francisco to Los Angeles segment. The San Diego and Sacramento extensions have barely been mentioned for years.
Ohanion concludes:
“There is no path to completion for the fantasy rail system that was falsely sold to voters 15 years ago. Finishing the Bakersfield-Merced route, which will cost in excess of $35 billion, and which won’t be operative for ten years, doesn’t come close to penciling out. The only reasonable decision is to end a project that should never have begun.”
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the second largest in US history, is raising concerns about a “contagion” that could trigger a financial panic. As the 18th largest bank in the US, SVB’s bankruptcy may not prove an event on the scale of Lehman Brothers, but it may reflect something perhaps even more important: the decline of the Valley’s once vibrant entrepreneurial culture.
As a young reporter, I covered bank founder Roger Smith in 1983 when he came up with the idea of providing conventional financing to young, often venture-backed growth companies. In those days the big Wall Street financiers were largely clueless about technology, and the industry needed someone who understood their needs and ambitions. The now-retired Smith became a real player in the tech world, as well as in the Valley’s philanthropic scene.
Statistics Korea has announced that the nation had a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 0.78, which is a new record low for the nation and may be the lowest ever recorded by any nation, according to a report in The Guardian. According to the newspaper: “Last year, A South Korean woman can now expect to have an average of 0.78 children in her lifetime – the lowest level since records were first kept in 1970 – making South Korea the only country in the world with a fertility rate below one.”
The national TFR was down from 0.83 in 2020. At that time, the capital city of Seoul, with the highest population density in the nation, had a TFR of 0.64, while suburban Gyeonggi had a TFE of 0.88. The highest TFRs were in more rural provinces. See: Korea: Moving to the Suburbs of Seoul.
“Suburban sprawl means many Americans have longer, more tedious commutes plagued by worsening traffic jams—another reason to stay home. While a number of European cities also have long average commutes, New York and Chicago are unmatched, according to mobility-services company Moovit Inc. Public-transit systems in Europe and Asia are often more reliable and less prone to delays, making it easier to get to work.”
I submitted a comment to The Wall Street Journal disputing this paragraph, which was about the 505th on the list.
“On the contrary, US commuting times are generally lower than elsewhere in the world, unlike indicated in this article. See for example: https://www.newgeography.com/content/002217-the-transportation-politics-envy-the-united-states-europe. The article only cites transit commuting times, when in most major urban areas a sizeable share of commuting is by car, which is generally faster than transit. The keys to the shorter commute times in the US are greater use of cars and dispersed employment. Lower densities (pejoratively referred to as sprawl) do not increase commute times, they reduce them (https://fcpp.org/files/1/PS135_Transit_MY15F3.pdf, table 8).
Just a year ago California Governor Gavin Newsom could, and did, brag about the state’s estimated $100 billion surplus. Flush with cash, the preening presidential hopeful was able to hand out thousands of dollars of goodies to households while financing an elaborate multi-billion dollar climate change agenda.
Now the state faces a budget deficit of at least $25 billion, which could grow to $35 to $50 billion if there’s a deep recession. Part of the problem lies with the end of federal Covid spending, but more to blame is the utter dependence of the state on tech billionaire taxpayers and high property prices. These are the top 1% of earners, who pay roughly half of the state’s income taxes.
On this episode of The Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky discuss OpenAI & Chat GPT with mathematician and academic, Daniele Struppa.
Latest Research: From Chapman’s Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the new report on restoring The California Dream.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
The Western US has long been an innovator in developing the urban form, notably in the creation of suburbanized, multipolar cities. Yet now that model is showing strain, and there’s a fierce debate about how western cities should grow. The panel will explore these issues, from homelessness to high housing prices and the impact of regulation.
With an all star lineup including:
Charles Blain- Urban Reform Institute
Karla López del Río- Community Development Professional
Ryan Streeter- State Farm James Q. Wilson Scholar
Natalie Gochnour- Associate Dean in the David Eccles School of Business
Joel Kotkin- Presidential Fellow in Urban Future, Feudal Future Podcast Host
Watch the video:
This event was moderated by Henrik Cronqvist and panelists discussed how the Western US, a long-time innovator in developing the urban form, is now experiencing issues from homelessness to high housing prices and the impact of regulation.
The California Dream:
From Chapman's Center of Demographics & Policy, Joel Kotkin & Marshall Toplansky co-author the brand new report on restoring The California Dream.
Support Our Work
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Teleworking tripled from pre-pandemic 2019 to 2021 to 17.9 percent. The 2019 figure had been the highest ever recorded (5.7 percent). At the same time, transit use fell by approximately one-half, to 2.5 percent, the lowest ever recorded.
There was also a record decline in auto use, principally because commuters were telecommuting in much larger numbers.
Photo: Las Vegas Urban Area, with 71% of Nevada’s population, it is the 5th densest major urban area in the United States as of 2020 (following San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Jose, New York and Honolulu. Credit: Stan Shebs, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada via Wikimedia under CC 3.0 License.
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Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
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