Hong Kong-Macau Bridge Usage Projections Dropped One-Quarter

Hong Kong's Transport and Housing Bureau expressed concern that the soon to open Hong Kong to Macao Bridge will fall far short of its usage projections, according to the South China Morning Post (see: "Estimates for traffic on Hong Kong mega bridge cut by up to 26 per cent because of competition, government admits"). The bridge is expected to reduce automobile travel times from four hours to 45 minutes between the two terminals, one of which (Macau) is adjacent to the large city of Zhuhai. The article did not indicate the financial impact on the project.

Officials blamed the competitive impact of a Shenzhen to Zhongshan bridge, planned to open in 2024, which will be upriver from the Hong Kong to Macau span, require only 20 minutes to cross, and will be more centrally located in the Pearl River Delta mega-agglomeration. The transport infrastructure development industry has been plagued by optimistic projections, with project sponsors often citing unforseen developments as the cause. This has been documented in research by Oxford University Professor Bengt Flyvbjerg and others.