NewGeography.com blogs

California: Densifying Like No Other

We have previously shown that California is the least sprawling state, with an urban population density of 4,304 per square mile of land in 2010 (the last year for which such data is available --- new data will be reported in the 2020 census). This is slightly higher than New York, at 4,181, with its large lot New York City suburbs and low density urbanization upstate. This more than dilutes the effect of the nation’s densest large municipality (New York), which has more than 27,000 per square mile.

California’s urban densification between 2000 and 2010 was simply above and beyond that of any other state. The density of new urban development was 11,100 per square mile. (See: State Urban Density: 2000-2010 and below). This is nearly as dense as the city of Chicago, yet is spread all over the state, from Siskiyou County to Imperial --- and thus includes a lot of areas that can hardly be considered dense urban.

California’s density of new urban development was more than double that of number two --- Oregon, with its tough urban planning law. It is more than five times that of urbanization in the nation.

California has some of the most restrictive land use policies in the nation and there has been much analysis of the relationship between these and rising house prices. With California’s growth rate having dropped by 40% in the 2010s from the 2000s, and now losing population, these contrasts could be shown to be even greater when new data is released.

View or download PDF of statistics


Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast — Power & Responsibility: Tech's Control from the Eyes of a VC

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Andrew Romans, Venture Capitalist, 3x author, advisor to Corporate Venture Capital Groups & Host of podcast - Fireside with a VC.

Andrew Romans is the founder of 7BC Venture Capital and Rubicon Venture Capital. Andrew lives by the motto - only invest if you can add value – otherwise, you do not deserve to be in the deal. He has financially outperformed more than 75% of all VCs in Silicon Valley. Before becoming a VC he was a VC-backed entrepreneur and 3x author, former techVC and M&A investment banker, founder of The Founders Club & cofounder of Georgetown Angels. He is the author of Masters of Corporate Venture Capital, Masters of Blockchain & The Entrepreneurial Bible to Venture Capital, which have been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Italian and Russian by major publishers. Romans raised over $48m for tech startups he founded by the age of 28. He is fluent in English, French & German. MBA Georgetown University, which he completed on scholarship.

[ 2:33] Concentration of power in global tech

[ 6:45] Historians perspective of the power of tech giants

[16:30] The impact on the middle class and becoming labor slaves

[29:08] Effect of regulations on tech giants and a glimpse into the feudal future

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

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More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Learn more about Andrew Romans and his company here : https://7bc.vc/

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Detached Dwelling Approvals in Australia Break Another Record in April

Newgeography.com Context Note: We are pleased to present the following press release from the Housing Industry Association, Australia’s association of home builders. For some years, planners and governments have pursued densification policies that encourage households to choose multi-family rather than detached housing. Historically, detached housing has been dominant in Australia, but in the middle 2010s, multi-family housing was a majority of new construction in some months. With the pandemic, remote working and the increased demand for space — both in houses — and in gardens, detached housing construction rose strongly and again dominates housing construction.

To read the full press release, click here.

Feudal Future Podcast — The War on Space: the Battle No Country Wants to Lose

On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by geopolitical analyst, Brandon J. Weichert author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, to discuss a real-life version of Star Wars.

Brandon J. Weichert is a geopolitical analyst who manages The Weichert Report: World News Done Right. He is also a contributor to The American Spectator and contributing editor at American Greatness. Recently, Brandon has become a contributor to Real Clear Public Affairs and his national security writings have appeared at Real Clear Politics, Real Clear World, Real Clear Defense, and Real Clear Policy. He also travels the country briefing elements of the Department of Defense and various private groups on national security and emerging technology issues. A recovering Congressional staffer, Brandon holds an M.A. in Statecraft and National Security Affairs from the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. and is an Associate Member of New College at Oxford University. Brandon lives by Herman Kahn’s mantra that, “I’m against fashionable thinking.” Therefore, his entire life’s work has been predicated on challenging conventional wisdom and assumptions on a variety of matters, notably in national security. He lives with his wife and daughters in Southwest Florida and can be reached via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

[2:33] Space Pearl Harbor

[15:01] Elon Musk & China

[23:30] Policies on Space

[28:30] Educated Elites and Space

Watch the podcast video:

Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

Feudal Future Podcast: America Under Biden's New Tax Plan

On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Hank Adler, Associate Professor of Accounting for Chapman University, and Steven Malanga, City Journal’s senior editor, to discuss Biden's new tax plan.

Hank Adler was in public accounting for thirty-four years, the last twenty as a tax partner at Deloitte & Touche. He joined the faculty of Chapman University in 2003. Mr. Adler has served on several corporate and community boards of directors. His research has been published by The Wall Street Journal, Tax Notes, Prentice Hall and Tax Magazine. His interests include theories of taxation and board governance.

Steven Malanga is the George M. Yeager Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and City Journal’s senior editor. He writes about the intersection of urban economies, business communities, and public policy. Malanga is the author of The New New Left: How American Politics Works Today (2005); The Immigration Solution: A Better Plan than Today’s (2007), coauthored with Heather Mac Donald and Victor Davis Hanson; and Shakedown: The Continuing Conspiracy Against the American Taxpayer (2010).

[ 3:17] High Taxes and California

[ 6:45] The concentration of wealth in California

[16:30] Biden's porposal on capital gains

[29:08] Entrepreneurial growth in America

Listen on Apple Podcast

Listen on Stitcher

Listen on Spotify

More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch Episode Video:

Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Learn about Hank Adler.

Learn about Steven Malanga.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

Urban Density and Covid Death Rates: Update Through April 2021

The latest death rates as of April 30, 2021 from COVID-19 are displayed by US county urban density in Figure 1. This analysis is based on data reported by usafacts.org.

Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have the low to medium urban population densities characteristic suburban areas and account for 81% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million).

All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.

Despite considerable press coverage of fatality rates in rural areas, the fully rural counties (without urban areas), death rate remains 14% above the national average, virtually the same as at the end of 2020.

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities with their widespread overcrowding, especially in insufficiently ventilated, overcrowded enclosures, such as in offices, elevators, transit, retail establishments and housing. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. Economic activity in the nation’s largest and densest urban cores (central business districts) is a small fraction of normal, as a result of strict lockdowns.


Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability in Ottawa

The city of Ottawa is updating its Official Plan. Under consideration are expanding the urban boundary (urban growth boundary) and strengthening of its intensification (densification)policy. These strategies are components of urban containment policy. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability from an international perspective. For the purposes of this report, urban containment policy includes growth management, compact city policy, intensification and any measures that can materially impact the cost of land or housing by rationing or prohibiting greenfield land development (such as urban growth boundaries and intensification mandates).

The Frontier Centre for Public Policy has just released Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability by Wendell Cox, a senior fellow with the Frontier Centre. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability.

In the past two decades there has been growing concern about the deterioration in housing affordability across Canada. From 2000 to 2015, average house prices had risen three times that of before-tax average household incomes. This issue is not isolated to Canada; there has been a significant decline in housing affordability in several countries including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Urban containment policy has been strongly associated with higher house prices relative to incomes. This report also highlights the indirect consequences associated with urban containment, such as higher poverty rates and stunted economic growth.

To read this insightful paper, visit the Frontier Centre for Public Policy website: www.fcpp.org or Click Here.

This piece first appeared on Frontier Centre for Public Policy.


The Frontier Centre for Public Policy is an independent, non-profit organization that undertakes research and education in support of economic growth and social outcomes that will enhance the quality of life in our communities. Through a variety of publications and public forums, the Centre explores policy innovations required to make the prairies region a winner in the open economy. It also provides new insights into solving important issues facing our cities, towns and provinces. These include improving the performance of public expenditures in important areas such as local government, education, health and social policy.

2020 Census: Predictable California, Surprising New York and New Jersey

The US Census Bureau announced national, state and District of Columbia 2020 Census population totals yesterday. The big story in the media was the changes in Congressional apportionment, which are detailed later in this article.

Note: This article summarizes the first results of the 2020 census (national, states and DC). A table at the end of the article provides 2020 census figures, change from 2010, percentage change and comparison to expected, along with rankings in each category.

The big stories, from a demographic rather than a political perspective were (in my judgment) in California, New York and New Jersey, Texas and Florida, as well as the Mountain West.

California, Texas and Florida

First, as predicted, the California malaise continued. For the second Census in a row, California placed second after Texas in total population gain. Texas gained 4.0 million residents, while California gained 2.3 million. The Texas lead of 1.7 million nearly doubled compared to its 900,000 lead between 2000 to 2010. But there’s more. Florida also led California over the last census period by 450,000. California had added the largest number of residents in every census from 1930 through 2010.

New York and New Jersey

But the big surprise is New York, in which the Census Bureau was estimating an increase of about 75,000 residents between 2010 and 2019. The newly reported census figure for New York was up 823,000 from 2010, This more than doubles New York’s 2000-2010 gain.

There’s good reason to believe that the unexpected New York increase will be contained in the New York metropolitan area. New Jersey, much of which is included in the New York metropolitan area, also had a 2020 census reported population much higher than expected. Through 2019, the Census Bureau estimated that New Jersey’s population had risen just over 100,000 from 2010. The new 2020 estimate of 9.82 million is nearly 500,000 greater than in 2010.

It will be interesting to see the distribution of the higher population when figures are available

Utah, Idaho and the Top Five Proportionate Gainers

Meanwhile, the stars in proportionate population growth were in the Mountain West. Utah led with an 18.2% increase. Idaho was second at 17.3%. Despite its huge population, Texas slipped into the number 3 position, at 15.9%. North Dakota, in the Great Plains, added 15.0%, with its more than 100,000 increase being more the state gained from 1920 to 2010. Mountain West Nevada placed 5th with a 15.0% increase.

States Losing Population

The largest loss, at 3.2% was in West Virginia. Mississippi (minus 0.2%) and Illinois (minus 0.1%) also lost population

Changes in Apportionment

Based on the new census counts six states will gain seats in Congress. Texas will gain two seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one. Seven states will lose one seat apiece, including California, for the first time since becoming a state in 1850. Illinois, Michigan, New York (despite the unexpected gain), Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will also lose seats.

View/download the Table of 2020 Census First Results (PDF)


Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast — Education Exposed: Learning in a Post-COVID World

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Dr. Roxanne Greitz Miller, Vice Provost for Graduate Education and the Interim Dean of the Attallah College of Educational Studies.

A member of Chapman's faculty since 2005, Dr. Miller holds the rank of tenured full professor with a joint appointment to Schmid College of Science and Technology. In addition to her teaching at the undergraduate, masters, and doctoral levels, Dr. Miller has served as principal or co-principal investigator on state and federal research grants representing more than $3.5 million in funding and has published numerous refereed articles, book chapters, and comprehensive historical abstracts. Her research centers on teacher professional development, the home-to-school connection, and STEM education. She serves as the immediate past chair of the Small Colleges Special Interest Group of the Professional and Organizational Developers (POD) Network and served as both the Division K Teacher Education Program Co-Chair for the American Educational Research Association (AERA) from 2013-2016 and the contributing editor to NSTA’s Science Scope journal from 2005-2009.

[2:40] Challenges facing the education system post-COVID

[5:34] The Effects of Learning Loss

[13:45] Are we raising consumers of content?

[23:58] Demographic shifts and access to information in the college system

[31:00] Future of the university systems

This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Listen on Apple Podcast

Listen on Stitcher

Listen on Spotify

More podcast episodes & show notes at JoelKotkin.com

Watch Episode on Youtube

Related:

Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.

Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.

Learn more about Dr. Roxanne Greitz Miller.

Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.

Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Learn about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

More Londoners Turning to Cars

In an article by Edward Thicknesse, City A.M. reports that car use is rising in London, home of one of the high-income world’s best urban transit systems. Excerpts follow:

“New figures from Close Brothers Motor Finance, shared exclusively with City A.M., show that over a fifth of Londoners – 21 per cent – are now more likely to buy a car sooner than they had previously planned.”

“Seán Kemple, managing director of Close Brothers Motor Finance, told City A.M. that Londoners were now turning their back on Tube and bus travel.”

“With people urged to avoid public transport as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the UK has seen a resurgence in private car use over the last 12 months.”

Read the entire article at: Exclusive: Covid-19 drives Londoners behind the wheel sooner than planned.