This legislative session has culminated in a landmark victory for property rights and housing affordability in Texas. Thanks to the tireless work of advocacy groups like Texans for Reasonable Solutions, which championed this entire suite of bills, Governor Abbott has now signed four powerful pieces of legislation that represent the most significant pro-housing reform the state has seen in decades. This isn't a single, timid step; it's a coordinated, multi-front assault on the regulatory red tape that has driven up housing costs and limited options for Texas families.
For years, we've watched major Texas metros grapple with an affordability crisis born not of scarcity of land or lack of demand, but of an ever-growing thicket of municipal ordinances. These four new laws—HB 24, SB 840, SB 2477, and the capstone bill, SB 15—take direct aim at the root of the problem: artificial constraints on supply. Let's break down each of these strategic wins.
1. HB 24: Ending the "Tyrant's Veto"
One of the most pernicious, anti-growth mechanisms in Texas zoning has been the "protest-by-a-small-minority" rule, rightly dubbed the "tyrant's veto." Under the old law, if owners of just 20% of the land area near a proposed zoning change objected, it triggered a supermajority vote (three-fourths) of the city council for approval. This gave a handful of NIMBY ("Not In My Back Yard") neighbors disproportionate power to block new housing projects that a simple majority of elected officials, and likely the community at large, supported.
Championed by Rep. Dustin Burrows and Sen. Bryan Hughes, HB 24 fundamentally restores fairness to the process. The bill targets the most common use of the veto by raising the protest threshold for adjacent property owners to 60% and, crucially, removes the supermajority requirement for those protests.
The result: A small group of opponents can no longer single-handedly kill beneficial projects. This strengthens property rights for landowners who wish to develop housing and empowers city councils to make decisions for the good of the entire city, not just a vocal few.
Tory Gattis is the Founder at BeSomeone - Talent Unbound PBC, and former CEO & Founder at Microschool Revolution. Tory is a McKinsey consulting alum, TEDx speaker, and holds both an MBA and BSEE from Rice University. In his spare time, he writes his long-running Houston Strategies and Opportunity Urbanist blogs for the Houston Chronicle, and writes and speaks as a Founding Senior Fellow with the Urban Reform Institute.
One might not easily associate Donald Trump with Otto von Bismarck. Yet like the Iron Chancellor, who was famous for embracing the realpolitik of “blood and steel” in forging the German Empire, Trump has found his own formula — based largely on America’s tech savvy and energy abundance — to intimidate enemies and control friends.
The US President last night announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire after a 12-day war, though Israel has this morning accused Tehran of immediately violating the order. As the conflict threatens to restart already, energy policy could prove a critical determining factor.
Suggestions from the Iranian government that it would close the pivotal Strait of Hormuz clearly haven’t deterred Washington. Threats to shut down oil production would previously have terrified an America which just two decades ago was the world’s largest importer of oil. Now, the picture is very different. Largely thanks to fracking, America is the number-one producer of oil and gas globally, most of it produced in Trump-friendly states such as Texas. The Permian basin, located in the arid wastes of the western reaches of the Lone Star State, now constitutes the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, and is soon expected to be responsible for half of all US output. Other areas such as Pennsylvania, with its expansive fracking economy, also seem likely to benefit.
Across the Atlantic, much of Europe’s declining influence stems from its ruinous embrace of Net Zero policies. Britain, once an energy power, has dropped its previously substantial fossil fuel production by two-thirds since the turn of the century — all while consumption has only fallen by a third. The country increasingly depends on imports from outside the European Union, even as an estimated 25 billion barrels remain untapped in the North Sea.
Other European countries, notably Germany, suffer from the same dilemma, as high prices have undermined once-potent industrial economies. Much of the continent has simply shifted its dependence from Russian oil and gas to Gulf producers such as Qatar, a country which has consistently bankrolled Islamist radicalism. In contrast, the only state in contiguous America which imports most of its crude oil energy from foreign countries is hyper-liberal California.
As Europe appears resigned to the sidelines of the Middle East conflict, another significant advantage held by Trump is in military technology and cutting-edge defence systems. This includes everything from stealth technology, as shown by the success of Saturday’s B-2 attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, to developing artificial intelligence-based systems from the likes of Anduril and Palantir.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
A red anti-Israel activist as next mayor of New York? In the cradle of capitalism and the largest diaspora city in the world? It may still be unlikely but the meteoric rise of New York assemblyman, 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, tells us much about the potential of the redistributionist Left not only in America but across the West.
Many pundits, both Right and Left, express dismay about the surge of Right-wing populists, not only in America but across much of Europe and, now, under Nigel Farage, in the UK as well. Yet rather than a powerful, inexorable shift to the Right, we could just as likely be at the beginning of a new surging red tide.
To be sure, as long as the Left clings to issues like transgender sports, slavery reparations, racial quotas and the defunding of police support, the Right seems likely to prevail. But in a host of key economic and demographic areas, we could see a shift not to the mild Clinton or Blair centre-Left, but to something far more radical, and openly anti-capitalist.
The reason for this shift lies in economics. Even as neo-liberalism has delivered brilliantly for the elite classes, and the highly educated middle classes, it has never worked well for the aspirations of most middle and working class Westerners. Across the 36 wealthier countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the middle class “looks increasingly like a boat in rocky waters”, according to a report by that organisation.
Critically, home ownership, the ultimate symbol of middle class respectability, is fading out of sight for many. In the United States, the chance of middle-class earners moving up to the top rungs of the earnings ladder has dropped by approximately 20 per cent since the early 1980s, while life expectancy in the US has been declining.
So even as the vast majority of Americans reject the Left’s cultural agenda, they also, by roughly four-to-one, favour higher taxes on the rich and government-imposed reductions on drug prices. Indeed a strong majority of people in 28 countries, according to an Edelman survey, believe capitalism does more harm than good. More than four in five worry about job losses, most particularly from automation. Inequality and general fear of downward mobility naturally lead to a rise in support for expanded government and greater re-distribution of wealth.
Current economic changes, notably artificial intelligence, seem likely to boost the ranks of the downwardly mobile educated classes. In the US, some 40 per cent of recent graduates are underemployed, working in jobs where their college credentials are essentially worthless. In the UK, roughly a third of young people doubt that they will reach their career goals. In the US, close to half of adults under 30 still live with their parents.
Low unemployment numbers hide the growing percentage of young working class people who now remain outside the labour pool entirely. In Europe, up to a fifth of the population under 30 is neither in school or a job, most resoundingly in Italy, the EU’s third largest economy. In the UK, one out of seven aged under 25 is on the economic sidelines, the highest level in a decade.
This younger, economically marginalised new proletariat – sometimes called the precariat – constitutes the base of Mamdani’s drive. His positions resonate here, notably frozen apartment rents, free buses and childcare – all paid by a rise in taxes on the wealthy.
New York may be the most alluring city in America for the wealthy with elite degrees, but it faces very high levels of inequality. Job growth has been weak and concentrated in low wage sectors like hospitality and tourism. And as incomes for most stagnate, housing costs have not done the same, rising to record levels this year.
But rising proletarianisation is not just a New York phenomenon. Radical redistributionism describes the policies of one potential future Democratic presidential candidate, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). AOC, a House representative, is also the person cited as the true face of the Democratic Party in some polling. Ocasio-Cortez, also considering a run to dethrone Charles Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, recently endorsed Mamdani, with whom she shares not only a political base but radical economic, anti-Israel and extreme green views.
The other beacon for the new Left lies in California. Home to the most billionaires as well as the highest levels of poverty in the nation, the Golden State has become a field of dreams for socialist groups like the Democratic Socialists of America. This openly Marxist group now has several seats on the LA City Council and seems on the verge of becoming a dominant force in California’s largest city. Due to its more proletarian population, LA has replaced more prosperous and professional San Francisco as the centre of California economic radicalism.
Similar phenomena can be seen in Europe, where an alliance of Leftist activists and Muslims made Trotskyite Jean-Luc Melenchon a favourite among younger voters. German working class voters have embraced the hard-right AfD, with almost 40 per cent, but also Die Linke, which is thought to have won a quarter of the youth votes in the latest elections, more than the Social Democrats and Greens combined. Others embraced the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which mixes socialism with a strong anti-immigrant twist.
In the end, New York will likely not elect Mamdani, in large part due to fear of crime, economic dislocation, as well as the opposition of the city’s still large Jewish population, roughly one in seven Gothamites. But Mamdani is only in his early 30s, and his rise suggests the potency of a coalition of young people, immigrants, and lower wage workers favourable to the radical redistribution of wealth and stomping out capitalism.
Unless proponents of capitalism awaken to these dangers, and address these concerns, the Left may yet rise again to the shock and consternation of those who so blithely celebrate its current demise.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
The economic and political landscape between the United States and Europe is undergoing a seismic shift as Trump’s tariff threats create ripples across the Atlantic. Our expert guests, Professor Veronica de Romanis from Rome and journalist Fraser Myers from London, provide fascinating insights into how European countries are responding to this new economic reality.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
The battle for New York City’s future is heating up as former Governor Andrew Cuomo faces off against progressive challenger Zoran Mamdani in what’s shaping up to be an unpredictable mayoral race. With ranked-choice voting, multiple candidates, and current Mayor Eric Adams making a last-minute decision not to run in the Democratic primary, the city’s political landscape has never been more complex.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
The Wall Street Journal reported on May 20 that “Big Pink,” the 42-story pink skyscraper in downtown Portland (photo below) had been offered for sale for a price 80% below what the present owners paid for the building ten years ago.
U.S. Bancorp Tower, a.k.a. "Big Pink" in Portland, Oregon. Source: Cacophony, via Wikimedia under CC 3.0 License.
The Journal repeated criticisms of downtown Portland in an article entitled “A Fire Sale of Portland’s Largest Office Tower Shows How Far the City Has Fallen,” with the following subtitle: “The once-premier building is now over half empty, reflecting how the Oregon city’s downtown is struggling with crime and other quality-of-life issues.”
The Journal reported that downtown Portland has the highest office vacancy rate of any of the nation’s 25 largest central business districts. Former tenant Digital Trends said that it left because the building was afflicted with “vagrants sleeping in hallways of vacant office floors” and that they were “starting fires in stairwells, smoking fentanyl and defecating in common areas” These allegations were contained in the Digital Trends lease termination lawsuit.
Digital Trends’ added that Big Pink became a “cesspool of criminal activity and vandalism.”
Big Pink had been built for US National Bank four decades ago. US National is in the process of leaving the building. The Journal article noted that a number of firms have moved out of Portland, which before the pandemic was considered to be among the most favored of cities among urban planners.
New Portland Mayor Keith Wilson is considered to be pro-business. Downtown newspaper, Willamette Week reported that the Mayor responded in an email to constituents: “I wish they’d covered our rapid improvements in public safety, new residents, business opportunities, regional destinations, and creatives,” Wilson wrote. “Instead, they focused on the upcoming sale of ‘Big Pink,’ an iconic part of the Portland skyline, and a business tenant who left over safety and livability concerns.”
The Mayor (who was not Mayor when the problems were the worst) is right to be concerned. Restoring a reputation for central city safety is difficult, as decades of less than desirable results have shown around the country. We wish him well.
This 3 minute presentation explains why both aircraft engine design and subdivision design remain stagnant.
Rick Harrison is President of Rick Harrison Site Design Studio and Neighborhood Innovations. Rick has been instrumental in advancing land planning techniques as well as technology for almost all professions tied to land development.
Amid the talk about tariffs and other Trumpian foibles, little attention has been paid to America’s festering housing crisis. This could prove a more lasting political issue in the US, as well as throughout much of the West.
These trends are the focus of a new report (to which I contributed an introduction) on global housing prices by Wendell Cox. High housing prices, he notes, are widely linked to strict regulatory policies, mostly seeking to hamper suburban growth and force development into urban cores. Almost all the US cities with the highest prices — San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego — have enacted these urban containment or compact city strategies, which force people to live in denser, smaller, and more expensive inner-city housing.
Such approaches are widely popular with planners, progressives, and green activists. However, by restricting development on the more affordable suburban fringe, they drive up housing costs across entire metropolitan areas. This has deepened a stark and unprecedented divide between US regions. In much of the country — especially the Midwest, parts of Pennsylvania, and the South — home prices remain affordable, with median prices roughly three times the median income. By contrast, in coastal California and much of the Northeast, that ratio has surged to around nine to one.
All of this has turned housing into a potent political issue. In a Gallup survey last month, Americans ranked housing as their top financial worry behind inflation. In a Harvard poll of 18- to 29-year-olds last year, housing ranked as the third-most important issue overall, after inflation and healthcare. Meanwhile, around 65% of California residents consider housing costs a major concern — an astonishing figure.
Prices also affect levels of homeownership, long a linchpin of middle-class aspiration. January home sales were down 5% from last year’s dismal numbers. Record numbers of first-time buyers are stuck on the sidelines as housing affordability stands at its lowest level in 40 years, and one in three pay over 30% of their income in mortgage or rent.
The young — tomorrow’s voters — are the most directly hit. According to US Census Bureau data, the rate of homeownership among young adults aged 25–34 was 45.4% for Generation X, but dropped to 37% for Millennials. This decline comes despite nearly three in five Millennials viewing homeownership as a core part of the American dream.
Ultimately, the differential in housing will upset America’s long-term political balance. Housing costs are driving young people, immigrants and minorities to Sun-Belt and even Rust-Belt locales, while the Northeastern and West Coast metros continue to lose domestic migrants. Few young people can expect to afford living in California, where the rich now dominate the housing market, and more than a third of all real-estate transactions in recent years topped $1 million.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
As the Feudal Future podcast marks its fifth anniversary, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky examine how dramatically our society has evolved since they first warned about the emergence of neo-feudalism—a concentration of wealth and power resembling historical feudal systems.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
President Trump announced that the federal government would no longer provide financial support to the California High-Speed Rail project, according to the New York Times.
According to Trump, “That train is the worst cost overrun I’ve ever seen,” “It’s, like, totally out of control.” He added: “This government is not going to pay.”
Izzy Gordon, spokesman for Governor Gain Newsom responded: “With 50 major structures built, walking away now as we enter the track-laying phase would be reckless — wasting billions already invested and letting job-killers cede a generational infrastructure advantage to China.”
In fact, the recklessness was California’s alone, which chose to spend billions of money that it did not have, apparently on the assumption that the taxpayers of the other 49 states would have no alternative but to continue funding. The “unused 50 major structures” could ultimately become a memorial to an overly costly project that had been oversold from the start. An appropriate name could be “Stonehenge in the Valley.”
Recently, Unleash Prosperity released my report (“California High-Speed Rail: Still Stuck at the Station”) suggesting that the presently estimated $128 billion ultimate cost to link Los Angeles to San Francisco could double that amount ($250 billion), if the cost escalation of the first third of the project continues. As the state established Peer Review Group has said, so far the work has been in the easy part. The much more complicated segments from Palmdale to Los Angeles
Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
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