The recently released 2020 Census count indicates that the nation now has 56 major metropolitan areas (over 1,000,000 residents), with the addition of Fresno, Tulsa and Honolulu toward the end of the decade. The Table below provides detailed information.
New York, the largest metropolitan area, climbed to 20.1 million from 18.9 million in 2010. New York had the second largest population increase, at 1,243,000. This was a 6.6% population increase, slightly below the 7.4% national growth rate. For the first time in decades, New York led Los Angeles in population growth, and it wasn’t even close. New York’s population increase was 3.3 times that of second ranked Los Angeles, which gained 372,000. The Los Angeles percentage growth rate (2.9%) was stunningly low for a metro that had been among the faster growing in the world for decades. Out of the 20 largest metropolitan areas, Los Angeles grew slower than all but two. Los Angeles edged up to 13.2 million according to the census count.
Chicago ranked third, at 9.6 million, having added only 157,000 (1.7%) over the last 10 years.
Fourth ranked Dallas-Fort Worth reached 7.6 million, an increase of 1,271,000, the largest increase of any metropolitan area (20.0%). However, in-state rival Houston had greater percentage growth, at 20.3%, adding 1,202,000 to reach 7.1 million and now ranks 5th largest.
Washington continued its strong growth, adding 736,000 new residents, the fifth strongest gain (13.0%). Washington now ranks sixth largest in the nation, at 6.4 million. During the decade, Washington passed Philadelphia, now ranked 7th , having also been passed by Houston and by Dallas-Fort Worth in the 2000s. In the 2020 census and since the 1960 census, Philadelphia had been the nation’s fourth largest metropolitan area. Philadelphia added 278,000 residents, with a population of 6.2 million in 2020.
Boston added 389,000 residents (8.5%) since 2010 and ranked 10th. Boston had a population of 4.9 million. Phoenix ranked 11th and had a 653,000 population increase (15.6%). San Francisco reached 4.8 million, with Riverside-San Bernardino following closely at 4.7 million. Both of these California metros had larger census count increases than Los Angeles.
Fourteenth ranked Detroit grew by nearly 100,000, for a 2.2% increase, which is rivals that of Los Angeles. Detroit’s count was 4.4 million. Detroit was passed by Phoenix and Riverside-San Bernardino over the decade.
Seattle ranked 14th and had a population of 4.0 million. Seattle gained 579,000 residents for a growth rate of 16.8%.
The fastest growing major metropolitan area was Austin, at 33.0% (567,000). Austin reached 2.3 million and ranks 28th largest. One other major metropolitan area had growth over half-a-million, Orlando, at 539,000, a growth rate of 25.3%. Orlando had a count of 2.7 million, ranking 22nd.
Overall, the major metropolitan areas grew above the national rate, at 9.4%. The 2020 total count for the 56 metros was 189.1 million, representing 57.1% of the national population. This is up from 55.9% in 2010. None of the major metros lost population, though there were some very thin gains. The slowest growing was Hartford, at 0.1%, followed by Cleveland (0.5%) and Pittsburgh (0.6%). Finally, areas outside the historical core municipalities had 78.2 % of the population growth, somewhat more than their 73.4% 2010 share of major metro population (see Note below).
Click the image above to download a PDF of the census information (opens in new tab or window)
On this episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Robyn Domber, DCI’s Vice President of Research, Lane Windham, Associate Director at Georgetown University‘s Kalmanovitz Initiative for Labor and the Working Poor, and Michael Bernick, Director of California’s labor department. The panel discusses the root causes of labor shortages and solutions for the future.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
The emergence of 69-year-old talk show host Larry Elder as the leading candidate to depose California’s Gavin Newsom is both odd and significant. Elder is no one’s idea of a politician, and when he called me for advice at the start of his run, I was perplexed. I thought Larry had it all — the nest egg, nice house, successful career.
Newsom, who I once described as Governor Preen, and his operatives in and out of the media, have already started attacking Elder. Under the talk show host, they claim, abortion rights will be restricted and the state’s crusade against climate change and social justice will be hampered. The irony is in the fact that Elder will be attacked as candidate of the rich and greedy in ads paid for by oligarchs who epitomise this very greed on a massive scale.
On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Doug Holte, the President of Irvine Company Office Properties and formerly served as a West Coast regional partner with the international real estate firm Hines, Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics (GWA), a research and consulting firm that helps employers understand and prepare for the future of work, and Andrew Segal, co-founder of Stemmons Enterprise software company. The panel discusses the effects of remote work and going back to the office that has exposed through the pandemic.
Join us for our free online event September 1st at 9am PST: THE WORLD AFTER COVID. The event will feature Richard Florida, the world’s premier urban expert, who will discuss the global future with leading experts from US, Europe, Africa and Asia. Florida, author of The Creative Class and the New Urban Crisis, will be followed by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in urban futures at Chapman; Behki Mahlobo, analyst and economic researcher at the Center of Risk Analysis in Johannesburg; Li Sun, expert of Chinese cities and professor at University of Leeds; and Laure Mandeville-Tostain, senior reporter for Le Figaro in Paris.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Chapman University’s Vice President for Research, Thomas Piechota hosts Ask the Experts Virtual Town Hall: The World After COVIDon Wednesday, September 1st from 9:00 – 10:00 AM PST. The event will feature Richard Florida, the world’s premier urban expert, who will discuss the global future with leading experts from US, Europe, Africa and Asia. Florida, author of The Creative Class and the New Urban Crisis, will be followed by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in urban futures at Chapman University; Behki Mahlobo, analyst and economic researcher at the Center of Risk Analysis in Johannesburg; Li Sun, expert of Chinese cities and professor at University of Leeds; and Laure Mandeville-Tostain, senior reporter for Le Figaro in Paris.
The discussion will be moderated by Marshall Toplansky of Chapman University.
The San Francisco Chronicle reports that the office vacancy rate has reached 20% in downtown San Francisco. Socket Site reports that this is the equivalent of 12.7 Salesforce Towers. Salesforce Tower is the tallest building in San Francisco and is the centerpiece of the new Transbay Terminal, which has been named the Salesforce Transit Terminal. Socket Site estimates that this is enough space to house between 98,000 and 133,000 employees. This is between one-third and one-fourth the pre-pandemic employment level of downtown San Francisco, the fourth largest central business district in the nation.
Heartland Forward's newest report is all about "opportunity occupations," jobs that offer middle-class wages but do not require a four-year degree. The report shows that opportunity occupations make up a significant share of the jobs available in both non-metro and metro regions in the Heartland—more so than non-Heartland comparison states like California or Florida. These jobs provide a pathway to revitalizing the middle class.
On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Susan Seely, chair of Women in Leadership, and Edward Hayman, editor of Tablet, and Rabbi Eliezrie, who serves on the Board of Governors of the Jewish Agency, Chabad’s National Liason to Jewish Federations of North America.
He (Rabbi Eliezrie) is involved in Chabad national affairs as a member of the Internet Commission of Lubavitch World Headquarters, the Advisory Committee of the Jewish Learning Institute, the Coordinating Committee of the National Jewish Retreat and the International Conference of Shluchim.
[ 3:28] Perception of Anti-Semitism in Israel and America
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Editors Note: The following letter was sent by Alan E Pisarski to The Wall Street Journal in response to articles on highway productivity in the context of highway productivity and current proposals for highway spending. Pisarski is creator and author of the Commuting in America series a member of the consulting team to the Transportation Research Board (TRB) study of the upgrading of the Interstate highway system. The letter was not accepted for publication, but we are pleased to print it here.
PROPOSED LETTER TO EDITOR: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The WSJ in a piece by David Harrison written July 4 and now expanded in an addition on July 14 is aimed at questioning the federal spending being focused on roads. It introduces all of the standard research papers from over the years as if they were really news. We should do benefit-cost analyses – what a breakthrough thought! Basically, the pieces suggest what the transportation community has been doing for 50 years. The biggest payoffs are early in a road systems life – if the investment were rational one would expect so wouldn’t one. That point was made in research in the 90’s on the massive pay offs generated by the Interstates on the order of 25% of all productivity growth over two decades. The Federal Highway Administration has had a standard process for highways and bridges addressing all those points for decades. What he could have noted is that the data to drive that work is terribly outdated, mandated to be reported every two years and is still waiting. The data that Congress requires to base investments on are now 7 years old. But probably no one has looked at it, certainly no one has noticed its late! All of the data in the present debate in Washington is of the order of: my number is bigger than your number. No sense of quantitative analysis has even been in the room when financial “plans” are being waved about.
While David Harrison’s summary treatment of highway spending and productivity has a lot to commend it. There is great care needed in automatically assuming highway infrastructure spending will not generate greater productivity. His argument goes wrong in at least two areas:
The first is that travel increases on new roads, labeled “induced demand” is somehow unproductive – “the roads just fill up again” argument. That demand is a good thing. It means that more people and goods can go where they want, when they want and how they want – close to a perfect definition of transportation productivity. Would we make that argument about any other form of facility investment? The hospital just filled up again; the library just filled up again; the school filled up again – let’s not build anymore of them. “Induced” demand is really latent demand that had been deferred because of lack of adequate accessibility.
The second point, that we learned in the National Academies study of the Interstates, Transportation Research Board Special Report 329, reported to Congress in 2019 is that the doubled population growth and the economic growth since the building of the interstates has generated demand in new places. What was the population of Las Vegas and Phoenix in 1956 when we designed the Interstates? That’s why there isn’t one between those two massive regions. Take a look around. Bringing access to new areas can be an immense boon to productivity. Moreover, the economists are tragically weak on their ability to assess the logistical needs of interstate commerce and international competitiveness. To assume that there are no new connections or improvements needed is utterly unsupported and needs far more serious study. We can all agree that our transportation economic statistics are really in need of updating. Where in this legislation is there support for the Constitutional mandate to defend and support interstate commerce?
Finally, just the upgrading of our present highway systems, meeting the backlog of maintenance and upgrading the system to respond to new technologies on the horizon can keep a properly designed investment process productive for a decade or more.
In an article entitled “Financial hit from Covid far less drastic than feared,” The Times of London reported on July 8 reported that “Unemployment, debt and earnings have not worsened significantly as a result of the pandemic, Britain’s leading economic think tank has concluded, hailing the findings as “astonishing”.
The report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) expressed “surprise” that unemployment is much lower than was expected, that there has been only a small increase in people in arrears on bills and that the number of people using food banks increased minimally during the pandemic and is now below pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, IFS noted “while the national picture was remarkable, its figures masked groups who have seen clear increases in hardship, particularly the self-employed and families already experiencing in-work poverty before the pandemic hit.”
The article attributed the positive developments to government interventions to support working people, more than one-third of whom received government support during the pandemic.
We add that, had it not been for the conversion to remote work, these results could not have been achieved. According to the OECD (See Note below), in Mid April of 2020, 49% of the United Kingdom pre-pandemic work force was working remotely, while 20% were working at their physical employment locations, leaving 31% who were not working (Figure). This data suggests that about 70% of the working population was teleworking (Figure). Had remote work not been embraced, the unemployment rate would have been far higher and the economic disruption would likely have been at least as bad as the most dire expectations.
Note: OECD, “Working during COVID-19: Cross-country evidence from real-time survey data.” At oecd-ilibrary.org
Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
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