Still Moving to the Suburbs and Exurbs: The 2011 Census Estimates

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The new 2011 Census Bureau county and metropolitan area population estimates indicate that Americans are staying put. Over the past year, 590,000 people moved between the nation's counties. This domestic migration (people moving within the nation) compares to an annual rate of 1,080,000 between the 2000 and 2009. Inter-county domestic migration peaked in 2006 at nearly 1,620,000 and has been falling since that time (Figure 1). The continuing low rate of domestic migration has been reinforced by the economic malaise that has kept job and income growth well below levels that would be expected in a more genuine recovery.

Yet the nation has continued to grow. With less domestic migration, natural growth (births minus deaths) and considerable, but slower international migration, growth over the past year has been more in proportion to total population. The movement between counties within major metropolitan areas has become less of a factor. Predictably, there the usual doom and gloom reports  about suburbs and exurbs and how poorly they are doing compared to before, and how people are returning to the cities (Note 1). As usual, the data shows no such thing, as people continue to move from core counties in greater numbers than others move in (See Note 2 on county classifications).

Domestic Migration: Despite the higher gasoline prices and the illusions of a press that is often anti-suburban, both the suburbs and the exurbs continued to attract people from elsewhere in the nation. The core counties, which contain the core cities, continued to lose domestic migrants to other parts of the country, principally to the suburbs and the exurbs of the large metropolitan areas.

Over the past year, the core counties of major metropolitan areas lost 67,000 domestic migrants (people move between a metropolitan area and somewhere else in the nation). Suburban counties gained approximately 72,000 domestic migrants, while exurban counties gained 49,000 domestic migrants (Figure 2). Because of their lower population base, exurban counties had the highest relative rate of net domestic migration, at 0.34% of their 2010 population. This is more than three times the rate of the suburban counties (0.11%) and far higher than the minus 0.09% of the core counties (Figure 3). Thus, the overall slower rate of growth among exurban counties was due to a lower natural growth rate and less international migration, not the result of any losses to the core. The same is true, to a lesser extent, of the suburban counties.


Overall, the major metropolitan areas gained 48,500 domestic migrants between 2010 and 2011. By contrast, between 2000 and 2009, the major metropolitan areas lost, on average, nearly 200,000 domestic migrants to the rest of the nation each year. The huge domestic out migration in the last decade has been associated with the housing bubble. Less affordable housing markets lost 3.2 million domestic migrants between 2000 and 2009. More affordable markets gained 1.7 million domestic migrants. This was not enough to negate the losses in the higher cost markets, and major metropolitan markets lost 1.5 million domestic migrants overall.

Natural Growth: As the grim economic times induced people to stay put, core counties grew marginally faster than suburban and exurban counties principally because of higher natural growth rates, which is the net of births minus deaths. More than 70% of the higher population in core counties was from natural growth. Natural growth was less of a factor in the suburban counties, at 60%. In the exurban counties, natural growth accounted for only 47% of the population growth (Table 1). The higher core county natural growth rates are especially evident where there are large foreign born populations, due to their generally higher birth rates (such as Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and Riverside-San Bernardino, as well as Raleigh and Salt Lake City).

International Migration: The other component of growth was international migration, which contributed 38% of the growth in core counties and 29% of the growth in suburban counties. International migration was much less important in the exurban counties, contributing only 15% of the growth (Table 1)



Table 1
Major Metropolitan Areas
Components of Population Change: 2010-2011: Summary by Sector
 Net Domestic Migration   Net International Migration   Natural Increase (Births Minus Deaths) 
Core Counties -8.5% 37.6% 70.8%
Suburban Counties 11.2% 29.0% 59.8%
Exurban Counties 37.9% 14.5% 47.4%
Multi-County Major Metropolitan Areas 3.5% 32.1% 64.3%
Single County Major Metropolitan Areas -10.9% 34.5% 76.7%
Major Metropolitan Areas with More Than 1 County 3.0% 32.2% 64.7%
Single County Major Metropolitan Areas: San Diego and Las Vegas

 

The Gainers: The fastest growing major metropolitan areas were dominated by the four largest Texas metropolitan areas. Austin (3.2%), Dallas-Fort Worth (2.0%), Houston (1.9%) and San Antonio (1.9%) were all among the five fastest growing. Raleigh placed second, with a one-year growth rate of 2.3%. The top five numeric gainers in domestic migration were in all in Texas or Florida --- Dallas-Fort Worth (39,000), Miami (36,000), Austin (31,000), Tampa-St. Petersburg (27,000) and Houston (21,000). The much improved housing affordability in Florida seems likely to be a factor in the recovery of Miami and Tampa-St. Petersburg. Further, Houston became the second Texas metropolitan area to exceed Philadelphia in population, following Dallas-Fort Worth in the last decade. Texas thus becomes the first state to place two metropolitan areas in the five largest in the nation (Table 2).




Table 2
Major Metropolitan Areas: Population
Population: 2010-2011
Metropolitan Area 2010 2011 Change % Change
New York, NY-NJ-PA        18,919,649        19,015,900                  96,251 0.51%
Los Angeles, CA        12,844,371        12,944,801                100,430 0.78%
Chicago, IL-IN-WI          9,472,584          9,504,753                  32,169 0.34%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX          6,400,511          6,526,548                126,037 1.97%
Houston. TX          5,976,470          6,086,538                110,068 1.84%
Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD          5,971,589          5,992,414                  20,825 0.35%
Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV          5,609,150          5,703,948                  94,798 1.69%
Miami, FL          5,578,080          5,670,125                  92,045 1.65%
Atlanta, GA          5,286,296          5,359,205                  72,909 1.38%
Boston, MA-NH          4,559,372          4,591,112                  31,740 0.70%
San Francisco-Oakland, CA          4,343,381          4,391,037                  47,656 1.10%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA          4,245,005          4,304,997                  59,992 1.41%
Detroit. MI          4,290,722          4,285,832                   (4,890) -0.11%
Phoenix, AZ          4,209,070          4,263,236                  54,166 1.29%
Seattle, WA          3,447,886          3,500,026                  52,140 1.51%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI          3,285,913          3,318,486                  32,573 0.99%
San Diego, CA          3,105,115          3,140,069                  34,954 1.13%
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL          2,788,151          2,824,724                  36,573 1.31%
St. Louis, MO-IL          2,814,722          2,817,355                     2,633 0.09%
Baltimore, MD          2,714,546          2,729,110                  14,564 0.54%
Denver, CO          2,554,569          2,599,504                  44,935 1.76%
Pittsburgh, PA          2,357,951          2,359,746                     1,795 0.08%
Portland, OR-WA          2,232,896          2,262,605                  29,709 1.33%
San Antonio, TX          2,153,891          2,194,927                  41,036 1.91%
Sacramento, CA          2,154,583          2,176,235                  21,652 1.00%
Orlando, FL          2,139,615          2,171,360                  31,745 1.48%
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN          2,132,415          2,138,038                     5,623 0.26%
Cleveland, OH          2,075,540          2,068,283                   (7,257) -0.35%
Kansas City,  MO-KS          2,039,766          2,052,676                  12,910 0.63%
Las Vegas, NV          1,953,927          1,969,975                  16,048 0.82%
San Jose, CA          1,841,787          1,865,450                  23,663 1.28%
Columbus, OH          1,840,584          1,858,464                  17,880 0.97%
Charlotte, NC-SC          1,763,969          1,795,472                  31,503 1.79%
Austin, TX          1,728,247          1,783,519                  55,272 3.20%
Indianapolis, IN          1,760,826          1,778,568                  17,742 1.01%
Virginia Beach (Norfolk), VA-NC          1,674,502          1,679,894                     5,392 0.32%
Nashville, TN          1,594,885          1,617,142                  22,257 1.40%
Providence, RI-MA          1,601,065          1,600,224                      (841) -0.05%
Milwaukee, WI          1,556,953          1,562,216                     5,263 0.34%
Jacksonville, FL          1,348,702          1,360,251                  11,549 0.86%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR          1,318,089          1,325,605                     7,516 0.57%
Louisville, KY-IN          1,285,891          1,294,849                     8,958 0.70%
Oklahoma City, OK          1,258,111          1,278,053                  19,942 1.59%
Richmond, VA          1,260,396          1,269,380                     8,984 0.71%
Hartford, CT          1,212,491          1,213,255                        764 0.06%
New Orleans, LA          1,173,572          1,191,089                  17,517 1.49%
Raleigh, NC          1,137,297          1,163,515                  26,218 2.31%
Salt Lake City, UT          1,128,269          1,145,905                  17,636 1.56%
Buffalo, NY          1,135,293          1,134,039                   (1,254) -0.11%
Birmingham, AL          1,129,068          1,132,264                     3,196 0.28%
Rochester, NY          1,054,723          1,055,278                        555 0.05%
Total      167,462,456      169,067,997             1,605,541 0.96%
Data derived from US Bureau of the Census
Major Metropolitan Areas: Over 1,000,000 Population

 

The Losers: Four metropolitan areas, Detroit, Cleveland, Providence and Buffalo suffered small population losses. Pittsburgh had a small gain, but was alone in having an excess of deaths over births. New York again led the nation in its net domestic migration loss, at 99,000. Chicago lost 54,000 and Los Angeles lost 51,000 residents to other areas of the country between 2010 and 2011, while Detroit lost 24,000. Domestic migration data is available for New York City because it is composed of five counties. New York City lost 57,000 domestic migrants (Table 3).




Table 3
Major Metropolitan Areas
Components of Population Change: 2010-2011
 Net Domestic Migration   Net International Migration   Natural Increase (Births Minus Deaths)  Total Components of Change (Note)
New York, NY-NJ-PA              (98,975)                83,322                112,336               96,683
Los Angeles, CA              (50,549)                54,725                  96,150             100,326
Chicago, IL-IN-WI              (53,908)                24,422                  61,483               31,997
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX                39,021                23,291                  63,504             125,816
Houston. TX                21,580                24,105                  64,363             110,048
Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD              (13,133)                11,413                  22,769               21,049
Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV                21,517                24,872                  48,235               94,624
Miami, FL                36,191                35,215                  20,440               91,846
Atlanta, GA                12,419                17,370                  42,908               72,697
Boston, MA-NH                 (1,627)                15,494                  18,143               32,010
San Francisco-Oakland, CA                  5,880                17,996                  23,939               47,815
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA                15,131                  9,065                  35,826               60,022
Detroit. MI              (24,170)                  7,468                  11,734                (4,968)
Phoenix, AZ                  5,585                15,866                  32,847               54,298
Seattle, WA                17,598                12,228                  22,280               52,106
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI                      536                  7,832                  24,296               32,664
San Diego, CA                      816                  9,591                  24,703               35,110
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL                27,157                  6,857                     2,318               36,332
St. Louis, MO-IL              (10,260)                  2,671                  10,256                 2,667
Baltimore, MD                 (1,341)                  5,004                  10,941               14,604
Denver, CO                19,565                  5,204                  19,997               44,766
Pittsburgh, PA                  3,740                  1,426                   (3,260)                 1,906
Portland, OR-WA                11,388                  4,806                  13,511               29,705
San Antonio, TX                19,515                  3,841                  17,486               40,842
Sacramento, CA                  2,856                  6,173                  12,659               21,688
Orlando, FL                10,394                  9,767                  11,557               31,718
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN                 (7,149)                  2,152                  10,624                 5,627
Cleveland, OH              (12,521)                  1,896                     3,344                (7,281)
Kansas City,  MO-KS                 (2,820)                  3,009                  12,705               12,894
Las Vegas, NV                 (6,353)                  8,007                  14,395               16,049
San Jose, CA                 (2,704)                11,072                  15,376               23,744
Columbus, OH                  2,219                  3,329                  12,390               17,938
Charlotte, NC-SC                13,778                  4,581                  13,038               31,397
Austin, TX                30,669                  6,134                  18,085               54,888
Indianapolis, IN                  1,940                  2,953                  12,827               17,720
Virginia Beach (Norfolk), VA-NC                 (7,086)                  2,382                  10,044                 5,340
Nashville, TN                  9,323                  3,015                     9,867               22,205
Providence, RI-MA                 (6,254)                  2,487                     2,940                   (827)
Milwaukee, WI                 (4,862)                  1,796                     8,384                 5,318
Jacksonville, FL                  2,911                  1,935                     6,691               11,537
Memphis, TN-MS-AR                 (2,933)                  1,841                     8,615                 7,523
Louisville, KY-IN                  1,886                  1,711                     5,400                 8,997
Oklahoma City, OK                  8,746                  2,228                     8,904               19,878
Richmond, VA                  1,546                  1,965                     5,519                 9,030
Hartford, CT                 (4,749)                  3,066                     2,493                     810
New Orleans, LA                10,153                  1,563                     5,630               17,346
Raleigh, NC                13,262                  3,228                     9,608               26,098
Salt Lake City, UT                      915                  3,090                  13,674               17,679
Buffalo, NY                 (2,558)                  1,185                        176                (1,197)
Birmingham, AL                 (2,452)                  1,245                     4,421                 3,214
Rochester, NY                 (3,320)                  1,235                     2,650                     565
Total                48,513              517,129             1,039,221         1,604,863
3.0% 32.2% 64.8% 100.0%
Data derived from US Bureau of the Census
Major Metropolitan Areas: Over 1,000,000 Population
Excludes San Diego and Las Vegas, which have only a single county

 

Captive v. Discretionary Markets? One year's data does not make a trend, especially in unusual times. Until the nation returns to normal economic growth, many young who would otherwise move are staying put, as well as young families that would be looking for larger houses. The driving factor in the more modest domestic migration trends observed today could well be necessity rather than desire.

Wendell Cox is a Visiting Professor, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris and the author of “War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life

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Note 1: It is a misconception that suburbs and exurbs have grown principally because people have moved from cities. In fact, most suburban and exurban growth has been from smaller towns and rural areas. See Cities and Suburbs: The Unexpected Truth. Components of change data (domestic migration, international migration and natural growth) is available only at the county level. Thus, city or municipality data is only available where a municipality and a county are combined.

Note 2: The core county contains all or most of the largest historical core municipality (see Suburbanized Core Cities) in the metropolitan area, except in New York, where all five counties that comprise the city of New York are classified as core counties. The suburban counties are those designated by the Bureau of the Census as central counties, but exclude the core counties. The exurban counties are as classified by the Bureau of the Census.

Note 3: The largest historical core municipalities comprise slightly more than 55 percent of the core county population (both figures combined).

Photo: Chicago (West Wacker Drive) By Author