Metropolitan America Expands (Especially Where Housing is Expensive)

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Metropolitan America continues to expand, based on the latest Census Bureau population estimates and metropolitan area geographical delineations from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB). In 2018, metropolitan areas (including micropolitan areas) contained 94.6 percent of the US population. This is an increase of nearly a full percentage point from the 2010 census, which found 93.7 percent of the US population in metropolitan areas. This article uses the term "metropolitan" to apply to both metropolitan and "micropolitan" areas, since the difference is the population of the urban core (urban area).

This large metropolitan portion of the population may be surprising, since the Census Bureau reported only 80.7 percent of the population to be urban in 2010. In fact, 75 percent of rural residents live in metropolitan areas (Figure 1).

OMB also designates combined metropolitan areas, where the economic ties, based on commuting, are substantial, but not as strong as between adjacent metropolitan areas. These are called combined statistical areas (CSA). This article ranks CSA's and MSAs by population based on the September 14, 2018 OMB delineation and 2018 population estimates. The primary contrast between the two is that some MSAs lack adjacent MSA's with sufficient economic ties to create a CSA.

The updated list includes 558 CSAs/MSAs, ranging in size from New York, at 22.7 million to Lamesa, Texas, at 12,600. Since 2010, the total population of the CSAs/MSAs has risen by 18.7 million, compared to the national growth of 18.4 million. Areas outside the CSAs/MSAs lost 300,000 residents. The Table lists the 61 CSAs/MSAs with more than 1,000,000 residents in 2018. A complete listing is on demographia.com.

Population growth has been centered in the 57 CSAs/MSAs that had populations of 1.0 to 10.0 million in the 2010 census, with slower growth in the megacities and the metropolitan areas with fewer than one million residents.

The CSAs/MSAs with populations from 2.5 to 5.0 million residents grew at an annual rate of 1.27 percent, more than twice the national rate of 0.60 percent. There was a wide range, however in this growth. The fastest growing CSAs/MSAs in this category was Orlando, at 2.41 percent annually. The largest loss was in Cleveland, at minus 0.12 percent.

The CSAs/MSAs with from 1.0 to 2.5 million residents added population at a rate of 1.06 percent annually, also well above the national average. Austin had the strongest growth rate, at 3.28 percent annually, the top rate among all of the 2010CSAs/MSAs with more than 1,000,000 population. Pittsburgh experienced the greatest population loss, at minus 0.25 percent.

The CSAs/MSAs with from 5.0 million to 10.0 million residents grew by a rate of 1.04 percent annually, also well above the national average. Houston grew the fastest in this category, at 2.28 percent annually, followed closely by Dallas-Fort Worth, at 2.16 percent. Detroit's growth was the least, at 0.09 percent annually.

The two megacities (over 10,000,000 population), grew at a 0.44 percent annual rate, well below the national average. Los Angeles added 0.67 percent per year, while New York added 0.26 percent.

Population growth rates were lower in the below 1,000,000 categories, ranging from a 0.82 percent annual growth rate in CSAs/MSAswith from 500,000 to 1,000,000 population, ranging down to little more than zero in the CSAs/MSAs with less than 50,000 population.

The continuing extent of non-metropolitan population loss is indicated by the annual loss rate (minus 1.69 percent) for areas outside the CSAs/MSAs (Figure 2).
























The higher population growth among the CSAs/MSAs in the 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 is illustrated in Figure 3. In all other categories growth was nearly the same or less than the population share.

Chicago Could Lose Its #3 Position

Chicago's growth rate has nearly fallen to zero in the last eight years (0.04 percent annually, just 1/20th of the national rate). Megacity status, at 10 million, continues to elude Chicago, which was only 160,000 short in 2010. At its present rate of growth, it would take another 40 years to reach 10 million. That snail-like pace could relegate Chicago to sixth place by 2030. Washington-Baltimore would pass Chicago by the 2020 census at its current growth rate. San Jose-San Francisco would follow in the next decade. Dallas-Fort Worth, if it continues its present torrid pace, could pass Chicago by 2030.

The Expanding Combined Statistical Area

Just in the last six years, there has been an increase in the number of combined statistical areas,from 169 in 2013 to 175 in 2018. The number of metropolitan areas composing these CSAs rose from 541 to 546.

This geographical expansion was concentrated in areas with especially high housing costs, where people have been forced to drive farther to work to lives as they prefer. For example, the San Jose- San Francisco CSA (see: "Anti-Sprawl" Bay Area Leads Expanding Metropolitan Regions") has added San Joaquin (Stockton MSA), Stanislaus (Modesto MSA) and Merced (Merced MSA) counties, the latter of which extends 150 miles from the city of San Francisco. The Portland CSA (see: "Driving Farther to Qualify in Portland") has added Cowlitz (Longview MSA), Marion and Polk (Salem MSA), as well as Linn and Benton (Albany MSA) counties, parts of which are 100 miles from downtown Portland. The Seattle CSA, which already stretched more than 160 miles north to south, added Lewis County (Centralia MSA), nearly halfway to Portland. These CSAs added seven MSAs.

America's City Clusters?

Another way to look at the evolution of cities is clusters, such as the 19 city clusters that have been adopted in China. These emerging "super regions" may consist of cities that are hundreds of miles apart, or cities that are adjacent. The biggest and most obvious and adjacent are the Pearl River Delta (see "Ultimate City: The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area"), the Yangtze River Delta (see: "The Shanghai to Changzhou Adjacent Urban Areas") and Jingjinji (see: "The Evolving Urban Form: Jingjinji (Dispersing Beijing"). Others, like Chongqing-Chengdu and Wuhan-Changsha-Nanching are much farther apart (see map from The Economist).

Of course, economic integration gets harder with distance. But the American combined statistical areas, by virtue of criteria that require adjacency, can be considered city clusters. Examples are in the note below.







US Core Based Statistical Areas: 2010 to 2018
Combined Statistical Areas/Metropolitan Areas (including Micropolitan Areas)
Geographical Delineation at 2018.09
Rank Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) CSA or MSA 2010 Census 2018 2010C-2018% Annual %
1 New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA   22,255,491   22,679,948 1.9% 0.26%
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA CSA   17,877,006   18,764,814 5.0% 0.67%
3 Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CSA     9,840,929     9,866,910 0.3% 0.04%
4 Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA CSA     9,050,192     9,796,147 8.2% 1.10%
5 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA CSA     8,923,942     9,666,055 8.3% 1.11%
6 Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT CSA     7,893,376     8,285,407 5.0% 0.67%
7 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK CSA     6,807,747     7,948,477 16.8% 2.16%
8 Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA     7,067,807     7,204,035 1.9% 0.26%
9 Houston-The Woodlands, TX CSA     6,099,977     7,183,143 17.8% 2.28%
10 Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL CSA     6,199,860     6,913,262 11.5% 1.51%
11 Atlanta--Athens-Clarke County--Sandy Springs, GA-AL CSA     6,054,858     6,775,511 11.9% 1.56%
12 Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI CSA     5,318,744     5,353,002 0.6% 0.09%
13 Phoenix-Mesa, AZ CSA     4,246,484     4,911,851 15.7% 2.03%
14 Seattle-Tacoma, WA CSA     4,274,767     4,853,364 13.5% 1.77%
15 Orlando-Lakeland-Deltona, FL CSA     3,447,946     4,096,575 18.8% 2.41%
16 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI CSA     3,706,278     3,999,565 7.9% 1.06%
17 Cleveland-Akron-Canton, OH CSA     3,630,166     3,599,264 -0.9% -0.12%
18 Denver-Aurora, CO CSA     3,090,874     3,572,798 15.6% 2.02%
19 San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA MSA     3,095,313     3,343,364 8.0% 1.07%
20 Portland-Vancouver-Salem, OR-WA CSA     2,921,408     3,239,335 10.9% 1.44%
21 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA     2,783,243     3,142,663 12.9% 1.69%
22 St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA     2,892,497     2,909,777 0.6% 0.08%
23 Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC CSA     2,402,623     2,753,810 14.6% 1.90%
24 Sacramento-Roseville, CA CSA     2,414,783     2,619,754 8.5% 1.13%
25 Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, PA-OH-WV CSA     2,660,727     2,612,492 -1.8% -0.25%
26 Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT CSA     2,271,696     2,606,548 14.7% 1.91%
27 San Antonio-New Braunfels-Pearsall, TX CSA     2,159,725     2,537,852 17.5% 2.25%
28 Columbus-Marion-Zanesville, OH CSA     2,308,509     2,509,850 8.7% 1.16%
29 Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA     2,343,008     2,487,053 6.1% 0.83%
30 Indianapolis-Carmel-Muncie, IN CSA     2,266,569     2,431,361 7.3% 0.97%
31 Las Vegas-Henderson, NV CSA     1,995,215     2,276,993 14.1% 1.84%
32 Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville, OH-KY-IN CSA     2,197,197     2,272,152 3.4% 0.46%
33 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX MSA     1,716,289     2,168,316 26.3% 3.28%
34 Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha, WI CSA     2,025,989     2,049,391 1.2% 0.16%
35 Raleigh-Durham-Cary, NC CSA     1,740,185     2,042,649 17.4% 2.24%
36 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN CSA     1,763,744     2,032,353 15.2% 1.97%
37 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC CSA     1,801,988     1,854,604 2.9% 0.40%
38 Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point, NC CSA     1,589,200     1,677,551 5.6% 0.75%
39 Jacksonville-St. Marys-Palatka, FL-GA CSA     1,470,473     1,662,541 13.1% 1.71%
40 New Orleans-Metairie-Hammond, LA-MS CSA     1,413,965     1,506,145 6.5% 0.87%
41 Louisville/Jefferson County--Elizabethtown--Bardstown, KY-IN CSA     1,418,674     1,488,015 4.9% 0.66%
42 Hartford-East Hartford, CT CSA     1,486,436     1,473,084 -0.9% -0.12%
43 Oklahoma City-Shawnee, OK CSA     1,322,429     1,469,124 11.1% 1.46%
44 Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, SC CSA     1,336,656     1,454,117 8.8% 1.17%
45 Grand Rapids-Kentwood-Muskegon, MI CSA     1,320,064     1,406,918 6.6% 0.88%
46 Memphis-Forrest City, TN-MS-AR CSA     1,344,358     1,367,788 1.7% 0.24%
47 Birmingham-Hoover-Talladega, AL CSA     1,290,744     1,315,071 1.9% 0.26%
48 Fresno-Madera-Hanford, CA CSA     1,234,297     1,303,438 5.6% 0.75%
49 Richmond, VA MSA     1,186,501     1,282,442 8.1% 1.08%
50 Harrisburg-York-Lebanon, PA CSA     1,219,422     1,267,057 3.9% 0.53%
51 Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Olean, NY CSA     1,215,826     1,206,992 -0.7% -0.10%
52 Cape Coral-Fort Myers-Naples, FL CSA        979,414     1,174,654 19.9% 2.54%
53 Albany-Schenectady, NY CSA     1,168,485     1,171,593 0.3% 0.04%
54 Rochester-Batavia-Seneca Falls, NY CSA     1,175,001     1,162,893 -1.0% -0.14%
55 Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, NM CSA     1,123,717     1,156,187 2.9% 0.39%
56 Knoxville-Morristown-Sevierville, TN CSA     1,077,073     1,135,556 5.4% 0.73%
57 Tulsa-Muskogee-Bartlesville, OK CSA     1,059,444     1,114,002 5.1% 0.70%
58 Tucson-Nogales, AZ CSA     1,027,683     1,085,584 5.6% 0.76%
59 Dayton-Springfield-Kettering, OH CSA     1,080,044     1,079,837 0.0% 0.00%
60 El Paso-Las Cruces, TX-NM CSA     1,013,356     1,063,075 4.9% 0.66%
61 North Port-Sarasota, FL CSA        897,121     1,044,060 16.4% 2.11%
CSA: Combined Statistical Area 0.00%
MSA: Metropolitan or Micropolitan Statistical Area 0.00%
2010 Census: April 1, 2010 0.00%
Other estimates: July 1 of each year
Data derived from US Census Bureau

 

Internet Table with all 558 areas ranked:

Combined Statistical Areas/Metropolitan Areas (including Micropolitan Areas): 2010-8

Note: CSA Examples (city clusters): The New York CSA includes the New York, Trenton, Bridgeport-Stamford, New Haven, Poughkeepsie (NY), East Stroudsburg (PA), Kingston (NY) and Torrington (CT) metropolitan areas. The Los Angeles CSA includes the Los Angeles, Riverside-San Bernardino and Oxnard metropolitan areas. The Chicago CSA includes the Chicago, Kankakee (IL), Michigan City (IN) and Ottawa (IL) metropolitan areas. Dallas-Fort Worth CSA includes the Dallas-Fort Worth, Athens, Bonham, Corsicana, Gainesville, Granbury, Mineral Wells, Sherman (all TX) and Durant (OK) metropolitan areas. The Seattle CSA includes the Seattle, Olympia, Bremerton, Mount Vernon, Centralia, Shelton and Oak Harbor metropolitan areas. A complete list of the CSA components is in List 5 of the September 14, 2018 OMB delineation.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy and demographics firm. He is a Senior Fellow of the Center for Opportunity Urbanism (US), Senior Fellow for Housing Affordability and Municipal Policy for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy (Canada), and a member of the Board of Advisors of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University (California). He is co-author of the "Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey" and author of "Demographia World Urban Areas" and "War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life." He was appointed by Mayor Tom Bradley to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission, where he served with the leading city and county leadership as the only non-elected member. Speaker of the House of Representatives appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council. He served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, a national university in Paris.

Photograph: Portland, core of the 175 mile long Portland combined statistical area (Mount Adams in the background)