U-Haul Prices as Migration Indicator

Austin fared very well on this year's Best Cities Rankings, and here's another interesting indicator of the difference in migration between Austin and San Francisco:

"When comparing California with Texas, U-Haul says it all. To rent a 26-foot truck oneway from San Francisco to Austin, the charge is $3,236, and yet the one-way charge for that same truck from Austin to San Francisco is just $399. Clearly what is happening is that far more people want to move from San Francisco to Austin than vice versa, so U-Haul has to pay its own employees to drive the empty trucks back from Texas."

This anecdote comes from a report comparing business environments in Texas to California.

Here's a table of the latest domestic migration numbers from US Census for all metropolitan areas of more than 1.5 million total population (rate numbers are per 1,000 population):




NAME
Population, 2008
Net Domesitc Migration Rate, 2008
Ave. Net Domesic Mig Rate, 2001-2008
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 19,006,798 -7.6 -12.0
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 12,872,808 -9.0 -12.2
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 9,569,624 -4.4 -6.8
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 6,300,006 7.0 5.7
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,838,471 -3.8 -2.3
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 5,728,143 6.6 4.5
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 5,414,772 -8.7 -5.1
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 5,376,285 8.2 10.2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5,358,130 -3.4 -2.9
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 4,522,858 -1.8 -7.1
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 4,425,110 -13.9 -9.1
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4,281,899 12.3 17.9
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 4,274,531 1.3 -10.5
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4,115,871 -1.9 16.1
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 3,344,813 3.6 0.9
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3,229,878 -1.1 -1.0
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 3,001,072 0.1 -4.8
St. Louis, MO-IL 2,816,710 -2.0 -1.8
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,733,761 2.4 12.9
Baltimore-Towson, MD 2,667,117 -4.6 -1.6
Denver-Aurora, CO /1 2,506,626 7.3 1.8
Pittsburgh, PA 2,351,192 -1.0 -2.9
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 2,207,462 8.3 6.2
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 2,155,137 -1.7 -1.2
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA 2,109,832 2.2 8.7
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 2,088,291 -7.1 -7.5
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 2,054,574 1.6 15.9
San Antonio, TX 2,031,445 11.5 10.4
Kansas City, MO-KS 2,002,047 0.7 1.5
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 1,865,746 7.9 23.7
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1,819,198 -1.5 -16.4
Columbus, OH 1,773,120 1.4 1.8
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN 1,715,459 4.0 4.8
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 1,701,799 20.9 18.2
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 1,658,292 -9.4 -0.6
Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,652,602 22.0 17.2
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA 1,596,611 -6.6 -3.7
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 1,550,733 10.9 9.6
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 1,549,308 -4.2 -5.9

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Austin

A Texan once told me Austin was the only city in Texas worth living in and I still believe him. He stated, "Texas as a whole, politically, is one of the most rightwing states in the entire United States" and "generally speaking 'working mens' wages are much lower there than many other areas of the country". Maybe all the population growth will help Texas to become politically moderate!

u-haul prices

It's actually the exact opposite pricing scheme. U-Haul trucks aren't "sent back" anywhere, because it's a corporate fleet that randomly circulates. The same holds true of corporate rental cars. Prices are based on relative demand and estimated mileage. In other words, if the destination city really wants the vehicle, the price for inbounds will be low to increase inventory, and the outbound price will be very high to discourage it. So, if it's more expensive to move from San Francisco to Austin than vice versa, it means the trucks are needed more in San Francisco.

From math, random variations tend to cancel out. Related rates, from calculus, are what lead to inventory levels at any instant in time.

Check U-Haul's website if you really want a wordier explanation of this.