Donald Trump has now captured the presidency for a second time, while the Republican Party has taken back the Senate and looks on course to win the House of Representatives. Beyond these headlines, though, there may be many more beneficiaries of a Trump victory — and plenty of casualties, too.
Winners
The fossil fuel industry. Under Kamala Harris and a Democratic Congress, the now-thriving lords of oil and gas would have been facing a death sentence. Now, the Senate is sure to block any radical green policies, and perhaps the House as well. Given weakness in the marketplace and Republican hostility, green investors may have to find another line of work or move to Canada.
Red states. Their power will inevitably grow as jobs and people move there, notably to the South. There’s no chance that the high-tax states will gain back their émigrés, while policies encouraging manufacturing are likely to remain confined to the Sun Belt. This is manna from heaven for the growing coterie of young people in skilled trades, who may be the biggest winners of all, even as their professional rivals struggle. This election may also be a relief to communities on the US-Mexico border after Joe Biden’s administration failed to get a handle on immigration. Even Harris ended up calling for a border wall, and Trump now has the votes to make it happen.
Space travel and the military-industrial complex. By embracing tech mogul Elon Musk, the President-elect and his party have shown their openness to a new libertarian iteration of Silicon Valley. As SpaceX and much of the industry relocates largely to Florida and Texas, the Republicans will have many reasons to back more space spending. Similarly, the new wave of defence companies, such as Palantir and Anduril, can expect bigger contracts as the US rearms.
US-Israel relations. The Democrats have made a point of criticising Israel’s government, its leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and its military strategy. There is growing evidence of Iranian espionage influence in prominent DC circles which will stop with Trump. Yet while Israel may be happy with Trump’s return, so too might Russian President Vladimir Putin: cue the rekindling bromance.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
Much ink has been spilled – metaphorically at least – over how American politics has been nationalised to an unprecedented degree. Now people even choose to move based on politics, which makes more relevant the sharp regional divides, one reason why the candidates are spending their money and energy in only a handful of states.
This was not the case back when many states, even my adopted home of California, had a vibrant two party system. Today, most regions are increasingly monolithic, as people tend to move to states compatible with their ideological bent. Forty states now endure “trifecta” status, with one-party control of all branches of government, up from around 20 as recently as 2008.
In the past, Democrats could win elections, even at the presidential level, in the South, the current base of the Republicans, as well as in states such as Utah and Montana. After all, both Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton came from Dixie and also had some allies in Congress of a similar disposition. Today, the ranks of moderate – and politically savvy – Democrats in the South are down basically to a handful.
The Democrat base now lies in the if anything even more politically homogeneous West Coast and Northeast. Apart from Maryland’s Larry Hogan, there is not a single prominent Republican in either region; in all these states, the Congressional delegation tends to be overwhelmingly Democratic. The rise of Donald Trump seems to have accelerated the pace of change, wiping out the last vestiges of East Coast-style moderate Republicanism.
In New York, California, and Illinois, the three big Democratic states, Kamala Harris is up by as much as 20 points and never less than 15. At the same time, in the two big GOP states – Texas and Florida – Trump is ahead by comfortable, albeit closer, margins.
This regional divide is not exactly healthy for the overall unity of the country. More than anything, it reprises the long-standing conflict between established elites and wannabe, often less well-groomed, challengers. As the Arab historian Ibn Khaldun noted, there are always conflicts between rougher, more aggressive forces on the fringe and settled peoples living in urban centres.
Joel Kotkin is the author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class. He is the Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and and directs the Center for Demographics and Policy there. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute at the University of Texas in Austin. Learn more at joelkotkin.com and follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
What role do civility and unity play in the chaotic realm of presidential elective politics? Esteemed professors William Inboden and Luke Nichter join us to unravel the tumultuous history of presidential elections, drawing compelling parallels between past and present political climates. We dissect the pervasive influence of social media and foreign interference from countries like Russia and China, which contribute to modern political divisions, and we ponder the effectiveness of debates in today's polarized landscape.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
On October 10, The Wall Street Journal published a review of “Key to the City: How Zoning Shapes Our World” by Sara Bronin of Cornell University. The author of the review was Professor Edward Glaeser of Harvard University, surely one of the top housing economists.
I took issue with one of Prof. Glaeser’s points, and commented as follows (in the “Conversations” section following the article.
Prof. Glaeser is right in saying “When it comes to land controls, I’m pretty confident that the public sector has made the bigger blunders. However, I disagree with his characterization of the sides as "libertarian" and "interventionist." It is not a two-way continuum. On peripheral development, which is crucial both to a well functioning housing market and housing affordability, too many libertarians are with the interventionists in opposing organic development on and beyond the urban fringe. This urban containment and compact city philosophy is at the heart of much of what has become impossibly unaffordable housing that characterizes metropolitan housing markets from Vancouver to Toronto, Coastal California, Australia, London, and too much of Europe. Tragically, urban containment is an existential threat to the middle-class.
Global connectivity or fragmented realities? Professor Vicki Katz from Chapman University joins us to unpack the complex impact of social media on media literacy. This episode promises to illuminate how social platforms, while bridging distances, also fracture our information landscape. Curious about how this affects our ability to discern truth and the role of legislation in this dynamic? Listen in as we examine Section 230's influence on accountability and the shifting trust in mainstream media, guided by Dr. Katz’s expertise and the experiences of Jewish American students navigating diverse media worlds.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
The latest work access data (journey to work and work at home) has been released. In 2023, transit commuting remained 30% below its 2019 pre-pandemic level, at 3.5%. This is an improvement from 3.1% in 2022. Driving alone was also below the pre-pandemic level, at 69.2%, compared to 75.9%. This was largely the result of the hybrid work revolution, which drove the work from home level to 13.8%, up more than 240% from the pre-pandemic level. The 2023 figure is below the 15.2% level of 2022.
The strongest transit markets were New York, at 23.8% of commuters. No other major transit market exceeded a 10% market share. Before the pandemic, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Washington and Seattle typically exceeded 10% shares.
Some transit markets in which there were major capital expenditures for rail systems now have shares of 1.0% or less, including Austin, Charlotte, Dallas-Fort Worth and Virginia Beach-Norfolk.
The table below shows data for the 56 major metropolitan areas and national data.
Don’t give into the temptation to believe that the presently falling gasoline prices have something to do with the US Presidential election. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that China’s economic malaise is responsible. During the first six months of 2024, global oil demand increased only 800,000 barrels per day, down two-thirds from the first half of 2023 (2,300,000 barrels per day).re than twenty years' experience in planning, economic development, and community development, with stops in the public, private and non-profit sectors. He lives in Chicago.
IEA cites the increased utilization of electric vehicles in China, the reduction of travel by car and air, due to diversion to high-speed rail, though no data was provided on any of these factors.
Photo: An former airfield in Austin, Texas is being redeveloped into a multi-use community with both single and multi-family housing. By Matthew Rutledge via Flickr under CC 2.0 License.
Global trends are at a tipping point, and we have Emanuel Probst, global lead of brand thought leadership at Ipsos, to guide us through the chaos. Is nationalism the new norm, and can Gen Z be the bridge that connects a divided world? As we reminisce about the turbulent 1960s, we uncover the modern-day parallels of rising populism and disinformation. Emanuel shares his insights on how the youngest global generation harnesses technology for cross-border connections, even as these digital bonds threaten to weaken local communities and amplify social anxieties. Together, we weigh the pros and cons of this digital revolution and consider whether its benefits truly outweigh its challenges.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
What if a small nation could reshape the global landscape through sheer innovation and resilience? In this compelling episode of the Feudal Future Podcast, we welcome George Gilder, a visionary thinker and author, to illuminate how Israel’s technological prowess is revolutionizing industries worldwide. Gilder provides fascinating insights from his book, “The Israel Test: How Israel’s Genius Enriches and Challenges the World,” exploring groundbreaking contributions in computing, AI, and defense systems like the Iron Dome, which are not only transforming industries but also enhancing U.S. defense capabilities. We delve into Israel’s remarkable achievements in agriculture, turning barren deserts into fertile lands, becoming a leading agricultural exporter, and significantly reducing water consumption.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Discover how the heartland of America is transforming its political landscape on the Feudal Future podcast. Join us as we sit down with experts like William Binning and Michael Lind to unravel the historical shifts in Midwestern populism, tracing its journey from left-wing origins to its current right-leaning momentum. Learn about the pivotal role of Ohio and influential figures like James Traficant in catalyzing this political realignment, and gain insights into the broader implications for disenfranchised groups, including middle-class manufacturing workers and small business owners.
The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.
Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.
For additional information, please contact Mahnaz Asghari, sponsored project analyst for the Office of Research, at (714) 744-7635 or asghari@chapman.edu.
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
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