Evidence keeps mounting that conversion to the “hybrid” or “cloud” employment model is gaining steam. The Quebec government has announced its back to work program for provincial employees. The government administration Minister, Sonia LeBel announced that starting on September 7, up to one half of employees will be allowed to work from the office one or two days per week. After November 15, all employees will be required to work two days per week in the office.
Labour Minister Jean Boulet stressed that even with the hybrid model “If the 2-metre distance can’t be respected, we will have to ensure that there are physical barriers in place and that people wear a mask… Everyone will need to know how to respect these principles. Until Sept. 7, we have ample time to prepare and plan properly.”
The two Ministers also announced that all employees “whose job allows it” will be able to work up to three days at home starting at the beginning of 2022.
Minister LeBel said “The ‘3-2’ formula strikes the right balance. It gives workers the benefits of teleworking while consolidating our workplaces and strengthening the sense of belonging among employees.”
On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Julius Krein, editor of American Affairs, and Aaron Renn, an opinion-leading urban analyst, consultant, speaker, and writer on a mission to help America’s cities and people thrive and find real success in the 21st century.
Julius Krein is the editor of American Affairs. American Affairs is a quarterly journal of public policy and political thought. It was founded to provide a forum for people who believe that the conventional partisan platforms are no longer relevant to the most pressing challenges facing our country. The obsolescent ideologies and expectations of previous decades are constraining our political discourse. The hyper-partisan posturing of our politics masks an underlying conformity and complacency in our intellectual life. American Affairs, by contrast, seeks to advance a more ambitious discussion of the fundamental issues and divides of our time.
Aaron Renn focuses on urban, economic development, and infrastructure policy in the greater American Midwest. He also regularly contributes to and is cited by national and global media outlets. He is a columnist for Governing magazine and his work has appeared in the The Guardian (UK), The New York Times, and The Washington Post, along with many others. Renn was a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute from 2015-2019 and is a Contributing Editor at its quarterly magazine City Journal. Prior to his work in public policy, Renn had 15 year business career in management and technology consulting, where he was a partner at Accenture. He also founded the urban data analytics software platform Telestrian, which continues to underpin his work on cities.
[ 2:48] Changes in Wall Street and the financial community
[10:01] The effect of elite thinking on the middle class
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
We have previously shown that California is the least sprawling state, with an urban population density of 4,304 per square mile of land in 2010 (the last year for which such data is available --- new data will be reported in the 2020 census). This is slightly higher than New York, at 4,181, with its large lot New York City suburbs and low density urbanization upstate. This more than dilutes the effect of the nation’s densest large municipality (New York), which has more than 27,000 per square mile.
California’s urban densification between 2000 and 2010 was simply above and beyond that of any other state. The density of new urban development was 11,100 per square mile. (See: State Urban Density: 2000-2010 and below). This is nearly as dense as the city of Chicago, yet is spread all over the state, from Siskiyou County to Imperial --- and thus includes a lot of areas that can hardly be considered dense urban.
California’s density of new urban development was more than double that of number two --- Oregon, with its tough urban planning law. It is more than five times that of urbanization in the nation.
California has some of the most restrictive land use policies in the nation and there has been much analysis of the relationship between these and rising house prices. With California’s growth rate having dropped by 40% in the 2010s from the 2000s, and now losing population, these contrasts could be shown to be even greater when new data is released.
On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Andrew Romans, Venture Capitalist, 3x author, advisor to Corporate Venture Capital Groups & Host of podcast - Fireside with a VC.
Andrew Romans is the founder of 7BC Venture Capital and Rubicon Venture Capital. Andrew lives by the motto - only invest if you can add value – otherwise, you do not deserve to be in the deal. He has financially outperformed more than 75% of all VCs in Silicon Valley. Before becoming a VC he was a VC-backed entrepreneur and 3x author, former techVC and M&A investment banker, founder of The Founders Club & cofounder of Georgetown Angels. He is the author of Masters of Corporate Venture Capital, Masters of Blockchain & The Entrepreneurial Bible to Venture Capital, which have been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Italian and Russian by major publishers. Romans raised over $48m for tech startups he founded by the age of 28. He is fluent in English, French & German. MBA Georgetown University, which he completed on scholarship.
[ 2:33] Concentration of power in global tech
[ 6:45] Historians perspective of the power of tech giants
[16:30] The impact on the middle class and becoming labor slaves
[29:08] Effect of regulations on tech giants and a glimpse into the feudal future
This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.
Newgeography.com Context Note: We are pleased to present the following press release from the Housing Industry Association, Australia’s association of home builders. For some years, planners and governments have pursued densification policies that encourage households to choose multi-family rather than detached housing. Historically, detached housing has been dominant in Australia, but in the middle 2010s, multi-family housing was a majority of new construction in some months. With the pandemic, remote working and the increased demand for space — both in houses — and in gardens, detached housing construction rose strongly and again dominates housing construction.
On today’s episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by geopolitical analyst, Brandon J. Weichert author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, to discuss a real-life version of Star Wars.
Brandon J. Weichert is a geopolitical analyst who manages The Weichert Report: World News Done Right. He is also a contributor to The American Spectator and contributing editor at American Greatness. Recently, Brandon has become a contributor to Real Clear Public Affairs and his national security writings have appeared at Real Clear Politics, Real Clear World, Real Clear Defense, and Real Clear Policy. He also travels the country briefing elements of the Department of Defense and various private groups on national security and emerging technology issues. A recovering Congressional staffer, Brandon holds an M.A. in Statecraft and National Security Affairs from the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. and is an Associate Member of New College at Oxford University. Brandon lives by Herman Kahn’s mantra that, “I’m against fashionable thinking.” Therefore, his entire life’s work has been predicated on challenging conventional wisdom and assumptions on a variety of matters, notably in national security. He lives with his wife and daughters in Southwest Florida and can be reached via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
On this episode of Feudal Future, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Hank Adler, Associate Professor of Accounting for Chapman University, and Steven Malanga, City Journal’s senior editor, to discuss Biden's new tax plan.
Hank Adler was in public accounting for thirty-four years, the last twenty as a tax partner at Deloitte & Touche. He joined the faculty of Chapman University in 2003. Mr. Adler has served on several corporate and community boards of directors. His research has been published by The Wall Street Journal, Tax Notes, Prentice Hall and Tax Magazine. His interests include theories of taxation and board governance.
Steven Malanga is the George M. Yeager Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and City Journal’s senior editor. He writes about the intersection of urban economies, business communities, and public policy. Malanga is the author of The New New Left: How American Politics Works Today (2005); The Immigration Solution: A Better Plan than Today’s (2007), coauthored with Heather Mac Donald and Victor Davis Hanson; and Shakedown: The Continuing Conspiracy Against the American Taxpayer (2010).
The latest death rates as of April 30, 2021 from COVID-19 are displayed by US county urban density in Figure 1. This analysis is based on data reported by usafacts.org.
Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have the low to medium urban population densities characteristic suburban areas and account for 81% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million).
All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.
Despite considerable press coverage of fatality rates in rural areas, the fully rural counties (without urban areas), death rate remains 14% above the national average, virtually the same as at the end of 2020.
Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities with their widespread overcrowding, especially in insufficiently ventilated, overcrowded enclosures, such as in offices, elevators, transit, retail establishments and housing. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. Economic activity in the nation’s largest and densest urban cores (central business districts) is a small fraction of normal, as a result of strict lockdowns.
The city of Ottawa is updating its Official Plan. Under consideration are expanding the urban boundary (urban growth boundary) and strengthening of its intensification (densification)policy. These strategies are components of urban containment policy. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability from an international perspective. For the purposes of this report, urban containment policy includes growth management, compact city policy, intensification and any measures that can materially impact the cost of land or housing by rationing or prohibiting greenfield land development (such as urban growth boundaries and intensification mandates).
The Frontier Centre for Public Policy has just released Urban Containment Policy and Housing Affordability by Wendell Cox, a senior fellow with the Frontier Centre. This report examines the relationship between urban containment policy and housing affordability.
In the past two decades there has been growing concern about the deterioration in housing affordability across Canada. From 2000 to 2015, average house prices had risen three times that of before-tax average household incomes. This issue is not isolated to Canada; there has been a significant decline in housing affordability in several countries including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Urban containment policy has been strongly associated with higher house prices relative to incomes. This report also highlights the indirect consequences associated with urban containment, such as higher poverty rates and stunted economic growth.
To read this insightful paper, visit the Frontier Centre for Public Policy website: www.fcpp.org or Click Here.
The Frontier Centre for Public Policy is an independent, non-profit organization that undertakes research and education in support of economic growth and social outcomes that will enhance the quality of life in our communities. Through a variety of publications and public forums, the Centre explores policy innovations required to make the prairies region a winner in the open economy. It also provides new insights into solving important issues facing our cities, towns and provinces. These include improving the performance of public expenditures in important areas such as local government, education, health and social policy.
The US Census Bureau announced national, state and District of Columbia 2020 Census population totals yesterday. The big story in the media was the changes in Congressional apportionment, which are detailed later in this article.
Note: This article summarizes the first results of the 2020 census (national, states and DC). A table at the end of the article provides 2020 census figures, change from 2010, percentage change and comparison to expected, along with rankings in each category.
The big stories, from a demographic rather than a political perspective were (in my judgment) in California, New York and New Jersey, Texas and Florida, as well as the Mountain West.
California, Texas and Florida
First, as predicted, the California malaise continued. For the second Census in a row, California placed second after Texas in total population gain. Texas gained 4.0 million residents, while California gained 2.3 million. The Texas lead of 1.7 million nearly doubled compared to its 900,000 lead between 2000 to 2010. But there’s more. Florida also led California over the last census period by 450,000. California had added the largest number of residents in every census from 1930 through 2010.
New York and New Jersey
But the big surprise is New York, in which the Census Bureau was estimating an increase of about 75,000 residents between 2010 and 2019. The newly reported census figure for New York was up 823,000 from 2010, This more than doubles New York’s 2000-2010 gain.
There’s good reason to believe that the unexpected New York increase will be contained in the New York metropolitan area. New Jersey, much of which is included in the New York metropolitan area, also had a 2020 census reported population much higher than expected. Through 2019, the Census Bureau estimated that New Jersey’s population had risen just over 100,000 from 2010. The new 2020 estimate of 9.82 million is nearly 500,000 greater than in 2010.
It will be interesting to see the distribution of the higher population when figures are available
Utah, Idaho and the Top Five Proportionate Gainers
Meanwhile, the stars in proportionate population growth were in the Mountain West. Utah led with an 18.2% increase. Idaho was second at 17.3%. Despite its huge population, Texas slipped into the number 3 position, at 15.9%. North Dakota, in the Great Plains, added 15.0%, with its more than 100,000 increase being more the state gained from 1920 to 2010. Mountain West Nevada placed 5th with a 15.0% increase.
States Losing Population
The largest loss, at 3.2% was in West Virginia. Mississippi (minus 0.2%) and Illinois (minus 0.1%) also lost population
Changes in Apportionment
Based on the new census counts six states will gain seats in Congress. Texas will gain two seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one. Seven states will lose one seat apiece, including California, for the first time since becoming a state in 1850. Illinois, Michigan, New York (despite the unexpected gain), Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will also lose seats.
Infinite Suburbia is the culmination of the MIT Norman B. Leventhal Center for Advanced Urbanism's yearlong study of the future of suburban development. Find out more.
Authored by Aaron Renn, The Urban State of Mind: Meditations on the City is the first Urbanophile e-book, featuring provocative essays on the key issues facing our cities, including innovation, talent attraction and brain drain, global soft power, sustainability, economic development, and localism.
Email this Blog entry
