Obama Still Can Save His Presidency


A good friend of mine, a Democratic mayor here in California, describes the Obama administration as "Moveon.org run by the Chicago machine." This combination may have been good enough to beat John McCain in 2008, but it is proving a damned poor way to run a country or build a strong, effective political majority. And while the president's charismatic talent – and the lack of such among his opposition – may keep him in office, it will be largely as a kind of permanent lame duck unable to make any of the transformative changes he promised as a candidate.

If Obama wants to succeed as president he must grow into something more than movement icon, become more of a national leader. In effect, he needs to hit the reset button. Here are five key changes that Obama can implement to re-energize and save his presidency.

1. Forget the "Chicago way." The Windy City is a one-party town with a shrinking middle class and a fully co-opted business elite. The focused democratic centralism of the machine – as the University of Illinois' Richard Simpson has noted – worked brilliantly in the primaries and even the general election campaign. But it is hardly suited to running a nation that is more culturally and politically diverse.

The key rule of Chicago politics is delivering the spoils to supporters, and Obama's stimulus program essentially fills this prescription. The stimulus's biggest winners are such core backers as public employees, universities and rent-seeking businesses who leverage their access to government largesse, mostly by investing in nominally "green" industries. Roughly half the jobs saved form the ranks of teachers, a highly organized core constituency for the president and a mainstay of the political machine that supports the Democratic Party.

The other winners: big investment banks and private investment funds. People forget that Obama, even running against a sitting New York senator, emerged as an early favorite among the hedge fund grandees. As The New York Times' Andrew Sorkin put it back in April, "Mr. Obama might be struggling with the blue-collar vote in Pennsylvania, but he has nailed the hedge fund vote."

At best, the president's policy seems like Karl Rove in reverse, essentially smooching the core and ignoring the rest. This is a formula for more divisiveness, not the advertised "hope" Americans expected last November.

2. Focus on Real Jobs, Not Favored Constituencies . The Chicago approach works better in a closed political system controlled by a few powerbrokers than in a massive continental economy like the U.S. Health care and education, which depend on government largesse, are surviving. But the critical production side of the economy that generates good blue-collar jobs – like agriculture, manufacturing and construction – is getting the least from the stimulus.

These industries need more large-scale infrastructure spending, as well as more focused skills training and initiatives to free capital for politically unconnected entrepreneurial businesses. Instead, productive industries face the prospect of more regulation while capital for small businesses continues to dry up.

Those in post-industrial bastions tied to speculative capital – think Manhattan and the Hamptons – are the ones most benefiting from Obamanomics. College towns like Cambridge, Mass., Madison, Wis., Berkeley, Calif., and Palo Alto, Calif., will also prosper, becoming even richer and more self-important. It seems, then, that Obama has done best for elite graduates of Harvard and Stanford and other members of the "creative class."

The rest of America, however, is still waiting for a real sustained recovery. Industrial and office properties remain widely abandoned not only in Detroit but Silicon Valley. The future sustainability of our economy depends mostly on what happens to those who previously staffed these facilities – those who produced actual goods and services – not just on a relative handful of people working at Google or the national laboratories. In other words, we need jobs for machinists, welders and marketers as well as scientists with Ph.D's.

3. Step on the Gas. Providence has handed America – and Obama – an enormous gift in the now recoverable deposits of natural gas found across the continent. Proven levels have been soaring and now amount to 90 years' supply at current demand. More will be found, and across a wide section of the country.

Natural gas may be a fossil fuel, but it is relatively clean and thus the perfect intermediate solution to our energy problems. The problem: The president's green advisers will seek to prevent developing these resources.

Although Obama should support strong environmental controls on gas extraction, the greens should not be allowed to block this unique and historic opportunity to shift economic power back to North America. Along with modest increases in domestic and Canadian oil, natural gas could end our dependence on fossil fuels from outside North America. This would relieve our military from the onerous task of defending other people's oil supplies. But most important, the new energy sources could expand our industrial and agricultural economies so they can capitalize on the huge potential growth from markets at home and in the developing world.

The natural gas era could then finance continued research and deployment of renewable fuels. Let's give it the 10 or 20 years that great transformations require. Quick fixes will lead us to subsidize the purchase of rapidly dated technology from China or Europe; we should aim at the energy equivalent of the moon shot, helping forge a huge technological advantage.

4. Rediscover America. As a candidate, Obama spoke movingly about his Kansas roots, but lately he seems to have become all big city all the time. This administration offers very little to people who live in places like Kansas, as many of my heartland Democrat friends complain.

Urbanites often forget that this is an enormous country. Crowded into dense cities themselves, they fail to look down from the window when crossing the country by plane. The vast majority of America is, well, vast – sparsely settled, if settled at all.

Moreover, Obama's people need to understand that 80% of America live in suburbs or small towns. They do not want to live in dense cities or realize a move there would mean living in less than idyllic conditions. If Obama wants to shape a green America, he must find ways that work with the majority's preferences.

But so far the president's housing, transport and planning advisers seem to be pushing the death of suburbia and promoting ever more densification. It's hardly surprising, then, that suburbs and small towns feel left out. After finally starting to inch toward the Democrats, they are now turning again to the right. If Democrats want to retain their majority, they need the strong support of these constituencies – without it the Congressional majority will be gone by the end of the second term, if not the first.

5. Chuck the Nobel; Embrace Exceptionalism. Many progressives love Obama because they see him as one of them in the struggle with what the immortal Bill Maher calls "a stupid country." But the president should remind himself that the country may not be quite as dumb as it sometimes looks from Oslo – or from Dupont Circle, Cambridge or Soho.

Being smart was part of the reason the Republicans lost the majority. The voters understood the country was wasting resources – and young people – on internecine conflicts for energy that we could produce at home. The Bush years also undermined any GOP claim to fiscal responsibility.

Initially Obama allowed us to redefine American exceptionalism as something more than monomaniacal use of force and overconsumption. He spoke to our traditions of inclusiveness, adaptability and idealism. He offered the perfect vehicle because he and his story are so exceptional. Yet Obama sometimes seems more interested in serving as the apologizer rather than as commander in chief. His vision appears less American than pseudo-European.

This is not the path to success for American presidents. Whether Ronald Reagan or Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman or even Bill Clinton, a president has to be a spokesman for his country. Right now, on the world stage, Obama is looking more and more like Jimmy Carter.

I suggest these things because, for all his missteps over the past year, Barack Obama is my president and I want him to succeed. But to do so, first he needs to hit his own reset button – and the sooner the better. Unlike some, I do not believe the Obama presidency is already doomed. Presidents often grow in office: Despite his exceptionalism in other areas, let's hope that Obama proves the norm here.

This article originally appeared at Forbes.com.

Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His next book, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, will be published by Penguin Press early next year.

Official White House Photo by Pete Souza

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When the unemployment rate hit 10% for Reagan in Sept 1992 his approval rating was 42%. It went as low as 35%. When the unemployment rate went down his approval rating improved for Obama

reason for war

Some interesting responses to your article.

I concur with one rather harsh response that your premise on the foreign conflicts is off base. Why must going after a movement that hijacked and flew jets into a big chunk of our nation's financial infrastructure be considered an oil grab?

Most conservatives would LOVE to see us going after natural gas here in this country.

There is no doubt that W oversaw and helped cause a Jimmy Carter style financial meltdown. Unfortunately, Obama is no Reagan and has neither the integrity or the experience to dig us out.

It starts to look like the case can be made that this president doesn't really CARE. That is worrisome.

No Jimmy Carter

If Obama’s governing is tilting toward urban elites, it’s partly because the Republicans have cleverly positioned themselves with suburban voters and stymied the president’s hope to reach out to moderates.

I agree with Joel that Obama still has a clean shot at expanding his base. And, yes, this will alienate some of his core supporters on the left.

It will be interesting to see how this president adjusts. Unlike Jimmy Carter - who busied himself with the details of the presidency but missed the big picture - Barack has sharp political instincts, an effective leadership style and the courage, I hope, to adapt to changing conditions.

Are your taxes in good order?

I hope so, because you have dared to taunt this unfortunate Punk of a President. The chances that he may transform are puny compared to the chances he will hear of your heresy and flick some of his sycophants in your direction to deal with you.
Thanks for the good prescription, though. Best of luck.

He can, but he won't

Yes, Mr. Kotkin, Obama CAN save his presidency. You have given a superb analysis of how he could do so.

But he WON'T. His character, his fundamental pattern of behavior is set. "Stepping on the gas," "rediscovering America," and "embracing exceptionalism" is not in his spiritual and moral genes. His alienation from the essence of the American character and identity is so profound, that he cannot do other than what he is doing and will do.

The denouement is already at hand. It will take 2 or 3 or 4 years to manifest itself, but manifest itself, it will.


GWBusHitler lied, people died

The voters understood the country was wasting resources – and young people – on internecine conflicts for energy that we could produce at home

Oohhhhh! Here we go. GWBusHitler lied. People died. The war in Iraq and Afghanistan was really about OIIIILLLLLL!!

Here's a cluebat for you ... when your central premise is wrong, the results that you argue for are wrong.

Go back and start over. And this time try to be honest with us because you know, we're not morons and you can't peddle this kind of obvious nonsense to us anymore.

About as good as it's going to get

Speaking from the right, this list is about as good as a Democrat presidency is likely to get and would tear the guts out of the effort to pull independents back to the GOP in 2010-2012. It would also be a vast improvement for the country which makes me very conflicted.

A few points to cheer up the right.

1. There is a wide variety of interest groups who considered themselves in "the core" on election night 2008. A number of those groups have already woken up and found out President Obama's just not that into them. Continuing down the "Chicago way" path will lead to more group disaffection and likely turns to the GOP. Turning away from the "Chicago way" would dry up the spoils available to give to groups currently viewed as strategically important and risk losing their affection (pain always is felt more than gain is). It's a tough task to handle.

2. This is pure bipartisanship, a push. It's amazing that it needs to be said, though.

3. The rational green movement will likely go along with this and good for them. The irrationals, the luddites who are wearing green for now are likely to be disruptive and use the legal system to block development long past 2012, or even 2016. The only way to stop the blocking lawsuits is to introduce legal reform that has huge risks for Obama. Trial lawyers are about as core a constituency as any Democrat president is likely to get.

4. Urban and rural interests have always been at odds. Suburbia puts a third player in the mix with interests different from either. Were the GOP to actually have a coherent set of development politics, Obama's dilemma here would be a great opportunity.

5. This is also pure bipartisanship, a push. It's also amazing that it needs to be said.


Well done,as usual, Joel.

Far from being the politically transformative figure (aside from race), Obama is the most base of machine politics archetypes. And frankly, I don't think his hubris, and his far-left pedigree, would remotely allow any of the above suggestions to ever enter the conversation.

Here's hoping to better days ahead.