Tribes And Trust

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Only Tribes held together by a group feeling can survive in a desert.

--Ibn Khaldun, 14th century Arab historian

Time to chuck into the dustbin the cosmopolitan notions so celebrated at global conferences: a world run by wise men of the United Nations, science-driven socialists or their ostensibly more pragmatic twins, global free marketers. We are leaving the age of abstractions and entering one dominated by deep-seated ethnic, religious and cultural loyalties, some with roots from centuries and millennia ago.

The 14th century Arab historian Ibn Khaldun noted that what most holds people together is biology and shared history. These create the critical bonds of kinship and trust and a sense of common purpose that have animated every ascendant group from the days of the Greeks and Romans through the British empire, America and modern day China.

You rarely hear such notions discussed by academics, policy wonks and politicians. The well-behaved shy away from the hoary reality that people usually put the interests of their extended family ahead of others.

Yet the more we struggle to be true cosmopolitans, the more humanity expresses our fundamentally tribal nature. In the two decades since I wrote my book Tribes, in-group loyalties appear to have become stronger and more dominant.

Take the Arabs, Ibn Khaldun's own tribe, now blending ethnic nationalism and religion into a powerful, epoch-shaping mixture. Much as in the 7th or 8th centuries.

Arab Muslim tribalism will remain a powerful force, if for no other reason than their dominance of easily accessible fossil fuel resources. You see signs of a renewed, self-conscious Arab civilization in the new mosques, shining cultural edifices, mega-hotels and office spires sprouting across Kuwait, Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

With Arabs, like others, intense tribal feelings can often get out of control. Racial pride and religious fervor have chased many productive cultural minorities--Armenians, Christians, Jews--from once cosmopolitan cities like Damascus, Cairo and Beirut. The Shiite Iranians have followed a similar unfortunate course. Even some in Israel feel an uncontrollable urge to exclude, as evident in a proposal to allow ultra-orthodox Haredi rabbis to determine who is--and who isn't--a Jew.

The power of the new tribalism is particularly evident among the Chinese. Maoism might have been a radical internationalist movement, but today's Chinese are seeking to revive the great 15th century "middle kingdom" that led the world in industriousness and commerce, and briefly even "ruled the seas."

The Han are easily the world's largest tribe with a common history, language and mythology, and they constitute over 90% of China's billion-plus population. In contrast, India, the other great rising super power of our time, remains a patchwork of diverse ethnic, linguistic, caste and religious groupings.

The new Middle Kingdom, as Martin Jacques warns in his influential When China Rules the World, may well prove extraordinarily ethno-centric and self-referential. The newly powerful Han may find little use for other races except as customers and suppliers of raw materials.

Despite huge internal pressures, the Chinese are increasingly scornful of the Western business model. A good example of this change of mood: the downgrade of American and European debt by the Dagong rating agency earlier this month.

Other tribes, meanwhile, are waning: Take the Japanese. The Japanese ascendency last century was was built upon imagination, courage and military, followed by a corporate, esprit de corps.

Nothing speaks to tribal decline more than Japan's shocking birth dearth. The Japanese are running out of new blood about as quickly as any nation on earth. They also seem constitutionally incapable of making the demographic shortfall with immigrants. By 2050 more than one in three Japanese will be over 60, and the workforce 40% smaller than in 2000. The same fate may await some of their Asian cousins, but Japan's demographic time bomb will go off first.

Europeans face similarly bleak demographic prospects. Many traditional linchpins of trust--national pride, family and religion--have weakened. Lacking some sort of "group feeling," today’s Europeans seem unmotivated about creating a great future, as shown by their unwillingness to start businesses or create offspring.

The trendy concept of "European" may also need to be dismissed as archaic given the mounting rift between the frugal and productive north and the anarchic south. After all, how can you speak of one Europe when the Belgians themselves remain congenitally divided between their French and Dutch speakers.

So what other tribes, besides the Chinese, are on the upswing? Best look at the arc of rising countries across Asia--from Turkey and India to Vietnam. All appear to be entering an aggressive, expansive phase.

The new dynamic has restored one historic aspect in the role of cities as hosts for a gathering of tribes. Singapore, for example, has evolved into a modern-day Venice: a convenient, authoritatively ordered place hosting Chinese, Malays, Indians, Vietnamese and those Westerners who want in on Asia's action.

Many well off Indians, Chinese and others scour the globe for the prospect of a better life--easier admission to college or the prospect of owning a large flat or even a single family house in the suburbs. This lures them to London, New York, Los Angeles, the Bay Area or Houston. Chinese yuppies still fork out big bucks to have their babies born in California.

Tribalism has spread even to that paragon of modernism, Silicon Valley. In the end, technology often fails to trump family and cultural ties. Chinese investors push firms to set up shop with their ethnic compatriots in Taiwan, Singapore or China; the Indians for Bangalore, Chennai or Hyderabad; the Israelis for expanding Tel Aviv.

In our informational age, of course, not all trust networks are based on ethnic DNA. The Mormons have thrived as a tribe based on theology and their remarkable culture of mutual self-help. More than half of the "Saints" now live outside of America, but still Salt Lake City serves as their own ecclesiastical Mecca.

Even decidedly secular groups increasingly display tribal characteristics. Green activists are united by a passionate "group feeling" as powerful as that which mobilized Mohammed's followers; just substitute "sustainable" for holy.

Smaller tribes like investment bankers, techno-geeks or gays each share their own iconography, rites of passage, tastes in politics and culture. They cluster not only in cyberspace, but in the same neighborhoods, conferences and resorts, and increasingly intermarry.

These secular tribes often insist they, unlike ethnic groups, are motivated by a more enlightened spirit of science, global consciousness or individual self-awareness. But don't be taken in by such protestations. Nothing could be more tribal.

This article originally appeared at Forbes.com.

Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in February, 2010.

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Nice post! This is a very

Nice post! This is a very nice blog that I will definitively come back to more times this year! Thanks for informative post.
adesivos de unhas revenda

Globalism's wave has crashed

on the beach, and even if globalism's tide is still high, the wave has receded for the moment. The results are plain to see, and if localism is a more subtle and polite form of tribalism, one can plainly see its resurgence in these times of economic transition.

This article, with its passion and identification of a hot-button, sadly sparked irrational comments and irrelevant movie references rather than meaningful analysis. The effects of tribalism - divisiveness at home, squabbling and wars exploiting tribalism abroad - are more clearly explainable with Kotkin's thesis than without. Sure, he left out America, because our country is currently a pretty embarrassing story of political tribalism gone way bad! No one needs to read more about our own sad descent.

What is needed at this point is meaningful insight into the global cultural phenomenon, because we have a chance to bifurcate our pathway away from its juggernaut towards feudalism. Currently, however, we seem to be operating in a domain of ignorance and surprise, hardly conducive to rational decisionmaking.

Richard Reep, M. Arch.
Winter Park, FL

Just too many shortcuts here !

Ron Lesthaeghe ( no co-authors !)
Em.Prof. VU Brussels

I can live with the central point of the article that ethnic allegiance is still a powerful force in the postmodern world. But the article tends to fall back on incredible stereotypes rather than on a careful consideration of facts.
Take the use of fertility rates as an indicator of "vitality". Low Japanese and European fertility is taken as a sign of decline of these civilizations, and this is contrasted with Han vitality. Only, many Western and Northern European populations have fertility rates well above that of China, and also the Japanese fertility rate is higher than that of the levels in major Chinese urban areas, higher than S. Korean, Hong Kong and Singapore fertility ! Good indicator that is !
In the Arab or Muslim world, Tunisia has sub-replacement fertility below 2 children, but Jemen is still at 6 children per woman. Not really a sign of tribal homogeneity !
Another shortcut : northern European frugality versus southern anarchy (sic). Imagine a European writing about the US and using such terms to contrast Oregon with Kentucky, or Massachusetts with Oklahoma or Georgia.
Another striking trait of the article: the US is conveniently left out altogether. Yet wouldn't there be instances of rampant tribalism in the US ? I cannot think of any better replicum of Islamic tribalism than Evangelical tribalism. There is probably a flaw in this comparison : Islam is just much more heterogeneous than the US Bible Tribe. Another case: I've known the US ever since the late 1960s. Compared to that time, I have never heard more anti-Hispanic and anti-black talk than after the election of President Obama. There was even a certain Lou who for years aired white tribalist talk against the Hispanics and against China on CNN without anyone among the white tribe raising any objections. Staggering.

I can also see that it was US frugality that caused the worldwide banking crisis ! Indeed, few Americans know that they had the lowest savings rate in the OECD ever since the 1970s.

So please stop lecturing others with substandard journalism.

And since also Belgium is mentioned, I would like to remind the author that this "congenital division" (sic) has NEVER resulted in any bloodshed whatsoever. And that ever since the nation came into existence since 1830. (Maybe a few black eyes, but that's all). I challenge the author to come up with a list of nations with a similar record for the last 180 years. The US won't be among them, that's for sure.

Conclusion: if there is tribalism and if it is unavoidable, then please pray the Lord that it will be of the Belgian type.

Care to forward this to Forbes magazine too ?
PS: I thought this was a serious and academically sound site. I'm VERY disappointed.

Ron J. Lesthaeghe

Tribes and Trust

I suspect the critics of this piece are overlooking that the nature of tribalism has changed - like everything else. I wrote an essay on Tribal Marketing for the Quest organisation's Annual General Meeting in Florida back in 1995

You can read it here.

http://www.rmastudies.org.nz/issues/70-tribal-science/409-tribal-quest

I talk about the Three faces of tribalism, and introduce the third and last face with these words

THIS THIRD FACE of tribalism reflects international or global values which appear to be in direct conflict with those of traditional tribes such as the Standing Rock Sioux. These new tribes are spread all around the world and take delight in their freedom from connections to local culture, language, ethnicity or place. Their members are enthusiastic participants in a world shaped largely by the media, new technology and modern communications. Computer hackers are a tribe. War correspondents are a tribe. Internet users are a tribe - or a tribe of a thousand sub-tribes. Football hooligans are a tribe. Cosmologists are a tribe. Rappers are a tribe. Modern teenagers are a tribe. Surfers are a tribe. (Remember The Endless Summer in which surfers followed the sun and surf all around the world?)

Read on if you are interested. For my sins this paper introduced the notion of Passion to the marketing departments of some of the major companies of the world.

Owen McShane, Kaiwaka, New Zealand.
Director, Centre for Resource Management Studies.
http://www.rmastudies.org.nz/

Why one should/should not pay attention to crap that is ancient

"Only Tribes held together by a group feeling can survive in a desert."

Tribes. The problem.
OK, I know that it is over simplification, but you must see (again) the scene in Lawrence of Arabia with General Allenby in Damascus.

"Take the Arabs, Ibn Khaldun's own tribe".
I doubt that his "tribe" was the "Arabs". My guess is for much finer granularity. And, that is problem. Ask Nassar and Qadaffi how their Arabic Empires are doing.

Dave Barnes
+1.303.744.9024
WebEnhancement Services Worldwide

Protocols of the Elders of Jotkin

This analysis leans heavily on old statistics and demography and ignores the stunning, albeit messy, processes of assimilation going on world wide, processes Kotkin used to celebrate--before he went to the extreme Breitbart-ian right.
It is truly amazing to hear a sophisto like Joel break the world into the Manichean---his celebrated tribes versus "a world run by wise men of the United Nations, science-driven socialists or their ostensibly more pragmatic twins, global free marketers."
Henry Ford could not have said it better.