Fifty Years of Population Change in the US: 1960-2010

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A new census leads us to ask how population has changed, but usually discussion is focused on changes since the last census. But even more interesting is to appreciate the vaster changes over a greater sweep of time, for example: the fifty years since 1960, when the United States had 179 million people, toward the end of the post-war Baby Boom.

Over this fifty year period, the country experienced a tremendous economic expansion and metropolitan growth. The attatched maps and charts display these changes, both in the greatest absolute and relative (percentage) losses and gains. We can then assess areas and regions that changed the most – or the least – and how this pattern differs from the most recent decade.

Looking at both the maps and the tables, high absolute losses are in large northeastern metropolitan counties, plus, because of Katrina, Orleans (New Orleans).  Next most prominent in terms of losses are mining and small industrial counties in Appalachia as well as the largely rural Black majority counties in the Mississippi delta (Arkansas and Mississippi). Far more widespread in terms of space are small absolutely but often high percentage losses across the Great Plains, the rural small town heartland of the country. Losses do extend to the west, in a few mining and farming counties, as in MT, ID, OR and WA, as well as a few Native American reservation areas. 

From Table 1 (below), 12 counties lost more than 100,000 people since 1960, most in the northeastern historic urban industrial core, including two New York City boroughs. The bigger loser by far, however, was Wayne (Detroit) . Next were Philadelphia, which lost 477,000 and St. Louis, falling 57 percent from 750,000 to 319,000.   Among non-metropolitan counties, the largest absolute losses were in West Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania (mining), and Arkansas and Mississippi (high Black population).

High relative losses (table 2) of over 50 percent beset 69 counties, all non-metropolitan   except one: St Louis. States with the greatest number of declining counties included North Dakota, 19; Texas, 16; South Dakota, 6, Kansas, Montana and Nebraska, 4; Arkansas, 3; and Missouri, 2. Most were in the Plains states. It is also clear that a high proportion of counties – both metropolitan and non metropolitan – with high Black populations have experienced losses, a sad commentary on disinvestment in areas with high African-American shares.

In contrast, the pattern of gains is more complex.  Overwhelmingly, the highest absolute amounts (table 3) – and often percentage gains (table 4) – are in mostly larger metropolitan complexes. For the largest areas, the core counties often had lesser rates of growth, even if the absolute amounts were very large (e.g., Los Angeles, Cook, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston). In contrast the highest rates of growth, often over 400 percent, took place in their satellite or suburban counties. Most obvious are greater Los Angeles and San Francisco, Denver, the large Texas metropolitan areas, Minneapolis, Chicago-Milwaukee, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Seattle, Portland and Washington, DC.  More recent, less suburban (at least in terms of jurisdiction) dominated areas, often in the Sunbelt, include especially Maricopa (Phoenix), Las Vegas, Salt Lake, Nashville, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Richmond.

This leaves perhaps the two most spectacular (along with California, obviously: the northeastern Megalopolis and Florida. Florida clearly has the highest overall rate of change over this period. The northeastern Megalopolis is highly varied, but overall now spreading from Richmond, Virginia to Portland, Maine. It has developed into an astounding agglomeration of growth, with the locus of fastest absolute as well as percentage growth in its suburban and exurban portions.

Growth was also often substantial in non-metropolitan or now small metropolitan areas in many parts of the country. An especially remarkable belt of growth – including small towns – extends from Memphis across Tennessee and North Carolina. Another span of significant growth – despite decline or slower growth in the recent past – lies in the Midwest (Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota). Belts of growth follow the I-5 corridor from California to Canada, the corridor from Tulsa through Fayetteville and Springfield to St Louis, and the I95 coastal south Atlantic strip.

Sixteen counties gained a million or more: Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino, a southwestern megalopolis; Santa Clara (San Jose); Harris (Houston); Dallas and Fort Worth (Tarrant) and Bexar (San Antonio) in Texas; Miami, Ft. Lauderdale (Broward) and Palm Beach, Florida; Clark (Las Vegas); King (Seattle); and Maricopa (Phoenix).

Finally the counties which grew at the fastest rate over the 50 years include some 118 that grew by 400 percent or more, and 27 that expanded more than ten-fold. States with the most such counties (400 to 1000 % ) include Florida, 15; Georgia, 11; Colorado, 8; Texas, 6; Virginia 6; California, 4; AZ,MN, MO, NC, and NV, 3 each; MD, NM, OR, TN, WY, 2 each; with 1 each in AL, AR, AK, IL, IN, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, PA,  SC, UT and WA. Among the over 1000 percent growth, AK and AZ, 1; CO, 3; FL, 8; GA, 4; NV, 2; TX, 6; UT, 1; and VA, 1. 

Types of counties with over 400 percent growth include 3 core metropolitan, 69 suburban, 44 environmental, and 2 others, often resource development. The fastest growth county was Douglas in suburban Denver, followed by environmentally attractive Mohave, AZ, and Flagler and Collier, FL, followed by Dallas suburb, Collin, and Atlanta suburb Gwinnett.

Conclusion
People continue to come to the US in large numbers, and people move from place to place in remarkable numbers.  Don’t count on the current pattern of population to remain very stable, just as the last fifty years have not been.  For example, while the northeastern “Rustbelt” seems in trouble, it is a region of vast plant capacity, superior universities, and a high quality labor force. A reaction to the high cost of excessive outsourcing, and even  some shifts from the “new South” could bring about a surprising restoration.






Table 1: Largest Absolute Losses, 1960-2010
Name
1900
1960
2000
2010
Change 1960-2010
Percent Change, 1960-2010
MI Wayne County 348,793 2,666,297 2,061,162 1,820,584 -845,713 -31.7%
PA Philadelphia County 1,293,697 2,002,512 1,517,550 1,526,006 -476,506 -23.8%
MO St. Louis city 575,238 750,026 348,189 319,294 -430,732 -57.4%
PA Allegheny County 775,058 1,628,587 1,281,666 1,223,348 -405,239 -24.9%
OH Cuyahoga County 439,120 1,647,895 1,393,978 1,280,122 -367,773 -22.3%
MD Baltimore city 508,957 939,024 651,154 620,961 -318,063 -33.9%
LA Orleans Parish 287,104 627,525 484,674 343,829 -283,696 -45.2%
DC District of Columbia 278,718 763,956 572,059 601,723 -162,233 -21.2%
NY Erie County 433,686 1,064,688 950,265 919,040 -145,648 -13.7%
NJ Essex County 359,053 923,545 793,633 783,969 -139,576 -15.1%
NY Kings County 1,166,582 2,627,319 2,465,326 2,504,700 -122,619 -4.7%
NY New York County 2,050,600 1,698,281 1,537,195 1,585,873 -112,408 -6.6%
WI Milwaukee County 330,017 1,036,041 940,164 947,735 -88,306 -8.5%
MA Suffolk County 611,417 791,329 689,807 722,023 -69,306 -8.8%
VA Norfolk city 46,624 305,872 234,403 242,803 -63,069 -20.6%
OH Hamilton County 409,479 864,121 845,303 802,374 -61,747 -7.1%
OH Mahoning County 70,134 300,480 257,555 238,823 -61,657 -20.5%
WV Kanawha County 54,696 252,925 200,073 193,063 -59,862 -23.7%
PA Cambria County 104,837 203,283 152,598 143,679 -59,604 -29.3%
Table 2: Greatest Relative Losses 1960-2010
Name
1900
1960
2000
2010
Change 1960-2010
Percent Change, 1960-2010
ND Sheridan County - 4,350 1,710 1,321 -3,029 -69.6%
WV McDowell County 18,747 71,359 27,329 22,113 -49,246 -69.0%
HI Kalawao County 1,177 279 147 90 -189 -67.7%
ND Burke County - 5,886 2,242 1,968 -3,918 -66.6%
TX Cottle County 1,002 4,207 1,904 1,505 -2,702 -64.2%
TX Loving County 33 226 67 82 -144 -63.7%
ND Logan County 1,625 5,369 2,308 1,990 -3,379 -62.9%
NM Harding County - 1,874 810 695 -1,179 -62.9%
ND Divide County - 5,566 2,283 2,071 -3,495 -62.8%
TX Terrell County - 2,600 1,081 984 -1,616 -62.2%
CO La Plata County 7,016 19,225 43,941 7,310 -11,915 -62.0%
ND Grant County - 6,248 2,841 2,394 -3,854 -61.7%
ND Slope County - 1,893 767 727 -1,166 -61.6%
MS Quitman County 5,435 21,019 10,117 8,223 -12,796 -60.9%
ND Hettinger County - 6,317 2,715 2,477 -3,840 -60.8%
MS Issaquena County 10,400 3,576 2,274 1,406 -2,170 -60.7%
ND Cavalier County 12,580 10,064 4,831 3,993 -6,071 -60.3%
ND Towner County 6,491 5,624 2,876 2,246 -3,378 -60.1%
SD Campbell County 4,527 3,531 1,782 1,466 -2,065 -58.5%
ND Steele County 5,888 4,719 2,258 1,975 -2,744 -58.1%
ND McIntosh County 4,818 6,702 3,390 2,809 -3,893 -58.1%
ND Emmons County 4,349 8,462 4,331 3,550 -4,912 -58.0%
TX Motley County 1,257 2,870 1,426 1,210 -1,660 -57.8%
SD McPherson County 6,327 5,821 2,904 2,459 -3,362 -57.8%
MO St. Louis city 575,238 750,026 348,189 319,294 -430,732 -57.4%
Table 3: Largest Absolute Gains, 1960-2010
Name
1900
1960
2000
2010
Change 1960-2010
Percent Change, 1960-2010
CA Los Angeles County 170,298 6,038,771 9,519,338 9,818,605 3,779,834 63%
AZ Maricopa County 20,457 663,510 3,072,149 3,817,117 3,153,607 475%
TX Harris County 63,786 1,243,158 3,400,578 4,092,459 2,849,301 229%
CA Orange County 19,696 703,925 2,846,289 3,010,232 2,306,307 328%
CA San Diego County 35,090 1,033,011 2,813,833 3,095,313 2,062,302 200%
CA Riverside County 17,897 306,191 1,545,387 2,189,641 1,883,450 615%
NV Clark County - 127,016 1,375,765 1,951,269 1,824,253 1436%
FL Dade County 4,955 935,047 2,253,362 2,496,435 1,561,388 167%
CA San Bernardino County 27,929 503,591 1,709,434 2,035,210 1,531,619 304%
TX Dallas County 82,726 951,527 2,218,899 2,368,139 1,416,612 149%
FL Broward County - 333,946 1,623,018 1,748,066 1,414,120 423%
TX Tarrant County 52,376 538,495 1,446,219 1,809,034 1,270,539 236%
CA Santa Clara County 60,216 642,315 1,682,585 1,781,642 1,139,327 177%
FL Palm Beach County - 228,106 1,131,184 1,320,134 1,092,028 479%
TX Bexar County 69,422 687,151 1,392,931 1,714,773 1,027,622 150%
WA King County 110,053 935,014 1,737,034 1,931,249 996,235 107%
CA Sacramento County 45,915 502,778 1,223,499 1,418,788 916,010 182%
FL Orange County 11,374 263,540 896,344 1,145,956 882,416 335%
FL Hillsborough County 36,013 397,788 998,948 1,229,226 831,438 209%
NY Suffolk County 77,582 666,784 1,419,369 1,493,350 826,566 124%
TX Travis County 47,386 212,136 812,280 1,024,266 812,130 383%
VA Fairfax County 18,580 275,002 969,749 1,081,726 806,724 293%
GA Gwinnett County 25,585 43,541 588,448 805,321 761,780 1750%
TX Collin County 50,087 41,247 491,675 782,341 741,094 1797%
NC Wake County 54,626 169,082 627,846 900,993 731,911 433%
AZ Pima County 14,689 265,660 843,746 980,263 714,603 269%
NC Mecklenburg County 55,268 272,111 695,454 919,628 647,517 238%
UT Salt Lake County 77,725 383,035 898,387 1,029,655 646,620 169%
Table 4: Largest Relative Gains, 1960-2010
Name
1900
1960
2000
2010
Change 1960-2010
Percent Change, 1960-2010
CO Douglas County 3,120 4,816 175,766 285,465 280,649 5827%
AZ Mohave County 3,426 7,736 155,032 200,186 192,450 2488%
FL Flagler County - 4,566 49,832 95,696 91,130 1996%
FL Collier County - 15,753 251,377 321,520 305,767 1941%
TX Collin County 50,087 41,247 491,675 782,341 741,094 1797%
GA Gwinnett County 25,585 43,541 588,448 805,321 761,780 1750%
AK Matanuska-Susitna Borough - 5,188 59,322 88,995 83,807 1615%
TX Montgomery County 17,067 26,839 293,768 455,746 428,907 1598%
FL Hernando County 3,638 11,205 130,802 172,778 161,573 1442%
NV Clark County - 127,016 1,375,765 1,951,269 1,824,253 1436%
FL Citrus County 5,391 9,268 118,085 141,236 131,968 1424%
TX Fort Bend County 16,538 40,527 354,452 585,375 544,848 1344%
GA Forsyth County 11,550 12,170 98,407 175,511 163,341 1342%
FL Osceola County 3,444 19,029 172,493 268,685 249,656 1312%
TX Denton County 28,318 47,432 432,976 662,614 615,182 1297%
CO Summit County 2,744 2,073 23,548 27,994 25,921 1250%
NV Douglas County 1,534 3,481 41,259 46,997 43,516 1250%
UT Washington County 4,612 10,271 90,354 138,115 127,844 1245%
TX Rockwall County 8,531 5,878 43,080 78,337 72,459 1233%
GA Fayette County 10,114 8,199 91,263 106,567 98,368 1200%
VA Loudoun County 21,948 24,549 169,599 312,311 287,762 1172%
FL Charlotte County - 12,594 141,627 159,978 147,384 1170%
FL Pasco County 6,054 36,785 344,765 464,697 427,912 1163%
TX Williamson County 38,072 35,044 249,967 422,679 387,635 1106%
GA Henry County 18,602 17,619 119,341 203,922 186,303 1057%
FL Lee County 3,071 54,539 440,888 618,754 564,215 1035%

Richard Morrill is Professor Emeritus of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Washington. His research interests include: political geography (voting behavior, redistricting, local governance), population/demography/settlement/migration, urban geography and planning, urban transportation (i.e., old fashioned generalist).



















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Key

Richard

I'm a little confused about the key for Absolute Change. How do you distinguish the negatives from the positives?

Ian Abley
www.audacity.org

Jean Gottmann's insight

Richard

You appear to accept as true Jean Gottmann's argument from 1961 that the North Eastern Seaboard of the US was already a Megalopolis. I think you are right to do so.

Do you see other megalopoli in the US developing since 1960?

Where can I read more of your work?

Peter Hall has long denied that there is a megalopolis across the South East of England, radiating out from and orbiting around Greater London, and Inner London at it's core. He denies this despite the evidence of the 2001 census, which after the 2011 census is digested will show how "London" is no longer contained by the conventional administrative boundaries, even though the Green Belt persists as an attempt to resist megalopolitan sprawl.

Do you have any research on Britain?

Ian Abley
www.audacity.org

"Land" is a factor of production, remember?

".....while the northeastern “Rustbelt” seems in trouble, it is a region of vast plant capacity, superior universities, and a high quality labor force. A reaction to the high cost of excessive outsourcing, and even some shifts from the “new South” could bring about a surprising restoration....."

I keep trying to point out on forums all over the world, that low land prices are an advantage and high land prices are a disadvantage, to the economy concerned. I fully agree that the rustbelt will rebound economically, as long as the cities concerned don't start to go in for prescriptive urban planning.

Some parts of Britain have massively high long term unemployment AND prescriptive planning and unaffordable land prices which act as a barrier to any recovery happening.

It is also important that the unions learn their lesson about gouging an important industry to death.

Conflation

Phil

You conflate the post-1947 planning system with the efforts of unionised labour.

The post-1947 planning system may annoy employers wanting cheap land, just as trade unions (when they do not compromise and collapse) annoy employers by insisting on wage rates and conditions.

However the post-1947 planning system was (and remains) a containment of the workforce, denying the majority access to cheap land on which to live at lower costs. Employers and government sought to contain the workforce, directing post war reconstruction to the old centres or to the new towns where production was distributed. That operated up to the 1960s, from which point Britain's economy went into decline.

Employers in Britain have long been adept at relocating to parts of the world where they can buy the factors of production, like land and labour, more cheaply. They have never been willing to get rid of the post-1947 planning system that contained their own workforce.

Now too, much of British capital (£1.2 trillion) is tied up in lending to the contained workforce who have come to rely on mortgage financed owner occupation for their housing. Employers and government have long ago given up on the idea that they should provide cheap housing for rent to the workforce.

So don't conflate the self-interest of the workforce in trade unionism (as painful but ineffective as it has been) with the containment of the workforce through a planning system than no employer's organisation or government (even this Coalition) will contemplate doing without.

British capitalism has many interests that are protected by the post-1947 planning system.

It is not regulation per-se that matters, but whose interests are being served that are important. Far better to have the Factory Acts than not...

Ian Abley
www.audacity.org