COVID-19 pandemic

Feudal Future Podcast: The Impact of the Pandemic

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Mon, 27 Sep 2021 18:41:49 -0400

On this episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky are joined by Ross Elliott, Chairman of the Urban Land Institute of Australia, and Dr. Aaron Kheriaty, Professor of Psychiatry at UC Irvine. This show covers the psychological impact of COVID-19 and how governments are managing it.

[3:15] The Nudge Unit

[8:25] Australia & Covid

[24:45] How to handle vaccines

[39:02] What should policy makers do now

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About our episode guests:

Ross Elliott is the co-founder of Suburban Futures (formerly The Suburban Alliance). He has 30 years’ experience in the property and urban development industry, including a number of national leadership roles for the Property Council of Australia as its Executive Director, then Chief Operating Officer and later as National Executive Director for the Residential Development Council. In this time he pioneered a number of policy initiatives for the industry on urban growth and cities policies for Australia. He has both authored and edited a number of monographs on urban development policy, housing and cities policies for Australia. Ross was also founding CEO of Brisbane Marketing, winning an International Downtown Association’s (USA) award for City Marketing in 2003. A frequent speaker, author and commentator on urban development policy, he was in 2016 invited to be international keynote speaker for the American Planning Association’s Utah conference and in 2017 was published in a global joint MIT/Chapman University project “Infinite Suburbia.”

Aaron Kheriaty is Professor of Psychiatry at UCI School of Medicine and Director of the Medical Ethics Program at UCI Health. He serves as chairman of the medical ethics committees at UCI Hospital and at the CA Department of State Hospitals. Dr. Kheriaty graduated from the University of Notre Dame in philosophy and pre-medical sciences, earned his MD degree from Georgetown University, and completed residency training in psychiatry at UCI. He has authored books and articles for professional and lay audiences on bioethics, social science, psychiatry, and religion. His work has been published in the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, Public Discourse, and First Things; he has conducted print, radio, and television interviews on bioethics topics with The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, CNN, Fox, and NPR. On matters of public policy and healthcare he has addressed the California Medical Association and has testified before the California Senate Health Committee.

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Urban Density and Covid Death Rates: Update Through April 2021

Wendell Cox — Mon, 03 May 2021 12:35:37 -0400

The latest death rates as of April 30, 2021 from COVID-19 are displayed by US county urban density in Figure 1. This analysis is based on data reported by usafacts.org.

Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 1,000 to 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have the low to medium urban population densities characteristic suburban areas and account for 81% of the nation’s population (267 million out of a total population of 328 million).

All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Figure 3 illustrates the fatality rates by urban population density category.

Despite considerable press coverage of fatality rates in rural areas, the fully rural counties (without urban areas), death rate remains 14% above the national average, virtually the same as at the end of 2020.

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities with their widespread overcrowding, especially in insufficiently ventilated, overcrowded enclosures, such as in offices, elevators, transit, retail establishments and housing. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater. Economic activity in the nation’s largest and densest urban cores (central business districts) is a small fraction of normal, as a result of strict lockdowns.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston, a Senior Fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

2020 Year End Summary: Urban Density and COVID Death Rates

Wendell Cox — Sun, 03 Jan 2021 18:42:47 -0500

The latest death rates from COVID-19 are displayed by county urban density in Figure 1. Death rates remain at or below the national death rate in counties with urban densities of 5,000 per square mile or below (Figure 2). These counties have low to medium urban population densities characteristic of suburban and exurban areas and account for 85% of the nation’s population (279 million out of a total population of 328 million). All categories of counties with urban densities exceeding 5,000 per square mile have more than their population proportionate share of COVID-19 deaths. Counties without urbanization (fully rural counties) also have higher proportional death rates (Figure 3).

Higher COVID-19 death rates are associated with higher urban densities because of the overcrowding that often occurs in such environments. This leads to higher exposure densities, because the intensity and duration of risky contacts is likely to be greater.

Similar relationships are evident elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom and Japan.

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Feudal Future Podcast, with John Russo

Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky — Wed, 28 Oct 2020 22:59:30 -0400

On today's episode of Feudal Future hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview John Russo, co-author of Steel Town USA and a visiting scholar at Georgetown University. John has spent most of his academic career at Youngstown State University in Ohio, and he has spent much time cataloguing the plight of the middle class and working class in the US.

As the conversation begins, John talks about the political situation in Ohio. While Donald Trump polled well in Ohio in 2016, with the 2020 presidential election right around the corner, John notes that Trump is now in trouble in Ohio. He explains from his observations in Youngstown how this change occurred, specifically citing the development of disillusionment with Trump. John also comments on demographics in Ohio, an article he wrote on Trump’s prospects in the state, Operation Grant, schism within the Republican party, and party polarization.

Next, focus shifts to issues surrounding the election itself. John does not offer a concrete guess as to who will win, but comments that the election is not so much about Trump and Biden as it is about the American people and their future. The election marks a significant generational shift as a new wave of young voters steps up, and John explains how this generation differs from generations that preceded it. He shares about potential conflict in the Democratic party, the idea of a “political parabola,” and realities of fear among voters.

Finally, the conversation turns to thoughts on the future, focusing first on the top three policy initiatives of the prospective Biden administration before turning to the future of capitalism, which John imagines will look more like the system established in China. As the episode moves toward a close, Joel, Marshall, and John talk about issues in the technology sphere, the last chance for the democratic party, labor reform, and more!

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Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

COVID Deaths & High Urban Population Densities (October 5 Update)

Wendell Cox — Tue, 06 Oct 2020 15:08:23 -0400

The Figures below provide an update through October 5, 2020 to the relationship between county urban densities and COVID-19 death rates. The data continues to show a strong association between higher urban densities and death rates. The analysis approach and method are described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.” See: Figure 1: “COVID-19 Death Rates by County Urban Density Category” and Figure 2: “Deaths Proportionate to Population” and Figure 3: “COVID-19 Death Rates by Urban Density.”

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.
Mayor Tom Bradley appointed him to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission (1977-1985) and Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appointed him to the Amtrak Reform Council, to complete the unexpired term of New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman (1999-2002). He is author of War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life and Toward More Prosperous Cities: A Framing Essay on Urban Areas, Transport, Planning and the Dimensions of Sustainability.

Feudal Future Podcast — Making Sense Of Urban Density, Death Rates & Dispersion With Wendell Cox

Charlie Stephens — Fri, 21 Aug 2020 14:57:50 -0400

In this episode of the Feudal Future podcast, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview one of their longtime collaborators, Wendell Cox. He is an expert in urban policy, focusing much of his work on demographics and transportation, and he joins Joel and Marshall for a conversation on the COVID-19 pandemic, death rates, and public policy.

The first topic of the conversation is a chart Wendell explains correlating death rates from COVID-19 and urban density rates. Wendell describes the significance of urban density, specifically as it contrasts with county density. Urban density is associated with overcrowding in close spaces, and highlights the need not only for social distancing, but also for good ventilation. The group considers the possible reasons behind a seemingly low death rate in Manhattan, the issue of dense housing, and how various parts of California fare on the chart.

Next, the group considers implications of the issues of density and death represented by Wendell’s chart. They think about possible policy changes to come, and Wendell argues that we need to avoid full lockdown as we move forward in order to avoid bringing more ruin to the economy. Rather than locking down, we ought to specify our problem areas and target them. Further, rather than making the politically correct move of denying the problem of density, we need to look our situation in the face, figure out what’s happening, and take action to address it.

The group talks through what changes may be needed in the days ahead. There are issues to address with regard to building codes and transit systems. There are also major questions to answer about how to move cities - such as the majorly impacted city of New York - toward recovery. Wendell instructs Marshall and Joel in how to think about the example of Asian cities, speaks with them about how various cities in the US are faring now and how they may move forward, and emphasizes the need for cities to consider where people are going.

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Learn about Wendell Cox.
Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.
Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.
Learn more about Joel Kotkin.
Join the Beyond Feudalism Facebook group.
Read the Beyond Feudalism report.
Leran about Joel's book, The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.

COVID Deaths & High Urban Population Densities (August 7 Update)

Wendell Cox — Mon, 10 Aug 2020 11:39:41 -0400

The Figures below provide an update through August 7, 2020 to the relationship between county urban densities and COVID-19 death rates. The data continues to show a strong association between higher urban densities and death rates. The analysis approach and method are described in “Perspective: US Covid-19 Deaths and Urban Population Density.” See: Figure 1: “COVID-19 Death Rates by County Urban Density Category” and Figure 2: “Deaths Proportionate to Population” and Figure 3: “COVID-19 Death Rates by Urban Density.”

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international public policy firm located in the St. Louis metropolitan area. He is a founding senior fellow at the Urban Reform Institute, Houston and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in Orange, California. He has served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers in Paris. His principal interests are economics, poverty alleviation, demographics, urban policy and transport. He is co-author of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey and author of Demographia World Urban Areas.

Feudal Future Podcast — Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All with Mike Shellenberger

Charlie Stephens — Wed, 05 Aug 2020 18:52:55 -0400

In this episode of the Feudal Future podcast, hosts Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky interview Mike Shellenberger, author of Apocalypse Never. Many of Mike’s views overlap with those of Joel and Marshall, and his role as an influential writer of social critique make him an insightful contributor to this conversation about issues in California, the media, and beyond.

The first topic of the conversation is Mike’s work, which will soon include a book dealing with the homeless crisis in San Francisco. This segues into broader conversation about problems in the social and political fabric of California, and Mike comments on the need to understand values and a vision for California, ways in which such things as environmentalism and housing are mishandled, the objectionable morality of how mental illness and drug addiction are managed in the state, and his vision of the sort of governor and political revolution necessary to effect the change California requires.

Next, the group turns to the subject of the mainstream media, which attempts to control popular thought and at times operates dishonestly. Mike explains his experiences with censorship, which testify to regulation of speech and information in ways that uphold political agendas at the expense of truth. Being censored is a trying experience, but Mike has noticed that his persistence in truth-telling has actually bolstered his following. Mike and his hosts consider dealing with bullies, the project of “de-civilization,” and Maoist ideology in the US.

The ideology behind the ruling social and political trends in the US is pushed by the oligarchs of the day. The group considers the rationale behind this phenomenon, the reality of an “apocalyptic mindset,” the need for love to combat hate, and the value of an ad absurdum suggestion to force people to face reality. Finally, Joel and Marshall ask Mike about what he imagines the beginning of a Biden presidential administration to look like. His answer, put simply? Chaos. But a chaos presenting hope and opportunity.

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Learn about Mike Shellenberger and his book, Apocalypse Never.

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Learn more about the Feudal Future podcast.

Learn more about Marshall Toplansky.

Learn more about Joel Kotkin.