NewGeography.com blogs

Australia's High-Rise Apartment Crash Turns Apocalyptic

Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its dwelling approvals data for November, which revealed that dwelling approvals nationally have crashed by 35% in trend terms from the March 2015 peak, driven by a mammoth 52% decline in unit and apartment approvals.

Today, I want to focus on the high-rise apartment segment, which is driving the bust and is also the subject of deep concerns around quality.

The next chart shows the picture at the national level in annual terms, which shows that high-rise apartment approvals have crashed by 53% since peaking in October 2015:

As shown above, there were 36,691 high-rise apartments approved across the nation in the year to October 2019, well down from the peak of 78,089 in the year to October 2015.

Detached house and townhouse approvals are also falling swiftly; albeit at a slower rate.

Below are the same charts at the state and territory level:

The high - rise apartment approvals crash has been driven by NSW (-57%), VIC (-57%) and QLD (-70%), which have all fallen massively from peak. ACT’s high-rise approvals have also crashed (-40%).

The below chart shows the high-rise bust across the major markets:

The crash is broad-based, nasty and ongoing. It is the smoking gun of RBA panic.

10 Questions on Public Corruption for LA’s “Progressive” Mayor

Anyone who needed a poll by the LA Times and LA Business Council Institute to tell them that overwhelming numbers of Angelenos consider homelessness the city’s biggest problem hasn’t been paying attention for quite a while.

And anyone who thinks homelessness in LA can be addressed without confronting public corruption overlooks a problem that tears the fabric of the city.

The odor of corruption hangs over a deal at a warehouse at 1426 S.Paloma Street on the industrial edge of Downtown LA. The City Council and Mayor Eric Garcetti approved a lease that requires $35,000 a month in rent for space to be converted into a 115-bed homeless shelter there. They’ve also agreed to pay a nonprofit $4 million a year to run the shelter.

The numbers involved are relatively small compared to the $1.2 billion voters approved under Prop HHH three years ago to address the crisis.

You can look here to see why they nevertheless indicate the potential for much bigger problems.

And you can consider these 10 questions, which Garcetti has been unable or unwilling to answer for weeks and months while the shelter has yet to open even as the city pays $35,000 a month to the landlord:

  1. Why isn't there a homeless shelter in operation at 1426 S. Paloma Street?
  2. What sort of market analysis was done on the lease
  3. Do plans still call for the development of a shelter at the property
  4. If so, when is it expected to open?
  5. Are there any concerns that the landlord of the property has been involved in cases of money laundering and counterfeiting in the past?
  6. How was Home at Last CDC chosen as the operator of the homeless shelter?
  7. How was the $4 million annual value of Home at Last CDC’s services determined?
  8. Are there any concerns that Home at Last CDC has recently demonstrated a lack of organizational capacity and transparency about its operations?
  9. Are there concerns that city documents indicate plans for 60 fulltime employees to staff a 115-bed facility?
  10. Has the city surveyed industry standards on staffing levels for emergency shelters?

These shouldn’t be tough questions for a mayor with hundreds of public employees on his staff, including dozens dedicated to communications and homelessness programs.

They are offered without apology because the people of anyrepresentative democracy has a right to know – and because LA will never meet the challenge of homelessness unless we start to talk about public corruption.

Jerry Sullivan is founder and chief columnist for SullivanSaysSoCal.com @SullivanSaysSC

Talent Attraction Scorecard

The folks at EMSI, a labor market analytics firm, have issued their latest Talent Attraction Scorecard. They look at, among other things, the places that are gaining the most skilled workers. Obviously their ranking heavily correlate with population growth. What I found most interesting is their specific look at smaller counties and even “micro-counties” with a population of less than 5,000. Plenty of names you might not know but are worth checking out.

Also, I couldn’t resist posting the “This City Is Making a Comeback” bingo game that was circulating on the internet recently. Pretty hilarious. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with having most of these things. In fact, they are great to have. But still a fun meme.

This post first appeared on aaronrenn.com.

Announcing Heartland Forward — An Institute for Economic Renewal

Heartland Forward is a first-of-its-kind "think and do" tank committed to advancing economic performance in the center of the United States.

President and CEO of Heartland Forward Ross DeVol, states: "Throughout my decades of research experience, I've observed that national research and policy discussions too often overlook the center of the country, especially its small cities and rural areas. The Heartland region faces more economic challenges than the coasts, but it also holds immense potential, and that's why I felt so strongly about launching an organization like Heartland Forward."

You can learn more about the organization at www.heartlandforward.org

UK High-Speed Rail Blowout: Costs Triple

London’s Daily Telegraph reported on September 21 that the cost of HS-3, the high-speed rail line from London’s Euston Station to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds is now expected to cost £106.4 Billion. The Telegraph notes that this cost is double the amount maintained by former Prime Minister Theresa May’s government until her recent resignation. In fact, the cost is more than three times the £33 billion announced in 2010, which is indicated in a detailed times in the Telegraph article.