Where Do We Still Make Stuff in America?

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The deindustrialization of the United States has been widely considered to be a major force in shaping the economy. It’s one thing to measure where decline has been greatest but where has manufacturing survived or even grown? I use Bureau of Labor Statistics data on manufacturing jobs by county for 1967 and 2014. The results were so surprising that I at first could not believe it.

In 1967 the US had 19,423,000 manufacturing jobs, 25% of an employed labor force of 76 million, while in 2014 there were 11,900,000 such jobs, constituting only 8.3 % (that is one-third of the 1967 share). Almost 12 million is still a lot of jobs, and higher productivity probably means that the sheer amount of stuff produced may not have fallen, but the role of manufacturing in employment has certainly shrunk and as we shall see, greatly relocated.

I reproduce a large table, because it is so interesting, indeed so astounding. There are three sections, first counties  with over 25,000 manufacturing jobs in 2014 ( there were far more in 1967), then counties with over 50,000 jobs in 1967, but under 25,000 in 2014,  and third, a few counties with over 4000 manufacturing jobs in 2014, and where these were a high share (over 40%) of the local labor force. These were the some of the winners from geographic relocation.  I also map these changes. The maps include three additional sets of counties: counties with between 10 and 25,000 jobs in 2014, counties with between 25 and 50,000 jobs in 1967, and counties from 33 to 40% in manufacturing in 2014.  These groups are summarized in Table 1.










Table 1: Manufacturing Change 1967-2014 (Measured in 1,000s)
Set # of Counties Character 2014 jobs % 1967 jobs % Change % % Change
1A
19
> 25k in 2014, gain 1,102 718 385 54
1B
50
> 25k in 2014 loss 2,616 6,698 -4,082 -61
2
26
> 50k in 1967 435 2,828 -2,403 -85
3 & 6
58
> 33% manuf in 2014 343 232 111 48
4A
65
10 to 25K in 2014, gain 1,164 682 482 71
4B
71
10 to 25k in 2014, loss 1,018 1,909 -841 -44
5
26
25 to 50k, 1967 355 1,029 -674 -66
Mapped
315
7,083 60 13,555 70 -6,472 87 -48
Unmapped
2,835
4,822 40 5,758 30 -976 13 -17
US
3,170
ALL 11,900 19,323 -7,423 -38

 

The 315 mapped counties include 60% of the 2014 manufacturing jobs and some 70% of the jobs in 1967. It is evident that the counties with high numbers of manufacturing jobs in 1967 bore the brunt of losses from 1967 to 2014. In contrast,   the smaller, mostly unmapped counties lost only modestly as a set. Many larger counties did gain or hold steady, largely outside the traditional manufacturing belt of the north, or from older core counties into new growing suburbs, as we shall see.  Since the losses in the larger mapped counties are so much higher a share of the total jobs in 1967 than in 2014, we have a yet stronger indication of de-concentration.

I’ll begin with the biggest losers, who are on table 2.  Now New York City may be thriving in 2014, but it has utterly transformed from an industrial dominance to a minor backwater -- the four boroughs dropping their industrial employment from almost 900,000 to a paltry 67,000 jobs, a drop of 92.5%.  In New York County (Manhattan) the fall was even more precipitous: 96%. This is not a misprint. Do not turn off your computer! These are joined by an 84% decline for the New Jersey suburbs: 416,000 to 65,000.  Philadelphia, greater Boston, St. Louis, and, yes, especially Baltimore, city and county, experienced the same kind of precipitous decline. Can we begin to understand the basis for riot and unrest in these core cities, whose manufacturing departed as soon as integration opened manufacturing jobs to black workers! As a set, these counties lost 2.83 million manufacturing jobs, a drop of 85%.





Table 2
Set 1:  More than 25,000 Manufacturing Jobs in 1967
County   Manuf Jobs 1967 Manuf Jobs 2014 Change % Change
United States 19,323,000 11,900,000 -7,423,000 -38.2
Snohomish County, Washington 16,000 60,156 44,156 276.0
Harris County, Texas 123,000 164,479 41,479 33.7
San Diego County, California 64,000 97,346 33,346 52.1
Maricopa County, Arizona 59,300 91,348 32,048 54.0
DuPage County, Illinois 24,500 53,913 29,413 120.1
Riverside County, California 17,000 41,519 24,519 144.2
Orange County, California 126,000 150,020 24,020 19.1
Waukesha County, Wisconsin 20,000 43,232 23,232 116.2
Elkhart County, Indiana 31,300 53,705 22,405 71.6
Salt Lake County, Utah 26,000 46,402 20,402 78.5
San Bernardino County, California 30,000 46,822 16,822 56.1
Washington County, Oregon 12,000 27,919 15,919 132.7
Ottawa County, Michigan 16,000 31,831 15,831 98.9
El Paso County, Texas 19,000 31,000 12,000 63.2
Pinellas County, Florida 18,000 28,305 10,305 57.3
Fresno County, California 15,500 25,269 9,769 63.0
Bexar County, Texas 26,000 30,474 4,474 17.2
Suffolk County, New York 49,000 51,967 2,967 6.1
Newport News city, Virginia 25,000 26,503 1,503 6.0
Sum of gaining counties 717,600 1,102,210 384,610 54.0
Tulsa County, Oklahoma 39,000 37,197 -1,803 -4.6
Kent County, Michigan 60,000 57,371 -2,629 -4.4
Tarrant County, Texas 76,000 70,421 -5,579 -7.3
Lake County, Illinois 41,000 35,174 -5,826 -14.2
Kane County, Illinois 39,000 30,327 -8,673 -22.2
Bucks County, Pennsylvania 40,000 27,061 -12,939 -32.3
Greenville County, South Carolina 41,000 26,782 -14,218 -34.7
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire 40,000 25,287 -14,713 -36.8
Sedgwick County, Kansas 56,000 40,629 -15,371 -27.4
Alameda County, California 80,000 63,679 -16,321 -20.4
Multnomah County, Oregon 49,000 32,206 -16,794 -34.3
Santa Clara County, California 120,000 100,981 -19,019 -15.8
York County, Pennsylvania 51,000 31,890 -19,110 -37.5
Lancaster County, Pennsylvania 54,000 33,212 -20,788 -38.5
Guilford County, North Carolina 54,000 32,428 -21,572 -39.9
Winnebago County, Illinois 49,000 25,024 -23,976 -48.9
Berks County, Pennsylvania 56,000 29,439 -26,561 -47.4
Miami-Dade County, Florida 58,000 30,387 -27,613 -47.6
Macomb County, Michigan 94,000 59,114 -34,886 -37.1
Hennepin County, Minnesota 109,000 72,307 -36,693 -33.7
Dallas County, Texas 138,000 94,078 -43,922 -31.8
Oakland County, Michigan 94,000 47,243 -46,757 -49.7
Franklin County, Ohio 76,000 28,991 -47,009 -61.9
Jefferson County, Kentucky 90,000 40,666 -49,334 -54.8
Bristol County, Massachusetts 78,000 26,935 -51,065 -65.5
Middlesex County, New Jersey 82,000 28,277 -53,723 -65.5
Essex County, Massachusetts 94,000 38,451 -55,549 -59.1
Jackson County, Missouri 85,000 25,870 -59,130 -69.6
St. Louis County, Missouri 97,000 35,884 -61,116 -63.0
Summit County, Ohio 93,000 27,965 -65,035 -69.9
King County, Washington 146,000 79,631 -66,369 -45.5
Montgomery County, Pennsylvania 106,000 39,566 -66,434 -62.7
Hamilton County, Tennessee 95,000 25,092 -69,908 -73.6
Bergen County, New Jersey 107,000 33,434 -73,566 -68.8
Marion County, Indiana 120,000 42,808 -77,192 -64.3
New Haven County, Connecticut 115,000 31,792 -83,208 -72.4
Montgomery County, Ohio 110,000 26,188 -83,812 -76.2
Erie County, New York 134,000 42,606 -91,394 -68.2
Hartford County, Connecticut 151,000 57,332 -93,668 -62.0
Monroe County, New York 133,000 38,958 -94,042 -70.7
Fairfield County, Connecticut 130,000 35,507 -94,493 -72.7
Hamilton County, Ohio 152,000 45,901 -106,099 -69.8
Middlesex County, Massachusetts 166,000 59,454 -106,546 -64.2
Worcester County, Massachusetts 165,000 34,677 -130,323 -79.0
Milwaukee County, Wisconsin 181,000 48,963 -132,037 -72.9
Allegheny County, Pennsylvania 195,000 36,428 -158,572 -81.3
Cuyahoga County, Ohio 277,000 69,606 -207,394 -74.9
Wayne County, Michigan 396,000 71,526 -324,474 -81.9
Los Angeles County, California 855,000 359,532 -495,468 -57.9
Cook County, Illinois 831,000 181,315 -649,685 -78.2
Sum of losing counties 6,698,000 2,615,592 -4,082,408 -61.0
Table 2, set 2: Over 50,000 in 1967 and Under 25,000 in 2014
    Manuf Jobs 1967 Manuf Jobs 2014 Change % Change
Bronx NY 59,000 6,000 -53,000 -89.8
Kings NY 220,000 18,000 -202,000 -91.8
Onondaga NY 59,000 19,000 -40,000 -67.8
Queens NY 132,000 22,000 -110,000 -83.3
Westcheste NY 73,000 12,000 -61,000 -83.6
New York,  NY NY 482,000 21,000 -461,000 -95.6
Lucas OH 62,000 16,000 -46,000 -74.2
Stark OH 63,000 23,000 -40,000 -63.5
Philadelphia PA 264,000 23,000 -241,000 -91.3
Providence RI 93,000 22,000 -71,000 -76.3
Fulton GA 65,000 18,000 -47,000 -72.3
Nwcastle DE 53,000 13,000 -40,000 -75.5
Lake IN 98,000 23,000 -75,000 -76.5
Baltimore MD 68,000 11,000 -57,000 -83.8
Baltimoecity MD 107,000 12,000 -95,000 -88.8
Hampden MA 65,000 21,000 -44,000 -67.7
Norfolk MA 58,000 21,000 -37,000 -63.8
Suffolkk MA 85,000 8,000 -77,000 -90.6
Ramsey MN 72,000 23,000 -49,000 -68.1
Essex NJ 124,000 18,000 -106,000 -85.5
Hudson NJ 107,000 8,000 -99,000 -92.5
Passaic NJ 83,000 18,000 -65,000 -78.3
Union NJ 102,000 21,000 -81,000 -79.4
StLouis city MO 132,000 17,000 -115,000 -87.1
San Francisco CA 52,100 7,500 -44,600 -85.6
Delaware PA 59,600 13,000 -46,600 -78.2
2,837,700 434,500 -2,403,200 -85
Table 2, set 3: High Manufacturing Share, Over 4,000 Jobs
Manuf Jobs 1967 Manuf Jobs 2014 Change % Change
Jackson County, Alabama 3,200 5,196 1,996 62.4
Boone County, Illinois 8,300 7,619 -681 -8.2
DeKalb County, Indiana 4,200 8,128 3,928 93.5
LaGrange County, Indiana 1,200 5,141 3,941 328.4
Noble County, Indiana 4,700 8,351 3,651 77.7
Whitley County, Indiana 2,000 4,541 2,541 127.1
Marion County, Iowa 1,400 6,128 4,728 337.7
Ford County, Kansas 1,000 6,272 5,272 527.2
Pontotoc County, Mississippi 1,100 6,199 5,099 463.5
Scott County, Mississippi 2,000 4,883 2,883 144.2
Alexander County, North Carolina 2,600 3,284 684 26.3
Bladen County, North Carolina 1,000 5,565 4,565 456.5
Auglaize County, Ohio 5,300 7,339 2,039 38.5
Shelby County, Ohio 7,900 10,052 2,152 27.2
Williams County, Ohio 5,900 6,337 437 7.4
Elk County, Pennsylvania 9,400 6,587 -2,813 -29.9
Newberry County, South Carolina 3,700 4,831 1,131 30.6
Titus County, Texas 800 5,865 5,065 633.1
Box Elder County, Utah 2,300 6,206 3,906 169.8
Trempealeau County, Wisconsin 1,200 6,418 5,218 434.8
69,200 124,942 55,742 80.0

 

The first set of counties include some winner and more losers.   The winners grew from 718,000 to 1,102,000 jobs, or up 54%, but this is dwarfed by the colossal loss of 4.1 million out of 6.7 million jobs, a loss of 61% in manufacturing jobs.  The losers are somewhat like set 2, just not quite so extreme. Included are the two counties which lost the most—Cook (Chicago) and Los Angeles-  650,000 and 500,000!  Other big losses include Wayne (Detroit), 324,000, Cuyahoga (Cleveland), 207,000, Milwaukee, 132,000, Hamilton (Cincinnati), 106,000, Allegheny (Pittsburgh), 159,000, and Worcester, MA, 136,000.  

The gaining larger counties are the beneficiaries of two forms of de-concentration – from the north to the south and west, and from older core counties to their suburbs.  Growing industrial centers in the south and west include Harris (Houston), San Diego, Maricopa (Phoenix), Fresno, Bexar (San Antonio),  Salt Lake, and Pinellas, FL (St. Petersburg), but as or more important is the growth of suburbs, notably Orange, CA, Suffolk, NY (way out there), San Bernardino-Riverside, Waukesha, WI, Washington, OR, and the biggest winner of all, Snohomish, WA, where Boeing builds big jets, and the home of the late Senator Henry Jackson. This leaves two growing smaller metro areas of the north: Ottawa, MI, and Elkhart, IN, one of the fastest growing and most successful examples of manufacturing and income growth.

Sets 1 and 2 represent the larger manufacturing cores of 1967, 2014 or both. But in 1967 they held 57% of all manufacturing jobs, while in 2014, their share dropped to 35% (10.3 million versus 4.2 million), again illustrating the basic geography of de-concentration.

Sets 3 and set 6 counties, with high manufacturing shares in 2014, include many successful micropolitan or suburban counties in all regions. A few counties with high manufacturing shares in 2014 are suburban, often to smaller metropolitan areas, e.g. Scott, KY, (Lexington). Many more are exurban to medium sized metro areas, as to Springfield, MO, Raleigh, NC, Des Moines, IA or Jackson, MS, and especially 3 counties in northeastern IN, in exurban territory beyond Ft. Wayne and Elkhart.

Some success stories are in more remote small town areas, as AL, AR, TN, MO, OH, SD, NC, SD, TX, and KS, for example, Ford County (Dodge City) and McPherson (Hutchinson Space Center).   

Set 4 counties, with 10,000 to 25,000 manufacturing jobs in 2014, again include both losers (71 counties, losing 841,000 jobs, or 44%) and winners, gaining 682,000 jobs, or 71%.  Losses are not so severe as for the sets 1, 2, and 5 counties, but are still significant, as in PA, 6 more counties, OH, 3 more, NJ, 3 more, MI, 3 more, and 1 each in MN, CT, IN, KS, CO (Denver), and also several in the south, as in AL (Jefferson-Birmingham), TN, (Shelby-Memphis) and Knox, and NC, 2 counties.

Counties gaining the most include 6 TX counties, Travis (Austin), 2 Houston suburbs, 2 Dallas suburbs, and Potter (Amarillo), 5 CA counties, Kern and Merced in the central valley, and suburban Sonoma, Ventura and Napa, 3 Atlanta suburban counties, 3 UT counties, suburban or exurban to Salt Lake, 2 in CO, Weld (Greeley) and Larimer (Ft. Collins), 2 in LA, and in OH (exurban and small town in the west of the  state). Thus almost all are large metro suburbs or smaller independent metro counties. From the list it is clear that these counties well represent the twin trends of suburban-exurban spillover or relocation, as well as the broader de-concentration from the north to the south and west.        

Several set 5 counties, 25,000 to 50,000 jobs in 1967, are also in the set 4 list (10,000 to 25,000 job in 2014), often with significant losses. Some with even higher losses, to under 10,000 manufacturing jobs in 2014, include counties in IL, IN, LA (Orleans), MI, NJ, NY (4 more), and PA (4 more).

What do the maps tell us?

The preceding discussion has probably induced the curious reader to peruse the maps to find places of decline versus growth. The maps show data for only 10 percent of US counties, 315 of 3170.  Yet these contained 70% of manufacturing jobs in 1967, and 60% in 2014.

The 1967 and 2014 maps of jobs in manufacturing depict the broad distribution of loss. Although the sheer density and size of places in the traditional industrial belt of the north stand out, a few big losses in the west, notably Los Angeles and San Francisco, appear. But the rests of the south, the plains and the west suggest a widespread if modest expansion, often in proximity to larger declining counties.

The pattern of change from 1967 to 2014 displays the patterns of change in numbers and rates of growth versus decline.  Losses are largest and almost continuous from Detroit east to Boston, while in the south, the Midwest and west, the big losers are in older, long standing large centers, Like, LA, SF, New Orleans, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis. These are interspersed with growing centers of manufacturing in TX, across the west, but also quite prominent in suburban and exurban and new industrial places in the south and Midwest, e.g. MS, AL, GA, TN, LA and AR,  but in substantial numbers in different areas of OH, IN, MI, WI, IL and MN, KS and MO. While the growth in the burgeoning west and TX might be an expected product of sheer population, and located both in suburbs, as around LA, SF, Portland and Seattle, much was in new independent place such as Boise, Phoenix, Tucson, Salt Lake, Greeley and Ft. Collins, Reno and Las Vegas. In contrast, a pattern of core decline but impressive suburban-exurban growth occurred in parts of the Midwest, in MI, IN, OH, WI, MN, and MO.

Conclusion

Yes, the decline of manufacturing as a dominant part of the labor force is large and rea. But America still makes a lot of stuff, much in quite different places, so that there is no longer a distinctive industrial belt, but in a more dispersed pattern. Many of the older centers of manufacturing, like NY, Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago and Los Angeles, have long since transformed into world centers of services, while others, like Pittsburgh, Detroit and Cleveland appear to be in a process of transformation.

Some may view this transformation and the huge decline in manufacturing jobs as a benign market effect in which the US specializes in services while much of making things is out-sourced to lower cost countries. But in much of the real America far too few equivalent middle class jobs have replaced the lost jobs.  Perhaps what the US needs now is serious innovation in making new kinds of things, and bring manufacturing up to 19 million and beyond! Instead I suspect the ever-wise market will innovate with robots, presaging a time when the country will complete its transformation to an owner and servant society.

Richard Morrill is Professor Emeritus of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Washington. His research interests include: political geography (voting behavior, redistricting, local governance), population/demography/settlement/migration, urban geography and planning, urban transportation (i.e., old fashioned generalist).



















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Excellent statistics. Thank

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