Demographics

Red v. Blue

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The political and cultural war between red and blue America may not be settled in our lifetimes, but it’s clear which side is gaining ground in economic and demographic terms. In everything from new jobs—including new technology employment—fertility rates, population growth, and migration, it’s the red states that increasingly hold the advantage.  read more »

Be Careful When Citing Jane Jacobs: Her Conclusions Don’t Always Hold

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As a professor who teaches about cities and the urban form, I very much appreciate the sidewalk ballets and street-corner societies that have historically existed in our nation’s urban centers. These features of the built-environment have long been powerful factors in the formation of both social capital, community, and a place’s identity.  read more »

Aging in Place—or Trapped in Place?

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As older adults age into later life, they often face disruptive changes that make their dwell­ings, neighborhoods and communities seem less appealing. When they retire and seek new leisure, volunteer or career activities, they may be disappointed by what is available nearby. After their children depart, older adults may feel that their homes are uncomfortably large, and utility costs, property taxes and mortgage payments are overly high. The smaller income stream in retirement can mean that such home expenses become financially burdensome.  read more »

Subjects:

Demographic Undestiny

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Demography becomes destiny, the old adage goes. But many of the most confidently promoted demographic predictions have turned out grossly exaggerated or even dead wrong. In many cases they tend to reflect more the aspirations of pundits and reporters than the actual on-the-ground realities.  read more »

Heartland Intelligence

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There have been some big changes for me. We relocated from New York to Indianapolis, where I’m doing consulting work for the Indy Chamber. I’m no longer full time with the Manhattan Institute but am still a contributing editor at City Journal and still have multiple projects in the works there. I’ll continue to write for other publications too, as with my recent Atlantic piece on J. Irwin Miller and Columbus, Indiana. More on my move below.  read more »

Report: State of Contradiction

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California has been at the vanguard of family change in America. Culturally and legally—from the Human Potential Movement to the passage of no-fault divorce under then-Gov. Ronald Reagan, from Hollywood movies and shows like “The Graduate” and “Friends”—the Golden State has played a central role in pioneering and representing the cultural attitudes that have transformed marriage and family life across the nation.  read more »

Population Growth Concentrated in Auto Oriented Suburbs and Metropolitan Areas

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The suburbs and exurbs continue to dominate population growth in the nation’s 53 major metropolitan areas, according to a City Sector Model (Note 1 and Figure 9) analysis. We traced growth between the 2010 Census and the American Community Survey 5-year data, from samples taken over the period of 2014 to 2018. The middle-year was 2016 (Note 2).

Population Growth by City Sector  read more »

Against Tribal America

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Perhaps nothing so animates the progressive Left today as the notion of an increasingly race-conscious society, segregated by ethnic identity and dismissive of the traditional ideal of assimilation. If this seems ironic, it should—in the not-so-distant past, this was a position embraced by the reactionary Right, particularly in the Jim Crow South.  read more »

US Population Growth Down 1/3 in 5 Years, California Down 85%

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The United States population grew just 0.48% in the year ended July 1, 2019, according to population estimates released on the last day of the year. This is a full one-third decline from the 0.72% growth in 2014. Even that higher rate, typical for the first four years of the decade, was well below the 0.93% rate between 2000 and 2010. This was driven by a decline in the natural growth rate (births minus deaths), which fell from 1,461,000 in 2011 to 957,000 in 2019.  read more »

Walking Around Downtown Brooklyn

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After having lost more than half a million residents between 1950 and 1980 New York’s borough of Brooklyn has regained more than two-thirds of its population loss. The renaissance of Brooklyn is rightfully cited as an urban success story. It initially attracted Millennials and others seeking an urban lifestyle at a lower cost than Manhattan, but now it has also become increasingly more expensive, evidenced by many new high rise luxury condominium buildings.  read more »