Demographics

Suburb & Exurbs Dominate House Building Over Six Decades

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In recent years we have been using the City Sector Model (Figure 6, see City Sector Model Note below) to analyze the extent of urban core, suburban and exurban trends in major metropolitan areas. The City Sector Model gives a more accurate picture of how much modern metropolitan areas are dominated by the automobile oriented suburbanization that has occurred since World War II.  read more »

In California, the “Jungle” Is Predictable

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One doesn’t expect the unexpected in California elections. A progressive Democrat will become governor; Dianne Feinstein will return to the Senate yet again; and so on. Nuances still matter, particularly at the congressional level, in part due to the “jungle primary” system, but nothing much has changed. Statewide, the ideological die, at least for now, is cast.  read more »

6 Forces Disrupting Higher Education

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Universities and health care, “eds and meds”, have been in a huge growth cycle over the last few decades. Many communities have been pinning their hopes on anchor institutions like a university or research hospital to retool their economies for the 21st century.

Yet the higher education industry is facing a convergence of several trends and forces that are threaten their future. At a minimum, schools need to be figuring out how to navigate these choppy waters ahead.  read more »

Brownout

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Jerry Brown’s long political career will likely end in January 2019, when the 80-year-old’s second stint as California governor concludes. In the media’s eyes—and in his own mind—Brown’s gubernatorial encore has been a rousing success.  read more »

The Fight for Our Future Belongs to the ’Burbs

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Look away from President Trump and it’s easier to see how three long-term demographic and geographic trends are reshaping American politics.  read more »

Fertility and Literacy in India’s States

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Higher female literacy is a reliable predictor of lower fertility and improved prosperity.

In a previous article, we highlighted a clear connection in sub-Saharan Africa between a country’s total fertility rate (TFR = average number of children per woman) and its young female literacy rate.  read more »

Subjects:

The Cities Creating The Most White-Collar Jobs, 2018

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Professional and business services have long been identified with the downtowns of cities like New York, Chicago and San Francisco, where lawyers, accountants and architects are thick on the ground. However, in recent years there's been a clear shift in the geography of this vital sector, with some of the strongest job generation emerging far from the high-rise canyons. This shift is of profound importance given that professional and business services is by far the largest high-wage job sector in the U.S.  read more »

More on Bifurcating Chicago and Detroit

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(Note: this past Sunday I wrote a 20-tweet (!), 657-word (!!) tweetstorm that was largely a response to some things from about a month ago. Yeah, I can hold onto a grudge. Anyway, here I'm offering an expanded version of the content from that tweetstorm, but also some elaborations that can provide more clarity and nuance. -Pete)  read more »

Population Growth Slowing in Largest US Municipalities

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The 2017 Census Bureau population estimates shows that population growth in the nation’s largest municipalities (incorporated cities and equivalent) has declined substantially relative to the healthier gains posted earlier in the decade.  read more »

The Arab Tradition of Enterprise

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In the 1940s, American oil workers in Saudi Arabia stumbled across ruins in the desert. They had found Qaryat al-Fāw, a pre-Islamic city located deep in the deserts of the Arabian Peninsula. When the sand was dug up, the remains of a trading hub bustling with houses, squares, and a large marketplace was discovered. Centuries before the birth of Islam, caravans carrying textiles, minerals, and grains across Arabia had passed through the city. Its inhabitants had worked in trade and agriculture, and relied on seventeen local wells for water.  read more »