London Murder Rate Exceeds NYC for the First Time

The Sunday Times reports an ominous finding for London (the Greater London Authority, as opposed to the larger metropolitan area that includes the suburban development outside the greenbelt), with a murder rate that exceeded that of the city of New York for the first time (in February). The story is summarized in a video by The Evening Standard, which also provides detailed coverage of the Sunday Times report (behind a paywall). London’s murder rate has increased 40 percent in just three years, according to the report. The report notes that the New York murder rate has declined 87 percent since 1990, since the 1990s, an accomplishment for which former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has received considerable credit, including in academic research.

Meanwhile, early reports are that things are getting worse. While there were 15 murders in London in February, the Daily Mail reports that this increased by nearly half to 22 in March.


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Is this one month? Two?

New York, 2018 = 50 Murders so far
London, 2018 = 47 Murders so far

New York, 2017 = 290 Murders
London, 2017 = 116 Murders

New York, 2016 = 334 Murders
London, 2016 = 102 Murders

So other than the current year, New York usually has a little more than twice the murder rate in London.

It certainly appears that London must have had a bad few months this year, and New York apparently is having a very good year.

But looking at periods of less than a year is like looking out the window and concluding that New York has passed London in temperature, and will be warmer from now on.